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Whether you want to tail or fade the public, knowing the public betting trends – bet percentages and money percentages – is vital to making intelligent sports wagers. This is the place you’ll find these trends each week for the 2021 NFL season. We will also be tracking how the public’s picks do all season.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 12

Week 12 NFL Betting Trends

All trends as of Friday, November 26

Here’s what we’re seeing with the early money in Week 12:

  • Early money has heavily favored the Chargers (-3) over the Broncos in Week 12, as 86% of the money bet against the spread has been on LA thus far, the most lopsided ATS handle. The Cowboys are a very close second, as Dallas has seen 85% of the ATS money in their game against the Raiders on Thanksgiving
    • More money has come in on the Broncos as the week has progressed, but 72% of the ATS handle is still on the Chargers. The Eagles (-3.5) has become the public’s new favorite bet for Week 12, as 88% of the money bet against the spread is on Philadelphia.
  • The public absolutely loves the under (47) in the Falcons-Jaguars game. A whopping 98% of the over/under money bet on the game has been on the under.
    • A little bit of money has come in on the over in the Falcons vs Jaguars game, pushing the split to 94%-6% in favor of the under.

Public’s Betting Record

Week Public’s Record Against the Spread
1 5-11
2 7-8
3 8-8
4 10-6
5 10-6
6 8-6
7 7-5-1
8 6-6-1
9 5-9
10 5-9
11 6-9
TOTAL 77-83-2

The public got off to a rough start this season, going 5-11 against the spread in Week 1. They still put forth a losing record in Week 2, but it was a little better than the previous week. They went .500 in Week 3, which unfortunately still results in a losing margin thanks to the vig.

The public came out on top in Week 4, profiting from their ATS picks for the first time this season with a 10-6 record. They matched that record in Week 5, which also puts them above 50% on the season. They’re still slightly in the red for the season, though, thanks again to the vig.

The public posted a third straight winning week in Week 6, drawing them closer to breaking even for the season. They still remain a touch in the red, though. After yet another solid betting performance in Week 7, the public is now in the green for the first time this season.

In Week 2, the public was split 50-50 on the Bengals vs Bears game, which is why you’re only seeing a record for 15 games that week. The same happened for two different games in Week 8.

Week 9 was a tough one for the public but a good one for the books. The public suffered their first losing week since Week 2, going 6-8 ATS. The public has continued that losing streak through Week 11, getting roughed up for a 16-27 record over that three-week span.

You can see which teams they were backing below.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 11

NFL Week 11 betting trends

All trends as of Friday, November 19.

Here’s what we’re seeing for Week 11:

  • The most lopsided game in terms of ATS handle is the Steelers vs Chargers, where LA -5 is seeing 91% of money bet against the spread. They’re the only team with 90% or more of their respective money percentage
    • As the week has progressed, some more money has come in on Pittsburgh. However, 83% of the ATS betting handle is still on LA -5.5. With the news of Ben Roethlisberger likely playing, we might see the money even out a little more ahead of kickoff.
    • The Dolphins -3.5 is now the public’s favorite bet as of Friday. A whopping 84% of the money bet against the spread is on Miami to cover (vs the Jets).
  • The public loves the over (56.5) in the Cowboys vs Chiefs game, as 90% of the money is bet on that side
    • This split is down to 73% despite the total not moving. This is likely due to Amari Cooper being out.
    • Under 46.5 in Detroit vs Cleveland is now the most lopsided over/under, as 81% of the money bet is on the under.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 10

NFL Betting Trends

All trends as of Sunday, November 14

  • Earlier in the week, there were three games where the public had come in on the underdogs. Those were the Browns, Eagles and Seahawks with both the handle and bet count favoring all three. Now on Friday afternoon, that’s just the Browns and Eagles. The public has backed off the Seahawks with the potential for Aaron Rodgers to return pending a negative COVID test. The Seahawks were being backed with 67% and 55% of the handle and bet count respectively. That’s now swapped to 54% for both on the Packers.
  • When it comes to totals, a whopping 89% of the handle has come in on the Vikings vs Chargers Over 53. This is also the most equally split game on the moneyline with 54% of the handle on the Vikes, but 58% of the bets on the Chargers.
  • The biggest line movement from Wednesday’s splits to Friday’s have seen bettors siding with the Jets at home to the Bills. The Bills were 12.5-point favorites, but that line has come down to just 11 now. It’s likely the public is being a little gun-shy with backing the Bills in the double-digit range after their poor showing against the Jags last week.
    • That being said, at the current numbers, money is still on the Bills. 84% of the handle and 62% of the bets are on Buffalo.
  • We’ve seen a little reverse line movement on the Falcons vs Cowboys game. Earlier this week the line was Cowboys -8.5. 83% of the ATS handle was on the Cowboys, so too was 56% of the bets. However, as of Friday, Dallas is now -8. They’re still getting 84% of the ATS handle and 59% of the bet count.
  • The Sunday night total between the Chiefs and Raiders has crept up to 52 at DraftKings from 51.5. And while most of the handle (66%) is on the Under, 57% of the betting public are still riding with the Over
  • If you’re backing the 49ers on MNF, you’re basically alone on an island. The Rams have 96% of the handle and 92% of the bet count ATS. Those numbers are 95%/89% respectively when it comes to moneyline bets at -190.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 9

