NFL Public Betting Trends

Betting splits above are updated hourly; the data presented is an average of the public bets and public money from multiple North American and global sportsbooks.

Here’s what we’re seeing from the money bet on the 2023 Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles:

• The public is currently siding with the Chiefs as 1.5-point underdogs in Super Bowl 57. Kansas City is seeing 75% of the money bet against the spread as of Sunday afternoon, which has been steadily climbing all week.
• Moneyline bettors are also favoring the Chiefs, as 64% of the money bet on who will win the Super Bowl is on Kansas City. This is down from 83% earlier in the week, though.
• The total has been bet up from 49.5 to 51.5 over the past two weeks. But now with the total two points higher than opening, the public is on the under, putting 68% of game-total handle on under 51.5 points.

Be sure to check in with the latest Super Bowl odds before making a bet as well.

Public’s NFL Betting Record

The public nailed their first pick of the 2022 NFL season, as they backed the Bills to cover against the Rams. However, it has been downhill since then for the public, as they did not enjoy a winning week until Week 8.

You are only seeing 15 games in the public’s record for Week 4 because they were split on Tennessee vs Indianapolis.

Here are some quick stats looking back to the public’s 2021-22 record against the spread:

• Went 5-11 against the spread in Week 1
• Worst week was Week 1 (5-11 ATS)
• First winning week against the spread didn’t come until Week 4 (10-6)
• Best week was Week 14 (12-2 ATS)

If you want to see who the public was backing each week of the 2022 NFL season, I have left their picks below.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 18

NFL Betting Trends for Week 17

NFL Betting Trends for Week 16

NFL Betting Trends for Week 15

NFL Betting Trends for Week 14

NFL Betting Trends for Week 13

NFL Betting Trends for Week 12

NFL Betting Trends for Week 11

NFL Betting Trends for Week 10

NFL Betting Trends for Week 9

NFL Betting Trends for Week 8

NFL Betting Trends for Week 7

NFL Betting Trends for Week 6

NFL Betting Trends for Week 5

NFL Betting Trends for Week 4

NFL Betting Trends for Week 3

NFL Betting Trends for Week 2

NFL Betting Trends for Week 1

What Are NFL Betting Trends?

Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total. To get the biggest bonuses, be sure to check out the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code prior to kick-off.

What are Money Percentages?

You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.

The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.

The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.

What Are Bet Percentages?

Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.

To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.

This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.

How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?

As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.

For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.

A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.

This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.

NFL Public Betting Trends FAQ

Is it better to bet against the public in NFL?

The answer changes from season to season. In 2021, betting against the public resulted in a winning record (140-137-4) but because of the juice (usually -110) it was not profitable. With a standard -110 vig, bettors need to win 52.4% of their wagers to make a profit. Last year, betting against the public only resulted in a 50.5% win rate.

What percentage of NFL favorites cover the spread?

Over the past ten seasons, favorites have only covered 48.2% of the time.

What is the biggest trend in NFL betting?

Looking for something to follow blindly? SBD's NFL score predictor is 51-36-3 ATS all-time and is up 23.38 units on upset picks, i.e. when it predicts the betting underdog will win straight-up. To see its projections, go to SBD's NFL odds page, find the matchup you're interested in, and click FULL GAME STATS. The ensuing page will display the predicted score.