Over/Unders on CFP Rankings; Best Bets for Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, PSU & More
- The initial College Football Playoff rankings are due out on Tuesday, Nov. 5th
- Sportsbooks have released over/unders on where certain contenders will be ranked
- Will undefeated Baylor be among the top-13 teams?
The first College Football Playoff poll is set to be released on Tuesday morning (Nov. 5th). While we have a pretty good idea of who the CFP’s top-four teams will be, the rest is a bit hazy. These rankings are important; remember that 11 of the 20 teams that have debuted in the top-four have gone to the four-team College Football Playoff.
Below, we’re looking outside of the top four, as Sportsbooks have released over-unders for the second-tier of contenders will be ranked. There’s some good value on the board with three of these squads in particular, so let’s take a closer look at the betting lines.
Over/Under Initial College Football Playoff Ranking
| Team | Initial CFP Ranking | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 5.0 | -140 | +100 |
| Georgia | 6.0 | -120 | -120 |
| Oregon | 7.0 | -120 | -120 |
| Oklahoma | 8.0 | -180 | +140 |
| Utah | 9.0 | -120 | -120 |
| Minnesota | 11.5 | -120 | -120 |
| Baylor | 13.5 | -180 | +140 |
Odds taken November 4.
Penn State Nittany Lions: Over 5
Although I don’t think there’s a ton of value here with these four-team playoff odds as I do expect Penn State to come out as the No. 5 team in the first set of rankings, you might consider betting the over because I don’t see under as a realistic outcome.
The top four teams in the country are going to be LSU, Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson. Those teams are all undefeated, they all entered the year ranked higher than Penn State and, outside of Clemson, they’ve all impressed. Clemson is the defending national champion; they won’t open below No. 4.
The Penn State — Ohio State matchup will be televised on FOX with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt.
No word yet on game time. It may not be announced until after the weekend pic.twitter.com/GTYGUvhfCB
— Barstool Penn State (@PSUBarstool) November 4, 2019
Penn State should be No. 5. They’re undefeated at 8-0 and everyone immediately below them in the AP Poll has at least one loss. If there is a surprise here, though, it’s that they’ll be sixth or higher; not fourth or lower. That being the case, I see some value with the over at +100.
Baylor Bears Under 14.5
It’s not surprising that the Baylor isn’t getting much love. But the much-ignored Bears should open south of 13.5 in the first College Football Playoff ranking.
Baylor is currently No. 11 in the AP Top 25 and is No. 10 in the Coaches Poll. The oddsmakers are saying that the Selection Committee could drop them at least three/four spots. I don’t see that happening.
Charlie Brewer flying up and over for the TD. pic.twitter.com/5vmGhK7M2d
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 17, 2018
There will be the argument that Baylor hasn’t really played anyone and that’s true – to an extent. The Big 12 is filled with so-so teams, and wins over Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are credible. The other factor here is this team is undefeated. That should count for something.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor is placed ahead of a two-loss Florida team or maybe even a one-loss Utah team. That being the case, they’ll be way under 13.5.
Minnesota Golden Gophers Over 11.5
There’s no question that the Golden Gophers have had an impressive season. Like Baylor, they’re another undefeated squad (8-0) that is flying under the radar. The difference here is I don’t think Minnesota is nearly as good as their record suggests and I don’t think the experts are going to rate them highly.
Taking a look at their last four wins, they’ve come against Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska and Illinois. Those teams are a combined 6-18 in Big Ten play. This is a Minnesota team that struggled with South Dakota State in their opener and needed double-overtime to beat Fresno State.
WHAT A GAME! WHAT A GAME!@GopherFootball defense comes up CLUTCH!
Golden Gophers 38 Bulldogs 35 pic.twitter.com/oyiwHK9GsC
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 8, 2019
In short, Minnesota has played an even softer schedule than Baylor, but that will change shortly. Three of their next four games are against teams ranked between No. 5 and No. 16.
At any rate, No. 11 is too high for this squad. It would mean you’re putting them ahead of Baylor, Florida, Auburn and potentially a team like Oklahoma.
I don’t see that happening. This team should be ranked 12th or worse in the initial College Football Playoff ranking.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