NFL Week 9 betting trends

All trends as of Sunday, November 7

  • The splits for Green Bay vs Kansas City will be updated shortly after the news of Aaron Rodgers being ruled out with COVID
    • Prior to Rodgers being ruled out, the Packers were seeing 81% of the money bet against the spread. As of Thursday, they’re down to just 53%. Heavy money has poured in on KC, who are now 7.5-point favorites
    • A little more money has come in on Green Bay leading up to Sunday, as 56% of the ATS handle is on the dogs to cover
  • The most lopsided game of Week 9 in terms of ATS handle is the Bills vs Jaguars, where the Bills (-14) are seeing 97% of the money bet against the spread – as the week goes on, the money has become more lopsided in the Bills favor, now reaching 97%; as of Sunday, it has fallen to 91%
    • The Patriots (-3.5) and Raiders (-3) are also seeing more than 90% of their respective ATS handles
    • The Patriots are still receiving 90% of the money bet against the spread as of Thursday, but the Raiders have fallen to 89%; as of Sunday, the Pats are down to 77% and Raiders 79%
  • The most lopsided over/under of the week is Over 46.5 in Cleveland vs Cincinnati, which is seeing 92% of the money bet
    • This remains the public’s favorite bet, but is down to 84% of the over/under handle

NFL Betting Trends for Week 8

NFL Week 8 betting trends

 

All betting splits as of Thursday, October 28

Here are some notes on what we’re seeing from the early money coming in on Week 8:

  • The public absolutely loves a handful of teams in Week 8. All of the following are receiving more than 90% of the money bet against the spread: Bengals -9.5 (98%), Buccaneers -4.5 (98%), Bills -13.5 (97%), Rams -14 (94%), Cowboys -2.5 (92%), Seahawks -3.5 (92%)
    • The Bucs have moved to 5.5-point favorites, which has resulted in more money coming in on the Saints. But not much more, as 94% of the money is on Tampa Bay
    • The Bills are down to 93% of the ATS money; the Rams are down to 93%; the Cowboys have dropped quite a bit down to 75%; the Seahawks have gone all the way down to just 66% of the money wagered on their game against Jacksonville.
  • There are two over/unders ties for the most lopsided of the week: over (48) in the Rams vs Texans game, which is seeing 98% of the money bet; and under (46) in Carolina vs Atlanta

NFL Betting Trends for Week 7

NFL Week 7 betting trends

All betting trends as of Saturday, October 23.

Here are some of the high-level notes for Week 7 betting trends:

  • The most lopsided game in terms of ATS handle in Week 7 is the Patriots vs Jets, where New England -6.5 is seeing 96% of the money bet against the spread. The Rams -14.5 (vs Lions) is the other bet receiving more than 90% of the money so far.’
    • New England is now a 7-point favorite and is still seeing 93% of the money as of Saturday
    • The spread in Detroit vs LA has also grown, and the result has been a good chunk of money coming in on the Lions, leaving 83% of the money on the Rams now
  • The over (47) in Baltimore vs Cincinnati is the most lopsided over/under bet so far in Week 7. The over is seeing 81% of the money wagered.
    • The Bengals vs Ravens total has been pulled off the board; this leaves the over (57.5) in Kansas City vs Tennessee as the most lopsided at the moment, with 75% of the money bet on that side

NFL Betting Trends for Week 6

NFL Week 6 Public Betting Trends

Betting trends as of Thursday at DraftKings.

