NFL Public Betting Trends – Latest Bet & Money Percentages for Week 1 of 2022 Season
Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends – bet percentages and money percentages – is vital to making intelligent sports wagers. This is the place you’ll find these trends each week for the 2022-23 NFL season. We will also be tracking how the public’s picks do all season—you can see how they fared last year against the spread below.
NFL Betting Trends for Week 1
Trends above as of June 15, 2022
Here’s what we’re seeing from the very early money bet on Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season:
- The public is not split on many games thus far, as five of 16 have more than 90% of the public ATS money on one side and three more have at least 80% of the money on one side
- The teams the public loves in Week 1 include: the Saints -4 (at Falcons), Broncos -4 (at Seahawks), Giants +6.5 (at Titans), Browns -4 (at Panthers), and Ravens -4.5 (at Jets); all of these teams are seeing at least 94% of the money bet against the spread
Public’s NFL Betting Record
|Week||Public’s Record Against the Spread|
|2021-22 Regular Season||133-131-4|
The public got off to a rough start last season, going 5-11 against the spread in Week 1. This just so happened to be their worst week of the season against the spread. It took until Week 4 for the public to put together a profitable week against the spread, when they went 10-6.
The best week the public had came in Week 14, where they put forth a very impressive 12-2 ATS record. (A lot of favorites covered this week.)
The public kicked off the playoffs the right way, going 5-1 ATS in Wild Card Weekend, but struggled the rest of the way as they finished with a 7-6 record in the postseason. They did cover the spread in the Super Bowl, though. Overall, the public went 140-137-4 against the spread in the 2021-22 NFL season.
What Are NFL Betting Trends?
Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total. To get the biggest bonuses, be sure to check out the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code prior to kick-off.
What are Money Percentages?
You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.
What Are Bet Percentages?
Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.
How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?
As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.
For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.
A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.
NFL Public Betting Trends FAQ
Is it better to bet against the public in NFL?
The answer changes from season to season. In 2021, betting against the public resulted in a winning record (140-137-4) but because of the juice (usually -110) it was not profitable. With a standard -110 vig, bettors need to win 52.4% of their wagers to make a profit. Last year, betting against the public only resulted in a 50.5% win rate.
What percentage of NFL favorites cover the spread?
Over the past ten seasons, favorites have only covered 48.2% of the time.
What is the biggest trend in NFL betting?
Looking for something to follow blindly? SBD's NFL score predictor is 51-36-3 ATS all-time and is up 23.38 units on upset picks, i.e. when it predicts the betting underdog will win straight-up. To see its projections, go to SBD's NFL odds page, find the matchup you're interested in, and click FULL GAME STATS. The ensuing page will display the predicted score.