Historical NFL Strength of Schedule from Past Seasons

• Look back at previous seasons to see historical NFL strength of schedule rankings
• See how accurate my NFL SOS calculation has been in the past
• Looking for current NFL strength of schedule rankings?

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I created my own method for calculating NFL strength of schedule back in 2018. I have run this SOS model every year since and have documented each season, while providing a brief overview of how accurate it was on both extremes (very easy schedule vs very tough schedule). You can look back to each season since 2018 to see what the SOS looked like and how it performed that year below.

2025 Season | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018

Note: in each year #1 is the most difficult, while #32 is the easiest schedule.

2025 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

The range in my 2025 NFL Strength of Schedule rankings was from 131.5, on the easy end (up from 128.5 the previous year), to 155.9 on the tough end (which is up a little from 154.5 the previous year). The median sum of 2025 opponents’ win totals was 145.9, while the average (mode) was 145.2.

The team with the toughest 2025 NFL schedule was the New York Giants, while the team with the easiest 2025 NFL schedule was the San Francisco 49ers.

Looking to the teams with the toughest schedules, each of the top three, and seven of the top ten, went under their respective 2025 regular season win over/under

Looking to the teams with the easiest schedules, each of the top five went over their respective 2025 win total.

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2024 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

The range in my NFL Strength of Schedule rankings is from 128.5, on the easy end, to 154.5, on the tough end. The median sum of 2024 opponents’ win totals is 144.75, while the average (mode) is 144. The easiest schedule this year is slightly easier than last year’s easiest, while the toughest is not as bad as what we saw last year.

The team with the toughest 2024 NFL schedule is the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the team with the easiest 2024 NFL schedule is the Atlanta Falcons.

I updated the SOS following Week 9, the middle of the 2024-25 NFL season, to look at the NFL strength of schedule for the remaining nine games (second half of the season). If you scroll further down, you can also see another look at the SOS for the second half of the season.

Looking to the three teams with the toughest schedules in 2024, two of them ended up going under their respective win total. The Steelers, who had the toughest schedule in the pre-season view, ended up as the lone team to go over. Only one of the three teams with the easiest schedules went over their win total, as both the Falcons and Jets squandered what was believed to be an easy schedule – the Chargers had the second-easiest schedule and went over their win total.

Who Has the Toughest 2024 NFL Schedule?

• Pittsburgh Steelers

The AFC North sent three teams to the playoffs last year, one of which was the AFC’s #1 seed, and their worst team finished 9-8 with Joe Burrow only playing in ten games, and he appeared to be playing injured in at least a couple of those ten. Burrow is expected to be healthy heading into the 2024-25 NFL season. The Browns will also get their starting QB, Deshaun Watson, back this year, and the Ravens are expected to be among the league’s top contenders again this season.

So, things look pretty tough for Pittsburgh in their division.

Six of Pittsburgh’s games will be played against those divisional foes in the Ravens (win total of 11.5), Bengals (10.5), and Browns (8.5). But even when the Steelers get out of the AFC North, it doesn’t get a lot easier. They take on the AFC West, which projects to be tough games against the Chiefs and Chargers, and NFC East, which will bring tough games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and maybe Giants/Commanders.

Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2024-25 Schedule

Three of the Steelers’ first four games of the season will be played on the road, and their final eight games are about as tough as you can imagine. All six of their divisional games come in the final eight weeks, with the two non-divisional games coming against the Eagles and Chiefs. If the Steelers manage to find their way into the playoffs again this season, they will have truly earned it!

Pittsburgh’s average opponent in 2024 is a 9.1-win team and they have to deal with seven games against a double-digit-win opponent.

The Steelers only have to face one more projected opponent win than the team with the second-toughest schedule, the Patriots. New England finds themselves in a very similar situation to Pittsburgh within their division. The third-toughest schedule belongs to another AFC North team: the Cleveland Browns.

Who Has the Easiest 2024 NFL Schedule?

• Atlanta Falcons

The easiest schedule in the 2024 NFL season belongs to the Atlanta Falcons. Just like above with the Steelers, their division plays a big role in this. The NFC South was awful last year and Atlanta is the only team who projects to be much better than they were last season. The Falcons added Kirk Cousins (and Michael Penix Jr) at QB, who is expected to unlock the potentials of Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. Atlanta also fired head coach Arthur Smith and replaced him with defensive-minded Raheem Morris. Zac Robinson will serve as their offensive coordinator this year, coming over from the Rams coaching staff.