Here are some notes on what we’re seeing so far for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season:

  • Just as we saw in Week 4, the last time the Chiefs were coming off a loss, the public is loving Kansas City to bounce back in Week 6 from their loss to the Bills last week. In the most lopsided money percentage of the week, the Chiefs (-6.5) are seeing 97% of the ATS money bet on their game against Washington.
    • Tampa Bay (-6.5), the LA Chargers (+2.5), and Buffalo (-5.5) are also seeing more than 90% of the money bet against the spread on their respective Week 6 games.
  • The over/under bet the public is most keen on this week is (surprisingly) an under. The total in the Bengals vs Lions game has been set at 48, but the betting public loves the under, which has seen 86% of the money wagered.

NFL Betting Trends for Week 5

NFL Week 5 betting trends

Betting trends as of Friday at DraftKings

Here are some notes on what we’re seeing from the public in Week 5:

  • The public is not as confident in any team this week as they were the Chiefs and Bucs last week. However, they are still high on the Titans (-4) over the Jaguars, with 88% of the ATS money on Tennessee. This is the most lopsided ATS money split of the week. It is followed closely by the Cowboys (-7) over the Giants, which has 87% of the money.
    • The Titans are now 4.5-point favorites in Week 5 as more money has come in on them to cover. Looking to the money bet against the spread in this game, 93% is now on Tennessee.
  • The public’s favorite over/under bet of the week is surprisingly an under. The Bears vs Raiders total is set at 44.5 and 95% of the money has been bet on the under. The public is also loving the over (50.5) in the Packers vs Bengals game. Of the money bet on the total, 92% of it has been on the over.
    • After Justin Fields was named the Bears starting quarterback moving forward, we have seen money come in on the over in the Bears vs Raiders game. The under now has 72% of the total money bet.
    • The most lopsided over/unders of the week now belong to the over (56) in Buffalo vs Kansas City and under (45) in Indianapolis vs Baltimore, both seeing 84% of the money

NFL Betting Trends for Week 4

NFL Week 4 betting trends

Here are some notes on what we’re seeing in Week 4:

  • The public LOVES the Buccaneers in Tom Brady’s return to Foxborough. A whopping 97% of the money is on Tampa Bay -7. However, it’s not the most lopsided ATS handle of the week. The public is even heavier on the Chiefs -7, which has 98% of the money bet against the spread in their game against the Eagles.
    • The Chiefs continue to see a crazy amount of the money bet, but they’re down to 96%  of the ATS money; the Pats are down to 95%.
    • Green Bay -6.5 (94% of ATS money), Tennessee -8 (92%), Cincinnati -7 (91%), Detroit +3 (89%), and Seattle +3 (86%) are other picks the public is high on this week
      • The Packers are the only team above who still holds at least 90% of the money wagered
  • The game with the most lopsided over/under money percentage is the Cardinals vs Rams. The total is set at 55, but 90% of the money bet on the total is on the over.
    • This is down to 85% as of Sunday

NFL Betting Trends for Week 3

NFL Betting Trends Week 3

Bet and money percentages as of Friday.

Here are some notes on what we’re seeing for Week 3:

  • The public is all over the Cardinals -7.5 in Week 3. In the most lopsided money percentage of the week, Arizona is seeing 97% of the money bet against the spread in their game against Jacksonville
    • The percentage is down to 96% as of today
    • The Panthers, Ravens, Titans, Bills, Broncos, and Buccaneers are also seeing more than 80% of the early money for Week 3
      • Denver and Tampa Bay have fallen out of this group, as there’s now 79% of the money on the Broncos and 73% on the Bucs
  • The most lopsided money percentage on an over/under in Week 3 comes in the Buccaneers vs Rams game, where 87% of the money is on the over (55.5)
    • Some money has come in on the under in this one, pushing it down to 79% of the money on the over
    • The under (48) in Indianapolis vs Tennessee is now the most lopsided, seeing 80% of the money

    NFL Betting Trends for Week 2

    Some notes on the Week 2 betting trends:

    • The public’s favorite bet right now is Kansas City -3.5, which is seeing a whopping 98% of the ATS handle right now
      • Even as of Friday, the Chiefs are still seeing 94% of the ATS money, the most lopsided handle of the week
    • The most lopsided handle for over/under bets right now is the Cowboys vs Chargers game, which has 97% of the early money on the over (55)
      • Some money has come in on the under in Dallas vs LA, but 72% of the money is still on the over. This is no longer the highest percentage of the week, though
      • The over (48.5) in Detroit vs Green Bay is now the most lopsided, with the overt seeing 80% of the money

      NFL Betting Trends for Week 1

      *All bet and money percentages updated as of September 10

      Here are some high-level notes for Week 1:

