The Washington Capitals have a chance to end their best-of-seven series with the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at PNC Arena in Raleigh (7:00 pm ET). The Capitals lead the series 3-2 after crushing the Hurricanes 6-0 in Game 5 in the most dominant performance of the series so far.
Despite getting throttled last time out, the Hurricanes are opened as -116 favorites on the moneyline, with Washington at -105. The home team has won every game in the series so far.
Series Takeaways So Far
The defending champions have been up and down in the series so far. Realistically, they are only a game up on Carolina thanks to goaltending.
Braden Holtby has recorded a .923 SV% and 1.24 Goals Save Above Average (GSAA). At the other end, Petr Mrazek has been far worse with a .890 SV% and -3.22 GSAA. Holtby’s playoff pedigree has been a huge difference maker.
The Capitals have also gotten better performances from their stars up front. Nicklas Backstrom lead the team with 5 goals and 8 points in 5 games, while Alex Ovechkin has 3 G and 7 PTS. Evgeny Kuznetsov has been fairly quiet (0 G, 5 PTS) just like in the regular season, but Washington’s top-six are still getting the job done, on the whole.
Heading into the playoffs, Carolina knew it would need a huge performance from either Mrazek or first-line center Sebastian Aho to win this series (potentially both). But with just three points in the first five games, Aho (1 G, 3 PTS) hasn’t lived up to expectations in his first postseason.
Warren Foegele leads the team with 3 G and 5 PTS, that comes after scoring just ten times in 77 regular-season games.
The good news for Carolina is that they have dominated the possession and shot metrics. Their 54.93% Fenwick is second in the playoffs to Columbus. If they can find a way to convert one or two more chances, they will be in good shape to pull the upset.
That said, the Hurricanes have long been a team that’s underperformed compared to their shot-share.
Capitals vs Hurricanes Statistical Comparison (Reg. Season)
|49-24-9 (24-15-2 away)||Record||46-28-8 (24-13-4 home)|
|257 (11th)||Goals For||286 (4th)|
|212 (3rd)||Goals Against||249 (20th)|
|52.89 (5th)||Fenwick %||50.82 (11th)|
|91.23 (7th)||Save %||90.84 (10th)|
|51.14 (14th)||High-Danger Chances %||54.95 (3rd)|
Streaks and Trends
When it comes to recent performance, Washington is a pedestrian 6-4-0 over the past ten, including the last five games of the regular season. Carolina is also an uninspiring 6-3-1 over that same stretch.
Betting-wise, the Capitals are subpar 41-46 against the puckline, but that’s still be better than Carolina at 40-47.
Keep in mind that overtime in the postseason is 5-on-5 and there are no shootouts. It’s 5-on-5 until there’s a winner. Ignore OT and shootout records when it comes to playoff bets.