The same optimism can’t be shared about the rest of the division. New Orleans (win total of 7.5) was a major disappointment in Derek Carr’s first season with the club, and didn’t really add anything notable coming into this season. Tampa Bay (8) won the division last year with a 9-8 record and will probably be a decent team again this year. Carolina (4.5) is tied for the lowest projected win total in the NFL this season after finishing with a league-worst 2-15 record last year. The Panthers are praying last year’s first-overall pick, Bryce Young, has not shown all he has so far.

Atlanta Falcons’ 2024-25 Schedule

Looking outside of the NFC South, the Falcons also get the NFC East and AFC West, which presents a bit of a mixed bag, as mentioned above with the Steelers. Atlanta’s average opponent is just a 7.6-win team and they only face three opponents with win totals higher than 8.5. They will play six games against teams with win totals of 6.5 or less.

Atlanta will get two of their tougher games out of the way in the first three weeks of the season, as they take on the Eagles in Week 2 and the Chiefs in Week 3. If you wanted to roll the dice on Atlanta losing both of those games, you would likely get a slightly lower line on their win total.

The second-easiest schedule in the league belongs to the Chargers, whose schedule is notably tougher with a 133 combined win total from their opponents.

Other 2024 NFL SOS Notes

• The toughest first-half schedule belongs to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who face an average 9.3-win team during the first nine weeks. Minnesota is a close second, as they also play an average 9.3-win team each of the first nine weeks.
• The easiest first-half schedule is the Chargers and Bears, who both face an average 7.4-win team for the first nine weeks.
• As mentioned above, the Steelers have the toughest schedule in the league this season, and the bulk of it comes in the second half of the year. Pittsburgh’s average opponent gets 1.8 wins tougher in the second half, the biggest increase in difficulty.
• Atlanta has the easiest schedule in the league, and it’s especially easy in the second half. The Falcons’ second-half opponents are an average two wins worse than their first half opponents, which is the biggest decrease in difficulty.
• The Chiefs have the toughest first four games in the NFL, as their first four opponents combine for 40 projected wins, an average of a 10-win team per week. The easiest first four games belongs to the Bengals, who only have to face a combined 27 projected wins, an average of 6.8 per week, through the first four weeks
• The Steelers play the toughest final four weeks of the season, seeing a grueling 44 projected wins from their opponents, or an average of an 11-win team each week. The easiest final four games belongs to the Falcons, who only face a 6-win team on average over the final four.

NFL 2nd Half Strength of Schedule Rankings

There is one flaw in these NFL SOS rankings for the second half of the 2024-25 NFL season: no sportsbook has released a win total for the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott’s timetable for return very much up in the air.

I went ahead and set Dallas’ win total myself, putting it at 6.5. The Cowboys’ win total was 8.5 entering Week 9, and then they lost a coin-flip game to the Falcons. Even without Dak’s injury, I suspect the Cowboys would have reopened at 7.5/8. Without Dak, I see their only winnable game over the next four weeks coming against the Giants, but then it doesn’t get any easier after Dak’s potential return from the IR, if he misses the shortest possible time.

Some quick notes from the table above, as well as comparing the 2nd half SOS update with what we had to start the season:

• The Chicago Bears have the toughest second-half schedule, followed by the Pittsburgh Steelers
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the easiest second-half schedule, followed by the Atlanta Falcons
• The team who played the toughest first-half schedule, based on the update above, was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are also the team whose schedule improves the most in the second half, going from an average 10.67-win team in the first half to an average 6-win team in the second half. (Two games against the Panthers help!)
• The team who played the easiest first half schedule, based on the update, was the Washington Commanders
• The team whose second-half schedule worsens versus what they saw in the first half is the Chicago Bears, who played an average 7.63-win team in the first half, but now have to deal with an average 9.94-win team in the second half
• The team whose second-half schedule is much harder than originally expected (updated SOS versus preseason SOS) is the Chicago Bears. Their average second half opponent was believed to be an 8.61-win team, but now appears to be a 9.94-win team.
• The team whose second-half schedule is much easier than originally expected is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their average second-half opponent was believed to be a 7.5-win team, but it now appears to be just a 6-win team.

