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2024-25 College Football Playoff Odds: SMU Favored Over Alabama for Final Spot
Updated:
- Odds to make the College Football Playoff in 2024-2025 are available for top contenders
- SMU (-330) and Alabama (+240) are the only two teams available to bet on after conference championships
- See the projected 12-team bracket and College Football Playoff odds for final seeding positions
The 2024-25 college football season ushers in a new era with an expanded 12-team bracket, giving more programs than ever a shot at glory. From the Week 0 kickoff in August, it’s just three and a half months until the final CFP field is set.
We’ll be tracking the odds for college football teams to make and miss the playoffs throughout the year. Our regularly updated graphs provide a clear visual representation of how each team’s chances fluctuate throughout the season.
The final playoff field will be revealed on Sunday, December 10th at 12:00 PM ET. SMU and Alabama anxiously await their fate as the last two teams competing for the 12th and final spot in the expanded bracket
Odds to Make College Football Playoff
The current CFP Playoff odds have narrowed down to just two teams still available for wagering entering Selection Sunday: SMU (-330) and Alabama (+240). The odds suggest SMU has about a 77% chance of getting in, while Alabama sits at 23%.
With most other playoff spots virtually locked up, these two programs represent the final piece of the playoff puzzle that bettors can still speculate on. Here’s how their resumes stack up:
| Category | SMU | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-2 | 9-3 |
| Conference Title Game | Lost to Clemson 34-31 | Did Not Play |
| Key Wins | Louisville, Pittsburgh | Georgia, Missouri, LSU |
| Losses | BYU | Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma |
Projected 12-Team College Football Playoff Field
Here’s how the inaugural 12-team playoff field is expected to look heading into Selection Sunday:
| Seed | Team | Record | Conference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | 12-0 | Big 10 Champion |
| 2 | Georgia | 11-1 | SEC Champion |
| 3 | Boise State | 12-1 | Mountain West Champion |
| 4 | Arizona State | 12-1 | Big 12 Champion |
| 5 | Texas | 11-2 | At-Large |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 11-1 | At-Large |
| 7 | Penn State | 11-2 | At-Large |
| 8 | Ohio State | 10-2 | At-Large |
| 9 | Tennessee | 10-2 | At-Large |
| 10 | Indiana | 11-1 | At-Large |
| 11 | Clemson | 10-3 | At-Large |
| 12 | TBD (SMU/Alabama) | – | At-Large |
While the teams that will make up the historic first 12-team playoff field are nearly set, there’s still betting action available on where certain teams will be seeded.
The 5th through 7th seeds, in particular, have attracted significant betting interest. Here are the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook for these key seeding positions:
Final Seeding Odds
| Seed | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 5th Seed | Texas | -1600 |
| 5th Seed | Notre Dame | +1200 |
| 5th Seed | Penn State | +2900 |
| 6th Seed | Notre Dame | -125 |
| 6th Seed | Penn State | +115 |
| 6th Seed | Texas | +900 |
| 7th Seed | Penn State | -160 |
| 7th Seed | Notre Dame | +120 |
| 7th Seed | Ohio State | +2200 |
The seeding odds show Texas as a massive favorite to secure the 5th seed at -1600, while the 6th and 7th seed positions remain more contentious. Notre Dame is slightly favored for the 6th seed (-125), while Penn State is expected to land at #7 with -160 odds.
See the full odds to make the CFP from DraftKings Sportsbook in the table below.
- Dec. 7: Most teams are locked into the playoff field, leaving just SMU (-330) and Alabama (+240) available to bet on for the final spot
- Nov. 25: Oddsmakers have taken Oregon, Ohio State, Texas & Penn State off the board as they are virtual locks to make the College Football Playoff
- Nov 4: Ohio State is now the second-heaviest favorite to make the CFP at -3000 after beating Penn State in Week 10. However, the Nittany Lions are still alive, with their odds only dropping to -350 following the loss.
- Apr 29: Georgia (-500) and Ohio State (-450) have opened as the clear heavy favorites to make the 12-team CFP.
College Football Playoff Odds
| Team | Odds to Make CFP | Odds to Miss CFP |
|---|---|---|
| SMU | -330 | +260 |
| Alabama | +240 | -300 |
With just hours remaining until Selection Sunday, the playoff picture has largely taken shape. The only remaining question centers on the final spot, where SMU (-330) holds a significant edge over Alabama (+240) to claim the last position in the 12-team field.
The betting market’s strong lean toward SMU reflects their superior record (11-2 vs Alabama’s 9-3) and solid showing against Clemson in the ACC Title Game. However, Alabama’s victory over SEC champion Georgia keeps them firmly in the conversation despite missing their conference championship game.
Odds as of December 8th, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
CFP Qualification History
| Team | CFP Appearances | Most Recent |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 8 | 2023-24 |
| Clemson | 6 | 2020-21 |
| Ohio State | 5 | 2022-23 |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 2019-20 |
| Georgia | 3 | 2022-23 |
| Michigan | 3 | 2023-24 |
| Notre Dame | 2 | 2020-21 |
| Washington | 2 | 2023-24 |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 2021-22 |
| Florida State | 1 | 2014-15 |
| LSU | 1 | 2019-20 |
| Michigan State | 1 | 2015-16 |
| Oregon | 1 | 2014-15 |
| TCU | 1 | 2022-23 |
| Texas | 1 | 2023-24 |
Alabama leads all schools with eight CFP appearances since the four-team playoff debuted in 2014-15. The Crimson Tide have made the playoff in all but two seasons.
Ohio State and Clemson are tied for second with six appearances each, while Oklahoma (4) and Georgia (4) round out the top five. No other school has more than three CFP berths.
The 2023-24 season saw Texas make its first CFP appearance, while Michigan returned for the third consecutive year. Washington made its second-ever appearance, and Alabama continued its streak of frequent playoff berths. This marked a significant shift in the playoff landscape, with traditional powers like Clemson and Ohio State missing out.
With the playoff field expanding to 12 teams in 2024-25, expect to see some new blood in the bracket. Teams like Oregon, Penn State, and Tennessee are strong candidates to make their CFP debuts this season.
Archived CFP Odds:
Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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