The Toronto Maple Leafs can move within a game of advancing on Wednesday night when they host the Boston Bruins in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series at Scotiabank Arena (7:00 pm ET).
The Maple Leafs took a 2-1 series lead on Monday with a thrilling 3-2 win on home ice.
Opening Odds for Game 4
The Maple Leafs opened as slight favorites for Game 4, sitting at -120 on the moneyline, while Boston started at +100. The game total is once again at 6.0, just like in Games 1, 2, and 3.
Bruins vs Maple Leafs Statistical Comparison
|49-24-9 (20-15-6 away)||Record||46-28-8 (23-16-2 home)|
|257 (11th)||Goals For||286 (4th)|
|212 (3rd)||Goals Against||249 (20th)|
|52.89 (5th)||Fenwick %||50.82 (11th)|
|91.23 (7th)||Save %||90.84 (10th)|
|51.14 (14th)||High-Danger Chances %||54.95 (3rd)|
*All stats from regular season.
Takeaways from Games 1-3
Unsurprisingly, the main takeaway from the first three games is that Toronto is better equipped to win more wide-open, free-flowing games, while the Bruins are better equipped to win slower, grind-it-out affairs.
Game 1 was the former, and the Leafs’ speed was the difference. Mitch Marner (2 goals) in particular dominated the action.
In Game 2, Boston uglied it up, so to speak, playing a more passive defensive style while making a concerted effort to increase their physicality.
The result was a dominant 4-1 win in which Boston outshot Toronto 41-31.
In Game 3, without the suspended Nazem Kadri, Toronto somewhat ironically got the win thanks in large part to its depth. The Leafs’ top line of Marner-John Tavares-Zach Hyman played Boston’s top-line (Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak) to an effective stalemate, while the Auston Matthews-Andreas Johnsson-Kasperi Kapanen line had roughly a +17% Relative Corsi and the fourth line of Trevor Moore-Frederick Gauthier-Tyler Ennis generated the massively important opening goal.
Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak now have just 6 points through three games (0.67 PPG) after averaging 1.24 PPG during the regular season.
Frederik Andersen has outplayed Boston’s Tuukka Rask in net, but both have been very good. Andersen has an outlandish .939 SV% through three games, while Rask is at a solid .928 himself.
Streaks and Trends
Over the past ten games, Boston is a so-so 4-6-0 going back to the regular season. Toronto is also a run-of-the-mill 4-4-2 in its past ten.
Betting-wise, the Bruins have a fairly average 43-42 puckline record. Not great, but better than Toronto, which is 37-48.
Remember that there is no 3-on-3 overtime or shootout in the postseason. They keep playing at full strength (barring penalties) until someone scores to break the tie. Five-on-five play becomes even more crucial in the postseason.