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NFL Betting – SB 50: It’s Kind of a Big Deal (Updated)

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers (-6, 45 o/u) [Note: the spread is now Carolina -5.5 at most sportsbooks.]

Hollywood loves a good remake: a proven story that works, recast with the biggest stars of today. It’s so simple to bring to life and almost always a guaranteed moneymaker. But if any Hollywood executives are looking to see a real-life remake take place, they may want to drive up to Santa Clara on February 7 around 6:30 PM. That’s where Peyton Manning will try to replicate a script written by John Elway 18 years earlier and lead the Denver Broncos (14-4) to an upset win over the Carolina Panthers (18-1) in Super Bowl 50.

Back in Super Bowl XXXII, it was an aging Elway – a quarterback known for his playoff shortcomings – taking on a heavily favored Packers team that was led by the league’s reigning MVP, an energetic and unconventional QB named Brett Favre. In Elway’s previous playoff failures, he had never had a truly great supporting cast, but in 1997, the team around him finally picked up the slack. On a day when Elway went just 12 of 22 for 123 yards, the Broncos run game and defense led them to a 31-24 upset of the defending champs.

Now in Super Bowl 50… well, I think you can see the similarities: the aging Manning is known for his playoff shortcomings; the Broncos are decent sized underdogs with a spread that’s only growing; and the Panthers have the league’s soon-to-be MVP, an energetic and unconventional QB named Cam Newton.

Of course, that script has undergone rewrites thanks to Manning this year. In ’97, Elway had a good regular season and Denver actually had the league’s top offense. This year, Manning was pretty ineffective while Denver’s defense carried the team through the early part of the schedule. But injuries allowed him to take time off immediately following the worst game of his career in Week 10. Then, the 39-year-old returned just in time to secure homefield advantage in Week 17, which came in real handy last weekend in a tight 20-18 win over New England.

Elway, now the Broncos’ general manager, is another reason Manning has the opportunity to win a ring this late in his career. He went all-out building a championship defense after Denver got manhandled by the Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII. Bringing in high priced names like Aqib Talib, Demarcus Ware, and T.J. Ward helped, but what put the Broncos D over the top this season was the hiring of Wade Phillips.

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This man is the architect of destruction. Seriously!

Switching back to a 3-4 defense allowed the Broncos’ best pass rushers, Ware and Von Miller, to get after QBs. Denver had the top passing defense in the league this season and put a beating on Tom Brady to help secure the AFC Championship.

The Broncos D might be the league’s best, but the reason Carolina is a big favorite is that they’re truly potent on both sides of the ball.

While Elway built his team with a “win now” mentality, Carolina has been building to this season for years. After drafting Newton first overall in 2011, the team has been steadily improving each year. That build-up culminated this year in an incredible 15-1 season, in which the offense led the NFL in scoring with 500 points.

The defense was nearly as efficient, finishing sixth in points and yards allowed and leading the league in takeaways. And the unit did it with home-grown talent; seven of Carolina’s starting eleven were drafted by the team in the last decade.

So who wants it more? A Carolina team on its way up, or a Denver team on its way out? Let’s dive deeper into the matchup.

Offense: 

This Denver offense doesn’t exactly have Terrell Davis running the ball, but they are committed to a balance between run and pass. In fact, the Broncos will stick with the run game even when it’s not working because they know C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman are capable of ripping off a big gain at any moment. Each back had five carries this year that went for over 20 yards. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina’s workhorse back, only had four. Of course, that stubbornness when the run isn’t working might explain why the Broncos had the second-most three-and-out drives in the league.

Carolina leads the league in rushing attempts because they get consistent returns from the combination of Stewart running up the middle and Newton taking off outside on the option. Plus they have the extra punch of fullback Mike Tolbert on third and shorts. The trio helped the Panthers lead the league in rushing touchdowns and finish second in yards.

The difference in the makeup of each team’s passing game is also an interesting contrast. Denver has two go-to receivers on the outside in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The duo made up almost 58-percent of Denver’s passing offense this season, including catching 12 of 19 passing TDs.

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Why did the Bears trade this guy again?

Newton’s go-to target can be found over the middle: tight end Greg Olsen led the team with 77 catches, 1,104 yards, and seven touchdowns. But after Olsen, the passing offense just rolls with the hot hand. The Panthers top four wide receivers (Ted Ginn Jr, Jericho Cotchery, Corey Brown, and Devin Funchess) all had over 30 catches and 400 yards this season and combined for 22 touchdowns. Outside of Sanders and Thomas, the only other Bronco to reel in over 30 catches and 400 yards was TE Owen Daniels.