      • The most LOPSIDED GAME of the week in terms of ATS (against the spread) betting handle is the Packers vs Saints, where 91% (as of Friday) 92% of the money is on Green Bay -4 (as of Friday) -3.5. We are also seeing lopsided ATS money percentages in the following:
        1. 49ers vs Lions: 89% of money bet against the spread is on San Francisco -7.
          1. Down to 88% as of Friday.
        2. Ravens vs Raiders: 88% of ATS money is on Baltimore -4 (spread down to 3.5 as of Friday).
          1. Down to just 77% as of Friday. This is likely due to Gus Edwards and Marcus Peters getting hurt in practice yesterday, leaving Baltimore with Ty’Son Williams and newly signed Le’Veon Bell, Latavius Murray, and Devonta Freeman in the backfield.
        3. Cardinals vs Titans: 87% of ATS money is on Tennessee -2.5; this might change quickly once AZ sports betting goes live on September 9th, though.
          1. We were right! This is down to 76% of the money on Tennessee and Arizonans still have time to get some bets in on their Cardinals.
        4. Seahawks vs Colts: 86% of the money is on Seattle -2.5. The Seahawks continue seeing more and more of the money as we approach the weekend.
      • The most LOPSIDED GAME of the week in terms of ATS bet count is the Ravens vs Raiders. A whopping 92% of the bets made against the spread in this one are on Baltimore -4
        • This is down to just 83% as of Friday
        • The Packers -3.5 is now the most bet side of Week 1, seeing 86% of the bet count
      • The public is only siding with ONE UNDERDOG to cover right now: the Philadelphia Eagles (+3) vs Atlanta Falcons. At the moment, 60% of the ATS betting handle is on the underdog Eagles
        • This is now down to 58% of the handle being on Philadelphia
      • The TOTALS BET the public likes the most for Week 1 is Over 45 in the Jets vs Panthers game, where 88% of the over/under money is on the over
        • This over only has 76% of the handle now
        • The over in Cleveland vs Kansas City (54.5) now has the highest percentage of money on it, seeing 77% of the handle
      • There are currently seven nine UNDERDOGS seeing the majority of the moneyline betting handle in their respective games:
        1. Jaguars vs Texans: 63% of the moneyline handle is on Houston at +135 odds
          1. Updated to 61% on Friday
        2. LA Chargers vs Washington Football Team: 60% of the money is on Washington at +100 odds
          1. There is now more money bet on the Chargers to win (55%), but they have moved to being the underdogs now, so the public is still on the dog
        3. Jets vs Panthers: 59% of the money is on New York at +210 odds
          1. Now 60% of the moneyline handle on the Jets
        4. Eagles vs Falcons: 95% of the money is on Philadelphia at +160 odds
          1. Now 92% of the moneyline handle on the Eagles
        5. Steelers vs Bills: 61% of the money is on Pittsburgh at +250 odds
          1. More money coming in on Buffalo to win has pushed this down to just 57% of the moneyline handle being on Pittsburgh
        6. Broncos vs Giants: 71% of the money is on New York at +135 odds
          1. Now just 67% of the moneyline handle is on the Giants
        7. Dolphins vs Patriots: 55% of the money is on Miami at +140 odds
          1. More money continues coming in on Miami to win. We’re now seeing 64% of the moneyline handle on the Dolphins
        8. Vikings vs Bengals: money coming in later in the week has resulted in 54% of the handle being on Cincinnati now
        9. Cardinals vs Titans: after Arizona launched sports betting, we’ve seen the percentage of the moneyline handle on the Cardinals jump from 26% to 56%
      • There are two signals of potential SHARP ACTION so far in Week 1:
        1. Vikings vs Bengals: only 54% of the bets are on Minnesota -3, but 82% of the ATS money is on the Vikings, signaling some bigger bets placed on MIN
          1. Only a 15% difference now on Friday
        2. Broncos vs Giants: only 54% of the bets are on Denver -3, but 78% of the money is on the Broncos, signaling some bigger bets placed on DEN
          1. Only a 16% difference now on Friday

      We’ll keep these updated as the week progresses!

      Looking for the latest NFL odds? – Get current spreads, totals, and moneyline odds for all upcoming games this week here.

      What Are NFL Betting Trends?

      Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together trends based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total.

      What are Money Percentages?

      You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.

      The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.

      The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.

      What Are Bet Percentages?

      Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.

      To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.

      This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.

      How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?

      As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.

      For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.

      A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.

      This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.

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After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.