NFL Public Betting Trends – Latest Bet & Money Percentages for Week 12 of 2022 Season
Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends – bet percentages and money percentages – is vital to making intelligent sports wagers. This is the place you’ll find these trends each week for the 2022-23 NFL season. We will also be tracking how the public’s picks do all season—you can see how they fared last year against the spread below.
NFL Betting Trends for Week 12
Betting splits above as of November 27 at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re not betting at DraftKings yet, be sure to check out the best DraftKings promo code before signing up.
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Here’s what we’re seeing from the money bet on Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season:
- The public’s favorite bet as of Sunday morning is over 43.0 in Bengals vs Titans. So far, 83% of the money wagered on the CIN vs TEN total is on the game going over.
- There are only two teams seeing at least 70% of the ATS money: the Ravens -3.5 (at Jaguars) and Broncos -1 (at Panthers).
- The public’s favorite underdog on Sunday is the Bears, who are getting 53% of moneyline handle as +255 road underdogs at the Jets.
Public’s NFL Betting Record
|Week||Public’s Record Against the Spread|
|2021-22 Regular Season||133-131-4|
The public nailed their first pick of the 2022 NFL season, as they backed the Bills to cover against the Rams. However, it has been downhill since then for the public, as they did not enjoy a winning week until Week 8.
You are only seeing 15 games in the public’s record for Week 4 because they were split on Tennessee vs Indianapolis.
Here are some quick stats looking back to the public’s 2021-22 record against the spread:
- Went 5-11 against the spread in Week 1
- Worst week was Week 1 (5-11 ATS)
- First winning week against the spread didn’t come until Week 4 (10-6)
- Best week was Week 14 (12-2 ATS)
If you want to see who the public was backing each week of the 2022 NFL season, I have left their picks below.
NFL Betting Trends for Week 11
NFL Betting Trends for Week 10
NFL Betting Trends for Week 9
NFL Betting Trends for Week 8
NFL Betting Trends for Week 7
NFL Betting Trends for Week 6
NFL Betting Trends for Week 5
NFL Betting Trends for Week 4
NFL Betting Trends for Week 3
NFL Betting Trends for Week 2
NFL Betting Trends for Week 1
What Are NFL Betting Trends?
Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total. To get the biggest bonuses, be sure to check out the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code prior to kick-off.
What are Money Percentages?
You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.
The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.
The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.
What Are Bet Percentages?
Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.
To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.
This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.
How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?
As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.
For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.
A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.
This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.
NFL Public Betting Trends FAQ
Is it better to bet against the public in NFL?
The answer changes from season to season. In 2021, betting against the public resulted in a winning record (140-137-4) but because of the juice (usually -110) it was not profitable. With a standard -110 vig, bettors need to win 52.4% of their wagers to make a profit. Last year, betting against the public only resulted in a 50.5% win rate.
What percentage of NFL favorites cover the spread?
Over the past ten seasons, favorites have only covered 48.2% of the time.
What is the biggest trend in NFL betting?
Looking for something to follow blindly? SBD's NFL score predictor is 51-36-3 ATS all-time and is up 23.38 units on upset picks, i.e. when it predicts the betting underdog will win straight-up. To see its projections, go to SBD's NFL odds page, find the matchup you're interested in, and click FULL GAME STATS. The ensuing page will display the predicted score.