2023 NFL Strength of Schedule for Every Team Calculated Properly

• 2023 NFL strength of schedule rankings for every team from toughest to easiest
• Use SBD’s proprietary method for calculating NFL Strength of Schedule
• The Patriots have the toughest NFL schedule, while the Saints have the easiest

For too long we have wasted our time using team’s record from the previous season to calculate NFL strength of schedule rankings for the upcoming season. Stop this! There are far too many flaws involved in this method.

We should be using something much more forward-looking instead. A handful of years ago, I came up with the idea to use the win totals put out by sportsbooks each season to determine how difficult each team’s schedule was going to be.

The league released its full 2023 NFL schedule on Thursday, May 11, but NFL win totals opened back in late March. Here’s the NFL SOS for every team using this much more accurate method, as well as how this method has performed in terms of predicting future outcomes in previous seasons.

Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 is the easiest 2023 schedule.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Using 2023 NFL win totals, I have come up with my own NFL Strength of Schedule by adding the projected wins (from sportsbooks) of each team’s 17 opponents this season.

The range in my NFL Strength of Schedule rankings is from 129.9, on the easy end, to 156, on the tough end. The median sum of 2022 opponents’ win totals is 145.6, while the average (mode) is 145.4. The easiest schedule this year is notably easier than last season, where the low end was still 137.

It is the New England Patriots who enter the 2023 NFL season with the most difficult schedule ahead and the New Orleans Saints with the easiest path.

Who Has the Toughest 2023 NFL Schedule?

• New England Patriots

The AFC East was a tough division last year, before the New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers under center. The division is going to be brutally tough this year, and is a big reason why the New England Patriots possess the league’s toughest schedule in 2023.

Six of New England’s games will be played against divisional foes in the Bills (win total of 10.5), Dolphins (9.5), and Jets (9.5). But even when the Pats get out of the AFC East, it doesn’t get a lot easier. They take on the AFC West, which projects to be tough games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and (maybe) Broncos, and NFC East, which will bring tough games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and (maybe) Giants.

New England Patriots’ 2023 Schedule

New England’s average opponent in 2023 is a 9.2-win team and they have to deal with four games against a double-digit-win opponent.

The Patriots have to face 2.7 more wins than the team with the second-toughest schedule, the Bills and Chiefs. It should be no surprise that we see another AFC East team on the list of toughest schedules after what you read above. Even the Dolphins (fifth-toughest) and Jets (eighth-toughest) find themselves among the top ten most difficult schedules in 2023.

Who Has the Easiest 2023 NFL Schedule?

• New Orleans Saints

The easiest schedule in the 2023 NFL season belongs to the New Orleans Saints. Just like above with the Pats, their division plays a big role in this. The NFC South was awful last year and New Orleans is the only team who projects to be much better than they were last season. The Saints added Derek Carr at QB, should get Michael Thomas back, and still have a very good offensive line and defense.

The same optimism can’t be shared about the rest of the division. Atlanta (win total of 8.3) has some pretty good talent on both sides of the ball but will trot Desmond Ridder, a second-year QB who no one is really sure of right now, out under center. Carolina (7.5) is likely relying on a rookie quarterback this season and also gave away their best receiver to acquire that rookie QB. Tampa Bay (6.5) is suffering through the post-Tom Brady era right now and don’t have the best offensive line to protect either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.

New Orleans Saints’ 2023 Schedule

Looking outside of the NFC South, the Saints also get an Aaron Rodgers-less NFC North and a pretty weak AFC South. New Orleans’ average opponent is just a 7.6-win team and they do not face a single opponent whose win total is greater than 9.5.

The second-easiest schedule in the league belongs to the Falcons – again, should be no surprise to see another NFC South team with an easy strength of schedule – but they face another 0.9 wins this season. These two teams have it far easier than the rest, with the third-easiest schedule belonging to the Colts who face 138.4 wins this season, compared to New Orleans’ 129.9.

