Reilly Opelka vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Prediction – ATP Italian Open Semifinals
- Reilly Opelka and Rafael Nadal will face each other in the semifinals of the Italian Open on Saturday, May 15th
- This will be the first time these two players have played each other
- Continue below for this semifinal match odds and how each player got to this point of the tournament
The first semifinal is set in Rome as Reilly Opelka will take on No. 2 seed Rafael Nadal tomorrow, Saturday, May 15th. The time is still TBD.
Like most clay court matches, it’s no surprise that once again, Nadal enters as the heavy favorite with -1250 odds compared to Opelka’s +800. But the American has definitely put on a show this past week, and has yet to drop a set.
Who’s most likely to book their spot in the finals here in Rome? Take a look at the odds, and our best bet predictions below.
Reilly Opelka vs Rafael Nadal Italian Open Semifinal Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total at DraftKings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reilly Opelka | +4.5 (+112) | +800 | Ov 20.5 (-110) |
| [2] Rafael Nadal | -4.5 (-143) | -1250 | Un 20.5 (-114) |
Odds as of May 14th.
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Opelka Serving His Way Through Rome
The 23-year old American has put on a serving show this tournament, as he’s recorded a total of 77 aces over his past four matches. In his quarterfinal win against Argentine qualifier Federico Delbonis, Opelka recorded 18 aces in the match alone to win 7-5, 7(7)-6(2).
In just over an hour and a half, the American saved all four break points he faced, and didn’t lose his serve. He’s actually yet to lose his serve or a set all tournament.
The Opelka kick serve is WILD! 🤯@ReillyOpelka #IBI21 pic.twitter.com/N2rQczhLBN
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) May 14, 2021
With the win Opelka earned his spot in the final four in Rome, and reached his maiden Masters 1000 semifinal. The only thing standing between him and a final appearance is the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal.
King of Clay
After a slight scare in his Round of 16 match where he dropped his first set against Denis Shapovalov, Nadal looked to have put that behind him, as he easily defeated Alexander Zverev 6-3, 6-4 to earn his spot in the semis.
It was just a week ago that Zverev defeated Nadal in the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open, but the nine-time champion here in Rome was able to avenge that loss, defeat Zverev, and improve his head-to-head record against the German to 6-3.
On his way to his 12th semifinal here in Rome, Nadal landed 70 percent of his first serves, and actually found success with a 71 percent winning percentage on his second serve. Rafa built a strong lead of 4-0 to start the match, but allowed for Zverev to start to comeback. He then continued to target the German’s backhand, which allowed for him to further his lead, and eventually take the match.
The Spaniard is undefeated at the semifinals here in Rome, boasting an impressive 11-0 record. He’ll be looking to extend that record as he takes on a much less experienced Opelka on Saturday.
Head-to-Head & Best Bet
As mentioned, this will be the first time these two players have seen each other. It’s almost expected that Nadal is here in the semifinals, but Opelka has definitely surprised some of us, The 23-year old has really worked his way through the tournament playing strong tennis. Coming into Rome, Opelka was riding a six-game losing streak.
Reilly Opelka vs Rafael Nadal Head-to-Head Stats
| 47 | ATP Rankings | 3 |
| 23 | Age | 34 |
| 2 | Career Singles Titles | 87 |
| 49/53 | Career Singles W/L | 1017/207 |
| 0 | YTD Singles Titles | 1 |
| 2/7 | YTD Singles W/L | 13/3 |
| 0 | Head-to-Head | 0 |
Again, do you really bet against Nadal on clay? I guess the answer isn’t as clear as it once was. The 34-year old is still very dominant on the surface, but has dropped a few matches here and there.
Opelka should be able to give Nadal some trouble from his serve. This has been without a doubt, the American’s strongest part of his game this week. But Nadal’s skills on clay might just be too much for the young player.
I think it would be safe to say that if Opelka was going up against any other player with the numbers he’s recorded this week, the odds would be much closer, he would maybe even be the favorite. But for this match, there really doesn’t seem to be a reason Nadal doesn’t book his spot in the final on Sunday and becomes one step closer to winning his 10th title at the Italian Open.
The Pick: Nadal (-1250) OR Nadal 2-0 (-286)
A graduate of Sport Media at Ryerson University, Hayley is the ultimate student of sports. Whether she is playing it, watching it, debating it, or writing it, it's safe to assume sport consumes the majority of her life. She has worked both internationally and with the NBA.
