Caps’ John Carlson Now -500 to Win the Norris; Who’s the Value Bet with More than 50 Games to Play?
- Washington’s John Carlson is the runaway leader in the 2020 Norris Trophy odds
- His closest competition is Dougie Hamilton, with a handful of long shots fading fast
- With over half the season to go, is the Norris already Carlson’s?
John Carlson is having an outstanding season for the Washington Capitals.
Through 31 games, he has 11 goals and 32 assists. He’s fifth in points among all players, and was just named the NHL’s First Star of the Week.
To top it off, we have yet to hit the halfway mark of the NHL season, and he’s already a heavy -500 favorite for the Norris Trophy.
2019/20 Norris Trophy Odds
| Player | 2019/20 Points | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson, WAS | 43 | -500 | 83.3% |
| Dougie Hamilton, CAR | 28 | +400 | 20% |
| Roman Josi, NSH | 25 | +600 | 14.3% |
| Cale Makar, COL | 28 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Keith Yandle, FLA | 26 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Victor Hedman, TB | 27 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Erik Karlsson, SJ | 24 | +3300 | 2.9% |
Odds taken December 9
Carlson’s -500 odds (and their corresponding 83.3% implied probability) look ridiculous considering where we are in the year. But if you look at the trends in the 2020 Norris Trophy odds, this is in line with how the futures have been moving this year.
Entering the season, Victor Hedman was the favorite, and it lasted for about a week. On October 11, he was listed at +600, while Carlson had improved to +900. That’s the last time John Carlson trailed anyone in the race.
Most points by a defenceman prior to the 30-game mark since 1967-68
Bobby Orr (1974-75) 55
Bobby Orr (1972-73) 52
Bobby Orr (1971-72) 45
Bobby Orr (1970-71) 45
Bobby Orr (1969-70) 41
Al MacInnis (1990-91) 41#ALLCAPS John Carlson (2019-20) 40— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) December 4, 2019
Playing at better than a point-per-game pace, Carlson’s numbers have nearly lapped the field.
John Carlson vs. The Field
| 11 | Goals | 10 |
| 32 | Assists | 23 |
| 43 | Points | 28 |
| +20 | Plus/Minus | +19 |
| 13 | Power Play Points | 15 |
| 0.49 | Goals Created/Game | 0.36 |
While the margin is slim in some categories, Carlson leads all defensemen in goals, assists, points, and goals-created-per-game. He’s third in power play points, trailing Yandle and Hedman (15) as well as Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes (14).
In a weird way, though, it almost makes his season more impressive.
Power Play Point Percentage
| Player | Total Points | Power Play Points | Power Play Point % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson, WAS | 43 | 13 | 30.2% |
| Dougie Hamilton, CAR | 28 | 10 | 35.7% |
| Roman Josi, NSH | 25 | 11 | 44% |
| Cale Makar, COL | 28 | 12 | 42.9% |
| Keith Yandle, FLA | 26 | 15 | 57.8% |
| Victor Hedman, TB | 27 | 15 | 55.5% |
| Erik Karlsson, SJ | 24 | 7 | 29.2% |
Of the contenders, Carlson has the second-lowest power play point percentage, which means he’s been doing 70% of his damage at even strength.
10 @NHL players on pace for at least 100 points entering Dec. 9 games:
Draisaitl 136
McDavid 133
MacKinnon 127
Marchand 120
Pastrnak 118
Carlson 114
Eichel 111
Panarin 102
Barkov 102
Huberdeau 1023 others who are close:
P. Kane 98
Kucherov 97
Malkin 97— Pete Jensen ? (@NHLJensen) December 9, 2019
Brent Burns finished with 33.7% last year, while Erik Karlsson logged a 31.7% in 2015/16. Those were the two highest-scoring seasons in the past four years by a defenseman. Mark Giordano won the Norris last year with a 28.4% mark, finishing with 74 points.
Carlson is on pace for 114 points. That would be just the third time a defender eclipsed 100 points since 1990.
Can the Field Catch Carlson?
That’s essentially the question we have to ask ourselves to figure out if there is a bet worth making here. There are plenty of defensemen having great seasons, but right now, Carlson is having an all-time year.
Here’s how the rest stack up.
2020 Norris Contender Totals
| Player | Goals | Assists | Team Goals For | Corsi For % | Point Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dougie Hamilton, CAR | 10 | 18 | 52 | 57.3% | 5.8 |
| Roman Josi, NSH | 7 | 18 | 47 | 55.2% | 4.0 |
| Cale Makar, COL | 8 | 20 | 52 | 50% | 4.4 |
| Keith Yandle, FLA | 3 | 23 | 46 | 48.8% | 3.8 |
| Victor Hedman, TB | 7 | 20 | 44 | 49.7% | 3.6 |
| Erik Karlsson, SJ | 3 | 21 | 42 | 54.0% | 3.6 |
*Corsi and Point Shares taken from Hockey Reference.
For reference, Carlson’s Caps have scored 10 more goals than the Hurricanes or Avalanche have with Hamilton and Makar on the ice. Alternatively, his Corsi % (50.9) slots in the middle of the pack.
Understandably, his point shares are way up (7.8).
Though his #TBLightning lost 5-4 to the Wild on Thursday to continue their sluggish start to 2019-20, Victor Hedman recorded a milestone goal that joined him with 6 other countrymen on this career NHL (regular season) list pic.twitter.com/SMRirX1tdB
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) December 6, 2019
Here’s the thing, though. Hamilton, Josi, Yandle and Hedman are all on career-high paces. So while they have to hope Carlson slows down, they also have to keep it up.
Norris Race Untouchable with John Carlson on Top
At this point, the numbers are so skewed towards Carlson that he has no value.
If there’s a slight dip in his performance and he slides back to the pack? There will be a much more palatable price you can grab him at if you think his hot start can carry him through.
In terms of the field, there’s so much separation that finding true value is tough. If you really want to bet this prop, Josi offers the best value, while Hedman would be a good long-term play.
But taking everything into consideration, waiting this out and revisiting things in the New Year is your best bet.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