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2023 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings Before Kickoff

The range in my NFL Strength of Schedule rankings is from 129.9, on the easy end, to 156, on the tough end. The median sum of 2023 opponents’ win totals is 145.6, while the average (mode) is 145.4. The easiest schedule this year is notably easier than last season, where the low end was still 137.

It is the New England Patriots who enter the 2023 NFL season with the most difficult schedule ahead and the New Orleans Saints with the easiest path.

Notes from after the season ended:

1. If you bet the under on the win totals for the six teams with the toughest schedules, you would have gone 4-2 
2. If you bet the over on the four teams with the easiest schedules, you would have gone 2-2

Who Has the Toughest 2023 NFL Schedule?

• New England Patriots

The AFC East was a tough division last year, before the New York Jets added Aaron Rodgers under center. The division is going to be brutally tough this year, and is a big reason why the New England Patriots possess the league’s toughest schedule in 2023.

Six of New England’s games will be played against divisional foes in the Bills (win total of 10.5), Dolphins (9.5), and Jets (9.5). But even when the Pats get out of the AFC East, it doesn’t get a lot easier. They take on the AFC West, which projects to be tough games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and (maybe) Broncos, and NFC East, which will bring tough games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and (maybe) Giants.

New England Patriots’ 2023 Schedule

New England’s average opponent in 2023 is a 9.2-win team and they have to deal with four games against a double-digit-win opponent.

The Patriots have to face 2.7 more wins than the team with the second-toughest schedule, the Bills and Chiefs. It should be no surprise that we see another AFC East team on the list of toughest schedules after what you read above. Even the Dolphins (fifth-toughest) and Jets (eighth-toughest) find themselves among the top ten most difficult schedules in 2023.

Who Has the Easiest 2023 NFL Schedule?

• New Orleans Saints

The easiest schedule in the 2023 NFL season belongs to the New Orleans Saints. Just like above with the Pats, their division plays a big role in this. The NFC South was awful last year and New Orleans is the only team who projects to be much better than they were last season. The Saints added Derek Carr at QB, should get Michael Thomas back, and still have a very good offensive line and defense.

The same optimism can’t be shared about the rest of the division. Atlanta (win total of 8.3) has some pretty good talent on both sides of the ball but will trot Desmond Ridder, a second-year QB who no one is really sure of right now, out under center. Carolina (7.5) is likely relying on a rookie quarterback this season and also gave away their best receiver to acquire that rookie QB. Tampa Bay (6.5) is suffering through the post-Tom Brady era right now and don’t have the best offensive line to protect either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask.

New Orleans Saints’ 2023 Schedule

Looking outside of the NFC South, the Saints also get an Aaron Rodgers-less NFC North and a pretty weak AFC South. New Orleans’ average opponent is just a 7.6-win team and they do not face a single opponent whose win total is greater than 9.5.

The second-easiest schedule in the league belongs to the Falcons – again, should be no surprise to see another NFC South team with an easy strength of schedule – but they face another 0.9 wins this season. These two teams have it far easier than the rest, with the third-easiest schedule belonging to the Colts who face 138.4 wins this season, compared to New Orleans’ 129.9.

Other 2023 NFL SOS Notes

• The toughest first-half schedule belongs to the New York Jets, who face an average 9.6-win team from Weeks 1-9. The second-toughest first-half belongs to the Patriots, who face a 9.2-win team on average.
• The easiest first-half schedule is the Saints’ first nine games, where they only play an average 7.4-win team. The second-easiest belongs to the Falcons.
• While the Jets’ first-half schedule is the toughest in the league, they do see the biggest drop in second-half opponent. New York faces a 9.6-win team on average in the first half of the season, but just an 8.3-win team on average in the second half. This is a difference of 1.31 wins per opponent. The next biggest drop-off is the Titans, whose second-half opponents are 1.25 wins worse than their first-half opponents.
• The Ravens see the biggest increase in difficulty from their first to second-half opponents. Baltimore has to deal with an 8-win team on average from Weeks 1-9, but then get a 9.4-win team on average in the second half. This is a difference of 1.4 wins per opponent. The next worst is the Eagles, whose second-half opponents are 1.3 wins better than their first-half opponents.
• The Titans and Patriots are tied for the toughest first four games, each facing a total of 39.5 projected wins in their opponents over that stretch. The easiest first four games belongs to the 49ers, who only face 28.5 projected wins in those games.
• The Patriots play the toughest final four games of the season, having to deal with 40 projected wins, or an average 10-win team, over the final four weeks of the 2023 season. The easiest final four games also belongs to the 49ers, who only face 27.5 projected wins in their final four opponents.

Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 is the easiest 2023 schedule.

2023 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings After Week 1

After recalculating NFL strength of schedule following Week 1, it is still the Patriots with the league’s toughest schedule and the Saints with the league’s easiest schedule. However, New England’s schedule does look a little tougher (by 2.5 projected opponent wins) and New Orleans’ looks a touch easier (by 1.4 projected opponent wins).

Here are the teams whose 2023-24 NFL schedules look much easier versus what we thought prior to kickoff:

• Dolphins went from 152 down to 144.5 (difference of  7.5 projected opponent wins)
  • Two games against the Jets look a lot easier without Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Giants look awful, and Kansas City may not be as dominant as expected.
• Raiders went from 152.5 down to 145.5 (7)
• Chiefs went from 153.3 down to 147.5 (5.8)
• Bills went from 153.3 down to 147.5 (5.8)

And then here are the teams whose schedules look notably tougher versus what we thought prior to kickoff:

• Panthers went from 138.9 up to 145.5 (difference of 6.6 projected opponent wins)
  • Detroit, Miami, Dallas, and Green Bay all looked very strong in Week 1 and are all teams Carolina has to play this season.
• Buccaneers went from 145.9 up to 149 (3.1)
• Jaguars went from 143.3 up to 146 (2.7)

Many teams saw their schedules get tougher but the burden was divided up pretty evenly among the group.

Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 is the easiest 2023 schedule.

NFL Strength of Schedule for 2nd Half of Season

Isolating just the second half of the 2023-24 NFL season, the Baltimore Ravens have the toughest schedule over the final nine weeks, while the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest schedule. Baltimore’s average opponent over their next eight games – they are on bye in Week 13 – is a strong ten-win team. Atlanta’s average opponent over their next eight games – they are on bye Week 11 – is just a 6.88-win team.

The Las Vegas Raiders second half schedule gets significantly tougher than their first half schedule. Their average opponent in the first half of the season was just a 7.5-win team, while their average second half opponent is a 9.5-win team. Their opponent’s jump of two wins per game from first to second half is the largest in the league. The Patriots are on the other end of the spectrum, as their average second half opponent is 1.31 wins worse than their average first half opponent.

Based off our most recent update after Week 1 (can be seen below), we were off the most when it comes to the Titans second half schedule. After our Week 1 update, we thought the Titans average second half opponent was just a 7.61-win team, when they’re now appearing to be an 8.94-win team.

Quick note for anyone who cares: no sportsbook currently has a win total for the New York Giants. However, theScore Bet has a prop for exact wins and the Giants see the following odds: +250 for three wins, +200 for four wins, and +300 for five wins. Two and six wins are both given +700 odds. So, I have set their line at 4, which results in the most balanced implied probabilities – 41.1% to go under, 44.7% to go over, and 33.3% to push.

(Yes, this prop carries a lot of juice. The sum of implied probabilities for all outcomes is 119.1%, meaning we have an overround of 19.1%. I am not suggesting you bet this prop, to be very clear. In fact, do not! I am just explaining it to show my work on the NFL strength of schedule rankings.)

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2022 NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Using 2022 NFL win totals, I came up with my own NFL Strength of Schedule by adding the projected wins (from sportsbooks) of each team’s 17 opponents this season.

The range in my NFL Strength of Schedule rankings is from 137, on the easy end, to 156, on the tough end. The median sum of 2022 opponents’ win totals is 144.8, while the average (mode) is 145.3.

The main flaw I ran into this season is sportsbooks not releasing a win total for the Cleveland Browns for quite some time, due to the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson being suspended by the league at the time—he was suspended for 11 games. I used the 2022 Super Bowl odds and NFL divisional odds to find similar teams and then use their win totals to set one for the Browns.

