College Football Public Betting and Money Percentages – Consensus Picks for National Championship Game
Bowl season is upon us, with over 40 games across the Holiday season, beginning December 17th. By looking at the splits of money and ticket percentages on the week’s biggest games, you can get a sense of where the public is betting each week. Whether you decide to back the public or fade them is your choice, and we’ll be providing the trends for each bowl game and the money splits on each at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are the bet and money percentages for the CFP National Championship game on Monday, January 10th:
College Football National Championship Game Betting Splits
All odds and data from DraftKings on January 10th
College Football Betting Trends
- Now updated with the splits on Monday morning at DraftKings, the public remains heavily concentrated on Alabama +3 as well as heavy 82% of the handle on the moneyline at +120
- For the National Championship game, the public aren’t going back to the well with the Bulldogs and are all over the Crimson Tide getting 3 points, with 71% of the handle and bets
- During the BCS/CFP era, in the six instances that the National Championship has been a rematch of a game played during the regular season, the team that lost has won and covered the spread to win the national championship
- Since lines opened on January 1st, Alabama has remained the public side – and is still a heavy public underdog with 70% of the money and bets on the Crimson Tide getting a FG
What are Consensus Picks and College Football Betting Trends?
Every bet placed on a college football game is tracked and entered in to a system at your sportsbook of choice. Using all those transactions, bettors, analysts and fans alike can track trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any game across the spread, moneyline or over/under total markets.
With that data, you can see the public consensus (as well as where the sharp money is) for every game before placing your bet.
How Bet and Money Percentages Differ
Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).
Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards.
Noticing Sharp Action While Betting College Football
As broken down above, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.
For example, if Alabama has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Alabama are quite small – or the bets being placed on Ole Miss are quite large.
A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.