College Football Public Betting and Money Percentages – Consensus Picks for Week 7
With over 50 games to wager on for ever week of College Football, bettors can use any edge they can. By looking at the splits of money and ticket percentages on the week’s biggest games, you can get a sense of where the public is betting each week. Whether you decide to back the public or fade them is your choice, and we’ll be providing the trends on each week’s AP Top 25 ranked and notable games with stats to know before placing your bets.
College Football Betting Trends for Week 7
Week 7 Ranked Game Splits
Bet and money percentages as of October 14th at DraftKings
Ranked Game Week 7 College Football Betting Trends and Notes
- To open the week of ranked games #24 San Diego State is receiving a whopping 97% of the handle moneyline, and 82% of the handle to cover 9.5 at San Jose State. SDSU is 4-1 ATS this season, and covered their last road game – an outright win at Arizona as 1.5-point underdogs.
- In arguably the biggest game of the week, undefeated (!!) Kentucky travels to Stanford Stadium to face Georgia and are receiving both 78% of the handle and 78% of the tickets to cover a massive 23-point spread. Under Mark Stoops, Kentucky is just 15-15 ATS as a road underdog, but they have covered two in a row against Georgia as double-digit underdogs in the prior two seasons
- After opening as a 3-point favorite at Indiana, #10 Michigan State was quickly bet up to 4.5-point favorites — where they currently sit holding 89% of the bets and 93% of the handle. Under Mel Tucker the Spartans are 2-2-1 ATS as a favorite, but are 1-0 as a road favorite after defeating Rutgers last week.
- Despite only 6% of the bets, 25% of the handle is on Mississippi State to cover the 17 points against #5 Alabama in Starkville on Saturday night, signaling sharp action. Since Nick Saban took over at Alabama in 2007, his Crimson Tide teams are only 6-12 ATS following a loss.
- Oklahoma is dealing with a QB controversy as Caleb Williams appears to have overtaken Spencer Rattler, which is likely part of the reason TCU is receiving 49% of the handle to cover 13.5 points on just 29% of the bets. Oklahoma has covered five of the last six games against TCU – but the Horned Frogs did cover the last time the game was a double-digit spread, losing just 28-24 as 18.5-point underdogs in 2019
- Can Texas A&M avoid a letdown spot after a monstrous win over Alabama? They are receiving over 92% of the handle to cover 8.5-points in a noon start at Missouri, who is an abysmal 0-6 ATS this season. Although Jimbo Fisher’s Aggie teams are 7-0 as a road favorite, the Tigers have covered four of the last five games vs A&M
- Auburn is receiving 55% of the handle to win outright as a +170 underdog, but tread lightly – as the Tigers are just 3-8 as an underdog straight up since Bo Nix took the reins at QB in 2019
Week 7 Unranked Game Splits
Week 7 College Football Betting Trends and Notes
- Navy vs Memphis on Thursday night has a perfectly even 50-50 split on the handle, with the Tigers listed as 10.5-point favorites. Memphis is only 1-3 as a favorite ATS this season, while the Midshipmen are 27-17 under Ken Niumatalolo as a road underdog – good for a 61.4% cover percentage
- Sharps like Syracuse to cover the 13.5-points vs Clemson on Friday night, as the Orange are receiving over 60% of the handle on just 42% of the tickets. Clemson has yet to cover a spread this season, sitting at 0-5.
- The most lopsided split of the unranked games comes in Sun Belt action, as 95% of the handle resides on Troy -7.5 at Texas State. The Trojans are only 2-4 ATS this season, while Texas State is 3-2 against the number including a 2-0 mark as a home underdog.
- Army is only receiving 36% of the handle against a Wisconsin team that has woefully underperformed this season – and Jeff Monken is 22-19 as an underdog since taking over the Black Knights in 2014
What are Consensus Picks and College Football Betting Trends?
Every bet placed on a college football game is tracked and entered in to a system at your sportsbook of choice. Using all those transactions, bettors, analysts and fans alike can track trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any game across the spread, moneyline or over/under total markets.
With that data, you can see the public consensus (as well as where the sharp money is) for every game before placing your bet.
How Bet and Money Percentages Differ
Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).
Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards.
Noticing Sharp Action While Betting College Football
As broken down above, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.
For example, if Alabama has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Alabama are quite small – or the bets being placed on Ole Miss are quite large.
A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.