If you bet the …

• 3 teams with the easiest schedules to go over on their respective win totals, you would have gone 2-1
• 3 teams with the toughest schedules to go under on their respective win totals, you would have gone 1-2

Toughest 2022 NFL Schedule

• Kansas City Chiefs

For a second straight year, it was a team from the AFC West that had the toughest schedule. It was the Raiders last year, but is now the Chiefs in 2022. This is largely due to huge offseason moves made by the other teams in their division, as the Chargers added Khalil Mack and JC Jackson to their defense, the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson, and the Raiders brought in Davante Adams.

Between the Chargers and Broncos, that’s four games Kansas City has on their schedule against believed-to-be 10-win teams, according to NFL win totals. The AFC West also draws the NFC West this season, meaning the Chiefs will see the defending Super Bowl champion LA Rams (10.5 win total), San Francisco 49ers (10), Arizona Cardinals (9), and Seattle Seahawks (6.5). The latter does not have the same sting without Wilson, but the other three will be very tough.

Then add in their games against the other AFC division-winners from last season—AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, and Tennessee Titans, who they would have seen anyways with the AFC West drawing the AFC South this year—and their add-in game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and this is one grueling schedule ahead for Kansas City.

For context on just how tough it is, last year’s most difficult schedule belonged to the Raiders, whose opponents’ combined win totals equaled 153.5. The Chiefs’ equals 156 this year. The year prior, which was a season that only included 16 games instead of 17, only saw 136 projected wins of opponents.

If you want to look at that in terms of winning percentage of Kansas City’s opponents, the Chiefs would be playing opponents who are projected to go 156-133 for a 0.540 projected winning percentage.

The next two toughest 2022 NFL schedules are the Pittsburgh Steelers (154.5) and Los Angeles Rams (153.5).

The Chiefs aren’t the only AFC West team facing a tough schedule, though. The Las Vegas Raiders have the fourth-toughest schedule and the LA Chargers have the ninth-toughest. The Denver Broncos have the easiest schedule among AFC West teams, ranking 14th.

It should also be noted that even with the Chiefs facing the toughest schedule, they still ranked sixth in our NFL Power Rankings.

Easiest 2022 NFL Schedule

• Philadelphia Eagles

The easiest schedule in the 2022 NFL season belongs to the Philadelphia Eagles, whose opponents only combine for 137 projected wins, according to NFL win totals at sportsbooks. This means Philadelphia’s opponents project to post a 0.474 winning percentage this season.

Not only will they benefit from two believed-to-be weak teams in the NFC East—NY Giants, seven projected wins, and Washington Commanders, 7.5 projected wins—but also get some weaker teams in their division’s matchups with the NFC North and AFC South.

They will see the Lions, Bears, Vikings, Texans, and Jaguars, among others, from those divisions, and also benefit from the second-place teams in the NFC South and West not being overly strong—Saints and Cardinals. Their add-in game from the AFC also pits them up against the Steelers, who will be a very different team with Mitchell Trubisky, or more likely Kenny Pickett, under center.

The Eagles are not the only NFC East team benefiting from their division’s matchups, though. The New York Giants have the second-easiest 2022 schedule, while the Washington Commanders have the fifth-easiest. The Dallas Cowboys have the toughest schedule among NFC East teams, but that’s still the tenth-easiest schedule in the NFL.

The team with the easiest schedule who does not reside in the NFC East is the Indianapolis Colts, who face the league’s third-easiest schedule in 2022.

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2021 NFL SOS

My method for calculating NFL Strength of Schedule did not perform very well in the 2021 NFL season. In past years, betting the teams with the toughest schedules to go under their win totals, and the teams with the easiest schedules to go over their win totals, has been a profitable wager.

That was not the case in 2021, as we had some real over and underachievers on each extreme of my NFL SOS.

If you bet the six teams with the easiest SOS in 2021 to go over their win totals, you would have only hit two: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go over 12 wins (-150), and Dallas Cowboys to go over 9.5 wins (+115).