Other 2023 NFL SOS Notes

• The toughest first-half schedule belongs to the New York Jets, who face an average 9.6-win team from Weeks 1-9. The second-toughest first-half belongs to the Patriots, who face a 9.2-win team on average.
• The easiest first-half schedule is the Saints’ first nine games, where they only play an average 7.4-win team. The second-easiest belongs to the Falcons.
• While the Jets’ first-half schedule is the toughest in the league, they do see the biggest drop in second-half opponent. New York faces a 9.6-win team on average in the first half of the season, but just an 8.3-win team on average in the second half. This is a difference of 1.31 wins per opponent. The next biggest drop-off is the Titans, whose second-half opponents are 1.25 wins worse than their first-half opponents.
• The Ravens see the biggest increase in difficulty from their first to second-half opponents. Baltimore has to deal with an 8-win team on average from Weeks 1-9, but then get a 9.4-win team on average in the second half. This is a difference of 1.4 wins per opponent. The next worst is the Eagles, whose second-half opponents are 1.3 wins better than their first-half opponents.
• The Titans and Patriots are tied for the toughest first four games, each facing a total of 39.5 projected wins in their opponents over that stretch. The easiest first four games belongs to the 49ers, who only face 28.5 projected wins in those games.
• The Patriots play the toughest final four games of the season, having to deal with 40 projected wins, or an average 10-win team, over the final four weeks of the 2023 season. The easiest final four games also belongs to the 49ers, who only face 27.5 projected wins in their final four opponents.

Why Our NFL Strength of Schedule Method Is More Accurate

For starters, free agency, the NFL Draft, and other player/coach movement are all capable of dramatically changing a team in just one offseason – see the 2017 Los Angeles Rams under Sean McVay or the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Tom Brady.

Second, injuries/suspensions to star players, namely quarterbacks, can result in a good team suffering through a bad season – see the 2017 Green Bay Packers without Aaron Rodgers. If you’re going to tell me the Packers are a 7-9 team with Rodgers under center, I’m here to call you crazy.

Sure, sportsbooks can be influenced by where the money is going, and scheduling is sort of worked into their lines, but their win totals still at least reflect the current team, not the past one.

The 2018 Buffalo Bills are a great example of why using projected win totals to calculate strength of schedule is much more appropriate than last year’s record. If we were judging Buffalo by 2017 alone, they would have been counted as a very respectable 9-7 team.

However, the Bills traded QB Tyrod Taylor in the offseason, and entered 2018 with AJ McCarron and Josh Allen under center. Buffalo should not have been viewed as a nine-win team. Their 6.5 projected wins were a much closer projection to what they actually were: a 6-win team.

Another example is the 2018 Houston Texans. Only getting six starts out of Deshaun Watson before he tore his ACL, and missing JJ Watt (among others) for 11 games resulted in the 2017 Texans posting an awful 4-12 record.

But with both of those players back in 2018, they posted an 11-5 record. Regarding them as a 9.5-win team like sportsbooks suggested was much closer to the team they were.

How Can Strength of Schedule Help You as a Bettor?

No offseason NFL bets should be made before at least considering strength of schedule.

Whether you’re betting Super Bowl futures, NFL win totals, player awards, or even a prop as obscure as the first head coach to be fired, strength of schedule is going to play a major role.

An easy regular season schedule is likely to lead to a higher-seed come playoff time. And with 32 of 64 no. 1 seeds advancing to the Super Bowl since 1990, it’s clear that home field advantage is significant in the postseason.

Past NFL MVP Winners

When it comes to player awards, the average number of regular season wins for the last ten NFL MVPs is 13.

So once you have narrowed down your list of potentials for the MVP, it would be wise to consult which of your candidates face easy/difficult schedules, since they’ll likely need to win at least 12 games to take home the honor. Keep this in mind as you scan the NFL MVP odds and favorites for the upcoming season.

NFL Strength of Schedule FAQ

Archived NFL Strength of Schedule: 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018