Manning and Newton finished the season with identical 59.8-percent completion rates, but what they did with those completions was vastly different. Newton set a career high with 35 pass TDs and threw just ten interceptions, while Manning threw just nine TDs and 17 interceptions in ten games. While most of that has to do with Manning’s declining arm strength, some of the blame goes to his offensive line. The Broncos have surrendered 104 QB hits in 18 games this year, 40 more than the Panther o-line.

Defense:

We lauded Phillips and the Broncos league-leading pass rush, but don’t discount the Carolina rush, which racked up 44 sacks to finish sixth in the NFL. But Denver showed last week they can have a dominant rush when just sending three or four guys. If their lineman find the same success they had against New England, they’ll be free to drop seven and eight guys into coverage again and really force Newton to be sharp with his passes.

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Von Miller is nuts, and he will gently remind you of that.

Carolina is a little more reliant on the blitz to help apply pressure, but Manning and this o-line had some trouble recognizing and stopping blitzes last week. Perhaps the most important battle for Denver will be stopping the interior push of DT Kawann Short, who had a breakout season with 11 sacks.

The heart and soul of this Panthers D is in the middle, where linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis patrol. Not only are they forces against the run, but they can play the pass just as well: both backers had four interceptions this year and Kuechly added two more in the playoffs. Davis may have trouble catching the ball if he plays with a broken arm; nevertheless, he should be able to help Carolina’s banged-up secondary slow down the Broncos’ passing attack.

On the outside, Josh Norman is the lockdown corner who will likely cover Thomas most of the game and that means Sanders will draw a favorable matchup against Robert McClain or Cortland Finnegan. But don’t look for Manning to force balls where they shouldn’t go. Since he returned to the lineup in Week 17, Manning seems to have recognized his own limitations and adjusted; he hasn’t thrown an interception in 78 pass attempts.

The Broncos defense won’t have any easier time getting the ball away from Newton. The quarterback has just two interceptions in his last ten games and the Panthers only have one turnover in these playoffs. But the Broncos defense does match up well with this Panther passing game. They have three good-to-great corners in Talib, Chris Harris Jr, and Bradley Roby, who should be able to win their battles with the Panthers good-but-not-great receivers.

If all that holds true, this game will be decided up the middle, where the Broncos will try to stop Stewart and Newton in the ground game, and Olsen in the pass game. They did a decent job containing Rob Gronkowski last week, until the fourth quarter, when the freakish tight end had 77 yards and a TD. That outburst did coincide with the Broncos losing safeties T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart to injury, though. Ward is expected to play next week; Stewart’s status is uncertain.

Special Teams:

I haven’t been keeping score so far but, if I was, I would say the Panthers have a huge edge in offense and the defenses are pretty much tied. At least the third and least respected aspect of the game – special teams – favors the Broncos.

Brandon McManus has been the better kicker, making 88-percent of his attempts. He was three-percent better than Carolina’s Graham Gano on field goals, and two-percent better on extra points.

Of course, Gano’s numbers could be better, but he has had five kicks blocked this season. The Broncos’ special teams have blocked two kicks this season and haven’t allowed any of McManus’ attempts to be swatted away.

It gets worse for the Panthers, who were last in the league in kick returns and fifth-worst in kickoff coverage (including surrendering two return TDs). But it’s unclear how much of an impact the return game will have on the Super Bowl since both these teams register a touchback on over 60-percent of their kicks.

Trends:

Lately, the underdog has been great betting in the Super Bowl. Excluding last year’s game which was a pick em’, the dog has gone 12-5-2 against the spread in the last 19 games. The Panthers went 11-5 against the spread this season as a favorite, but only 4-5 ATS when favored by five points or more. The Broncos are a perfect 5-0 against the spread as an underdog.

Final Verdict:

I was originally a believer that this Panthers team would steamroll any team they met in the Super Bowl. But as that line has continued to move up, the more hesitant I’ve become. There is always the threat of a bad Manning game on the big stage, but I think the near 40-year-old is wise enough to know this game is not about him. Like Elway years ago, Manning just needs to be smart with the football and let the Bronco D keep the team in the game.

As long as Manning sticks to that script, then there’s no reason Denver can’t do a remake of Super Bowl XXXII. Let the line keep creeping up this week, but eventually you need to grab the Broncos with all these points.

Pick: DENVER (+6).

 

(Photo Credits. Top graphic: Charlie Lyons-Pardue (Originally uploaded to Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/]; Wade Phillips: Karen (Originally uploaded to Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.0/]; Greg Olsen: U.S. Army National Guard Photo by Sgt. Leticia Samuels, North Carolina National Guard Public Affairs/Released North Carolina National Guard derivative: Diddykong1130 (131118-Z-ZK506-070) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons; Von Miller: Jeffrey Beall (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.)

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