The San Francisco 49ers, who had the easiest schedule based on NFL win totals, as well as the Cleveland Browns, who had the second-easiest schedule, both suffered through injuries to their respective quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield. Both tried to play through their injuries, and neither looked good doing so. Denver, who had the third-easiest schedule, also suffered through mediocre-at-best QB play en route to a disappointing season.

If you bet the six teams with the toughest SOS in 2021 to go under their win totals, you would have hit three: the Houston Texans to go under 4.5 wins (-110), Detroit Lions to go under five wins (-120), and Washington Football Team to go under 8.5 wins (-105).

The Raiders, who had the toughest schedule based on NFL win totals, and Bengals, who had the fourth-toughest schedule, were two of the biggest overachievers in the league. Las Vegas surprised many in making the playoffs, despite a very tough schedule, while the Bengals went all the way to the Super Bowl after only winning four games the previous season.

You can see some further commentary from last season on the teams with the easiest and hardest NFL Strength of Schedules for the 2021 season below.

Toughest 2021 Schedule

It should come as no surprise that a team who has to play the Kansas City Chiefs twice this season is the team with the toughest schedule. The Las Vegas Raiders are in tough in 2021, largely due to the fact that they finished second in the AFC West last season.

As a result, their extra two games against AFC opponents come against teams who finished second in their respective divisions last year, the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. Their extra, 17th opponent this season is the Chicago Bears, who are trending in the right direction after drafting Justin Fields.

The Raiders only play two games against teams with win totals less than seven (Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles), and only four games against teams with average win totals less than 8.2. Las Vegas’ average opponent in 2021 is a nine-win team.

Easiest 2021 Schedule

After an injury-ravaged 2020 season that saw the 49ers struggle to a 6-10 record, only one year after representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, San Francisco will benefit in 2021 by having the easiest schedule in the league.

Kyle Shanahan’s squad actually has a significantly easier schedule than anyone else, as the sum of their opponents win totals only comes out to 138.2, which is 15.3 fewer wins than the Raiders (toughest) and 3.7 fewer wins than the Browns, who have the next easiest schedule.

San Francisco’s six games against other NFC West teams will be tough, but they get a weaker NFC North that includes the Detroit Lions (avg win total of 5.2), a very weak AFC South that includes the Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5) and Houston Texans (3.8), and their three extra games come against the Philadelphia Eagles (6.5), Atlanta Falcons (7.5), and Cincinnati Bengals (6.5). Their average opponent is an 8.1-win team.

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2020 NFL Strength of Schedule

Using average 2020 NFL win totals, we have come up with our own strength of schedule by adding the projected wins of each team’s 16 opponents this season.

Overall, 16 teams went over their win total, 14 went under, and two pushed. Our SOS model performed very well in predicting which teams would go over/under in 2020. Here are some of the high-level notes:

• Looking to the five teams with the most difficult schedules in 2020, four went under and one pushed – betting $100 on each would have won you $362.77
• Looking to the five teams with the easiest schedules in 2020, four went over and one went under – betting $100 on each would have won you $333.30
• The under was 9-6-1 on teams in the top half of the SOS table, or the 16 most difficult schedules
• The over was 10-5-1 on teams in the bottom half of the SOS table, or the 16 easiest schedules

We also provided an update to these numbers following Week 1. You can see those below.

Updated NFL SOS After Week 1

With sportsbooks releasing updated win totals after Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season, we’ve updated the SOS for the remaining 15 games. The Falcons still have it the toughest the rest of the way, but the Browns are back to having the easiest schedule – they had the easiest when win totals first opened as well.

The mean SOS based on win totals for the final 15 games is 120

Some teams who experienced significant change in their strength of schedule after Week 1 include:

• New Orleans Saints: went from ninth-toughest to 27th-toughest
• Arizona Cardinals: went from 15th-toughest to 28th-toughest
• Indianapolis Colts: went from the easiest schedule to 15th-easiest
• Tennessee Titans: went from second-easiest to 14th-easiest
• Los Angeles Rams: went from seventh-toughest to 17th-toughest
• Philadelphia Eagles: went from the 11th-toughest to the second-toughest
• Pittsburgh Steelers: went from 24th-toughest to 16th-toughest

Of course, some of the movement in ranking above is a result of their Week 1 opponent being out of the way, and that game being particularly easy/tough.

