Upcoming Match-ups

Baker Mayfield Still Favored to Throw More Touchdown Passes Than Daniel Jones

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated May 1, 2020 · 10:13 AM PDT

Baker Mayfield in shotgun with the Browns
Will Baker Mayfield finish with more touchdown passes than Daniel Jones? Photo by Erik Drost (Wikimedia)
  • Daniel Jones had four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) in his debut as a starter last week
  • Baker Mayfield has just three touchdowns and five interceptions through three games
  • Which much maligned QB will end up throwing more touchdowns this season?

There were a lot of tweets and memes comparing Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones this past week. Jones, of course, led the New York Giants back from 18 points down in his scintillating starting debut. That comeback came about one month after Mayfield bashed Jones in a GQ interview, for no apparent reason.

As for Mayfield’s on-field performance, his Cleveland Browns stumbled on Sunday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams, and his much-hyped team is off to a very disappointing 1-2 start.

Which quarterback will have the better season? That’s the subject of the latest 2019 NFL prop bet.

Odds to Have More TDs: Baker Mayfield vs Daniel Jones

Player Odds
Baker Mayfield -140
Daniel Jones EVEN

*Odds taken on 09/25/19 

Mayfield, Browns Offense Has Struggled To Start 2019

When Baker Mayfield was chugging beers and talking confidently in the offseason, many people felt the Browns were a team on the rise. They thought was that Mayfield, along with Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, David Njoku and Nick Chubb, would form an explosive offense – one of the best in the NFL.

YouTube video

It’s been a really ugly start to the season, though, as the Browns were spanked 43-13 in their home opener by the Tennessee Titans. After handling the injury-riddled New York Jets (23-3) in underwhelming fashion, they lost again at home to the Los Angeles Rams (20-13).

Worse yet has been how they’ve lost. Mayfield has been a below-average starter, throwing five interceptions and coughing up a fumble in just three games. He’s completing just 56.9% of his passes and is really struggling with pressure – something that he did well with in college.

Giants-Browns Continue To Be Linked Together

The Giants and Browns have been linked together since the offseason when the two franchises made several trades. That includes star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. being traded from the Giants to the Browns, as well as Olivier Vernon and Kevin Zeitler in a separate deal.

From those points, fans and bettors have been eyeing the two to see which team will perform better. Of course, the Browns – who were supposed to be the best team in the AFC North – have underachieved with just one win in three games. It’s somewhat startling that they have the same record as the Giants.

YouTube video

The difference here appears to be the offensive lines. The Giants got a big boost with Zeitler, while the Browns are having a tough time protecting Mayfield. That could be the key to their seasons and the key to betting this prop.

Will Browns Sort This Out?

What’s becoming quite evident is that Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens is a bit over his skis as a head coach. As the offensive coordinator last season, the Browns took off. As the head coach, he seems lost on the sidelines.

That was quite evident on a fourth-and-nine play against the Rams where Kitchens called a draw. That was the first time in NFL history (since they started tracking data, anyway) that a draw was called on fourth-and-nine or longer.

YouTube video

What’s bizarre here is we should be seeing a continuation of strong play from last season. Instead, this entire unit looks disjointed. Mayfield is having a bit of a sophomore slump, the line can’t protect hime, and the running game is only a modest factor.

The oddsmakers expect this to change but there’s no indication it will. Remember that Mayfield was favored by seven touchdowns in the preseason on this prop. Now he’s just a slight favorite.

Jones The Better Bet

Of course, everyone is excited about Daniel Jones after one start. The excitement is palpable and everyone has gone from trashing him to anointing him as the next legend. At the same time, it’s quite telling that he has two TD passes in just one game while Mayfield had just three after three contests.

YouTube video

I like Jones to win this prop because his team should be in lots of high-scoring games this season. The Giants defense is bad but with a decent offensive line and a reasonable cast of targets, Jones should do well. He’s already shown great rapport with Evan Engram, who is a special tight end, and Sterling Shepard, who is a good young wideout.

Remember, he thrived without Saquon Barkley in the lineup last week and the team is going to get Golden Tate back (after his four-game suspension) soon.

YouTube video

What I like most about Jones – and we are extrapolating a lot from one start – is that he looks like he’s doing what Mayfield did last year: making everyone around him better.

The team is reinvigorated and he’s elevating the play of the cast. At even-money, I’ll take a shot with the rookie.

Author Image