Minkah Fitzpatrick Traded to Dolphins for Jalen Ramsey – Who Do the NFL Odds Say Won the Trade?
By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football
Published:
- The Steelers acquired Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith from the Dolphins in exchange for Minkah Fitzpatrick and a pick swap
- Who won the Fitzpatrick/Ramsey trade according to the NFL odds?
- See the latest NFL futures for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins after they swapped All-Pro defensive backs
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins pulled off the biggest transaction of the NFL offseason (to date) on Monday. Pittsburgh sent 28-year-old three-time First-Team All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (2019, 2020. 2022) to the Miami Dolphins, acquiring 30-year-old three-time First-Team All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey (2017, 2020, 2021), along with tight end Jonnu Smith in a separate deal.
With the teams sort of trading like-for-like, the NFL futures didn’t move a ton after the deal. But both teams did see their odds improve in certain betting markets, though. The table below lists the Super Bowl, conference, division, and playoff odds for the Steelers and Dolphins, juxtaposing the pre-trade odds with the post-trade odds.
NFL Futures: Steelers vs Dolphins
The Steelers improved from +4500 to +4000 in the Super Bowl odds, which amounts to a small increase from 2.17% implied win probability to 2.44%. Pittsburgh also improved from +140 to +130 in the odds to make the NFL playoffs (41.67% to 43.48%).
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Miami’s Super Bowl odds haven’t budged, nor have their AFC championship odds or NFL divisional odds. Interestingly, their NFL playoff odds are now as short as +155 (39.22%).
Is Ramsey a Better Fit for Steelers Than Fitzpatrick?
It’s no secret that the Steelers needed help at cornerback. Pittsburgh finished 24th in the league in passing yards allowed last season (228.0). The Steelers already acquired veteran corner Darius Slay, and now add former All-Pro Ramsey to create one of the better 1-2 cornerback tandems in the league.
Ramsey will turn 31 in October but is still near the top of his game. He ranked 25th in coverage at PFF last season, allowing just two TDs in coverage all of 2024, while recording multiple interceptions for the fourth straight season. Overally, he rated as the tenth-best cornerback in the league at PFF (76.9 rating).
Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, had one of the worst seasons of his career. He finished the year ranked just 44th among safeties at PFF (65.2 rating). That’s a steep decline from his apex of 82.4 in 2022, when he graded out as the third-best safety in all of football. Of course, at age 28, Fitzpatrick still has a couple more years than Ramsey to turn things around.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