You can see what the SOS numbers were prior to kickoff below.

2020 NFL SOS Based on Win Totals

*Win totals were updated on May 7

The average projected wins of 2020 opponents is 129.3, while the variance is 10.2.

Toughest 2020 Schedule

For the second straight season, the Texans appeared to face the most difficult schedule in the league. It was lighter than last year, when their opponents combined for 138.5 wins, but they lost that title after a crazy free agency period that saw many big-name players on the move.

The Giants then faced the toughest schedule in the league after free agency. Their opponents picked up five extra wins after free agency. The Eagles and Rams also saw their schedules get significantly tougher after free agency, as their respective opponents added four wins through free agency.

However, after the NFL released the 2020 schedule, the Falcons now face the toughest schedule in the league.

Easiest 2020 Schedule

When win totals opened, the Browns were expecting to face the lightest schedule in the league, with just 126.5 combined wins for their opponents. But their foes picked up some extra wins after free agency, increasing their difficulty by a few games.

The Chargers took over the title of having the easiest schedule after free agency, as their opponents’ projected wins fell from 128 to 127.

After the NFL Draft and release of the 2020 schedule, the Colts now have, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their opponents are only projected to win 122.3 games combined, 2.5 games less than the Titans, who have the second-easiest.

1st Half SOS

*Again, number 1 denotes the toughest schedule, while 32 is the easiest.

The Raiders possess the toughest first eight games of the season, while the Jaguars have it very easy. The average here is 64.6 with a variance of 11.4.

As a bettor, you should be using this information to help determine whether the price you’re getting on a futures bet for the latest NFL odds is the best value you’ll find.

For example, if you wanted to bet the Jaguars to miss the playoffs this season, it’s important to know they could win a few games out of the gate, potentially resulting in their odds to make the playoffs improving, and their odds to miss worsening. So you’d want to consider waiting to make this bet to hold out for a better price.

The same goes for betting division winners. You may love the Texans to win the AFC South, but could get a better price on the bet if you hold out until they get through their first four games – Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and Vikings. It’s likely they lose a couple of those, if not more, meaning you could get a better price later.

The opposite is true for a team like the Cowboys, who have the sixth-easiest first half of the season. If you like them to win the NFC East, you probably want to bet them now before their odds shorten.

2nd Half SOS

*Again, number 1 denotes the toughest schedule, while 32 is the easiest.

The Falcons have a grueling final eight games of the season, while the Steelers have it the easiest down the stretch. The average here is 64.7 with a variance of 11.2.

Everything we discussed above should also consider each team’s strength of schedule over the second half of the season. For example, if you want to bet the Steelers to make the playoffs this season, it’s important to note they start the season with the fifth-toughest first eight games, but have the easiest second half in the league.

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2019 NFL SOS Based on Win Totals

All calculations were based off opening win totals from April, 2019.

The 2019 NFL season was a weird one. Many impactful players, specifically quarterbacks, saw their seasons cut short, and the absences played major roles in the outcome of the season.

Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee’s respective schedules got a lot easier once Andrew Luck announced his retirement in late-August, leaving Jacoby Brissett as the Colts’ starting QB in 2019.

Injuries – or illnesses in the Jets’ case – hurt a lot of the teams with easier schedules:

• the Jets came up one win shy of hitting the over on their win total, and they may have gotten there if Sam Darnold didn’t miss three games with mono;
• the Eagles needed 11 wins to hit their over, coming up two games short. But had their receiving corps stayed healthy, it’s hard to say they don’t flip those losses to the Lions and Dolphins into wins;
• the Steelers also only got two games from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger before an elbow injury forced them to turn their offense over to Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges.

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2018 NFL Strength of Scheduled Based on Projected Win Totals

Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 denotes the easiest 2018 schedule.

Using 2018 projected win totals, we came up with our own strength of schedule by adding the projected wins of each team’s 16 opponents this season.

Results

The Texans had it the easiest based on either SOS method, and they easily cleared their own 2018 win total of 8.5. The same goes for the Chargers, whose win total was set at 9.5. New England pushed on their’s.

The three teams with the most difficult schedules based on our method – Arizona, New York (Giants), and Tampa Bay – all went under their own projected win totals.