NBA Public Betting Trends
From October through June, bettors and fans alike will have NBA basketball on their televisions every evening. With so many games available to bet on – how should you pick where to place your wagers?
Looking at the money and bet percentage splits, of course. We’ll provide you with the data directly from sportsbooks here ahead of games each night during the season so you can see where both the public money and percentage of tickets are concentrated for each game.
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Matchup | spread | $$ | Money % | Bet % | spread | Money % | Bet % | moneyline | Money % | Bet % | total | Money % | Bet % |
05/29/2023 @ 8:30 EDT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami MIA @ | +7.5 | 73% | 81% | +7.5 | 73% | 81% | +245 | 70% | 28% | o204 | 96% | 94% |
Boston BOS | -7 | 27% | 19% | -7 | 27% | 19% | -275 | 30% | 72% | u204.5 | 4% | 6% |
05/29/2023 @ 8:30 EDT | ||||||||||||
NBA Public Betting Splits for Monday, May 29
The public-betting splits for Monday’s Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics shows the following trends:
- The public can’t seem to resist siding with history (no team has ever comeback from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series), putting 87% of moneyline handle on the Heat to win as +245 underdogs.
- The Heat are also getting the vast majority of ATS handle (82% as 7.5-point favorites).
Public’s NBA Betting Record
| Date | Public ATS Record |
|---|---|
| Playoff (Round 3) | 5-5 |
| Playoff (Round 2) | 8-17 |
| Playoff (Round 1) | 25-18 |
| Playoff Total | 35-38 |
| Apr. Total | 40-22 |
| Mar. Total | 96-127-6 |
| Feb. Total | 80-77-6 |
| Jan. Total | 109-103-8 |
| Dec. Total | 101-113-5 |
| Nov. Total | 103-104-5 |
| Oct. Total | 53-38-2 |
| Regular-Season Total | 581-591-34 |
- April: The public finished strong in the first nine days of April, going 39-20 ATS, but still finished the regular season nine games under .500.
- March: March was a horrendous month for the public betting the spread in the NBA. The public finished the month just 96-127-6, dropping its total for the year 19 games under .500.
- February: The public went a decent 80-77-6 ATS in the month of February, which included the All-Star break. Their 51.2 win percentage was not enough to be profitable with standard -110 juice, however.
- January: The public had a bit of a comeback month in January, finishing six games above .500 at 109-103-8. But that’s still only a 51.4 win percentage, which is a profitable percentage for sportsbooks when you factor in the juice. 70
- December: December was the public’s worst month of the season to date, going 12 games under .500 (101-113-5). They are now winning at just 50.2% for the season, which is good enough for sportsbooks to make a profit.
- November: The public came back to earth in November, going one game under .500 ATS (103-104-1), but is still hitting at a 57.2% clip for the year.
- October: The public got off to a hot start in October, going 53-38-2 ATS, a 58.2 win percentage that would have had sportsbooks in the red.
What Are NBA Betting Trends and How Do I Use Them?
Every bet placed on NBA games is tracked and entered in to a system at your sportsbook of choice. Using all those transactions, bettors, analysts and fans alike can track trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any game across the spread, moneyline or over/under total markets.
With that data, you can see the public consensus (as well as where the sharp money is) for every game before placing your bet.
What’s the Difference Between Bet and Money Percentages?
Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).
Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards.
Noticing Sharp Action While Betting on the NBA
As broken down above, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll notice the sharp action if the figures aren’t similar.
For example, if the Lakers have 86% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 47% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on the Lakers are quite small – or the bets being placed on the opponent are quite large.
A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.