The best-of-seven series between the Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks comes down to a win-or-go-home Game 7 at SAP Center in San Jose on Tuesday (10:00 pm ET).
After falling behind 3-1 in the series, the Sharks have staved off elimination in back-to-back games, despite getting outshot in both Game 5 and Game 6.
Game 1: Vegas 2 – 5 San Jose
Game 2: Vegas 5 – 3 San Jose
Game 3: San Jose 3 – 6 Vegas
Game 4: San Jose 0 – 5 Vegas
Game 5: Vegas 2 – 5 San Jose
Game 6: San Jose 2 – 1 Vegas (OT)
Game 7 Opening Odds
The Game 7 odds opened with both the Knights and the Sharks at -110 and the total at 5.5, shaded heavily towards the OVER (-125) compared to the UNDER (+105).
After averaging 8.0 GPG in the first three games of the series, the teams have combined to score just 15 goals in the last three (5.0 GPG). The biggest change on that front has been the play of Sharks goalie Martin Jones, who has stopped 88 of the last 91 shots he’s faced, including 58 of 59 in Game 6.
Vegas vs San Jose Statistical Comparison (Reg. Season)
|43-32-7 (19-20-2 away)||Record||46-27-9 (25-11-5 home)|
|246 (T13th)||Goals For||289 (T 2nd)|
|228 (10th)||Goals Against||258 (21st)|
|54.49 (2nd)||Fenwick %||54.10 (3rd)|
|90.5 (15th)||Save %||88.9 (31st)|
|56.09 (1st)||High-Danger Chances %||53.31 (7th)|
Game 7 Preview
The Knights were able to jump out to a 3-1 lead in the series largely thanks to a marked advantage in net. Marc-Andre Fleury (.912 SV%, -0.55 GSAA) vastly outplayed Martin Jones (.906 SV%, -1.49 GSAA) in the first four games, but as mentioned, Jones has completely rewritten than narrative in the last two.
Now, San Jose is primed to pull off a huge comeback story despite getting out-chanced significantly in the series as a whole. Vegas holds the edge in Fenwick (54.13% vs 45.87%), Expected Goals For (53.38% vs 46.62%), and High Danger Chances (50.9% vs 49.1%).
Another big part of Vegas’ early success in the series was the play of Mark Stone (6 G, 10 PTS), Max Pacioretty (4 G, 10 PTS), and Paul Stastny (2 G, 8 PTS). But San Jose shutdown Vegas’ de facto top line in Games 5 and 6, holding them off the scoresheet completely.
Stone and Stastny were particularly quiet in the last two, combining for just five shots in over seven periods of action.
Meanwhile, San Jose has gotten timely production from most of its top-six forwards. Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl have combined for five goals over the last two games.
On the backend, Norris-contender Brent Burns has been held off the scoresheet in five straight games, but did have a 59% Corsi and team-high 26 minutes of ice-time in Game 5.
Streaks and Trends
Over the past ten games (including the last four of the regular season), Vegas is a so-so 4-5-1, while San Jose is 5-5-0 over that same stretch.
When it comes to spread-betting, the Golden Knights are a terrible 35-53 against the puckline. But San Jose hasn’t been a money maker either, going 36-52.
Keep in mind that OT in the postseason is 5-on-5 and there are no shootouts. They keep playing 5-on-5 until someone scores to break the tie. Teams’ strength 5-on-5 becomes more important come playoff time.