2024 NFL Power Rankings Based on Opening Betting Lines

Warning: these are not your usual NFL power rankings. Instead of opinion, I choose to use betting lines provided by the sportsbooks to fill out SBD’s power rankings.

We got the opening betting odds for the 2024 NFL season almost immediately after the schedule was released on May 15. These spreads provide a great look into the expectations for each team this season. I have taken these spreads and calculated each team’s sum of spreads for all 17 games. This objective, quantitative measure is perfect for putting out some NFL power rankings as we prepare for the 2024 NFL season to kick off.

This differs slightly from a traditional power ranking, since it factors in NFL strength of schedule and is also rooted in numbers instead of pure speculation. Using a consistent method each year also allows us to draw trends based on past results, which you’ll see below.

2024 NFL Power Rankings | Super Bowl Favorites | Past Power Rankings | Trends from Power Rankings

To be clear, these are opening lines from the offseason for every week. We will not consider what the lines open at ahead of each week during the season. Obviously, with the way NFL spreads work – the favorite is giving up points – the more negative the ATS +/- is, the better the team is expected to be.

2024 NFL Power Rankings

This year’s NFL power rankings look much different than last year’s. The top team listed is last year’s Super Bowl losers: the San Francisco 49ers. Brock Purdy and company sit well above the field with a -82.5 ATS (against the spread) +/- for the 2024 NFL season. The 49ers are viewed as a slightly better team than last year’s top-ranked team, the Kansas City Chiefs, who had a -80 ATS +/-. The second-ranked team is the Kansas City Chiefs, the back-to-back Super Bowl champions, with a -74.5 ATS +/-.

It’s worth noting 2022 and 2021 saw the #1 team in our NFL power rankings listed at -115 and -106, respectively. Even in 2017, 2018, and 2019, when we only had spreads for 15 games —only a 16-game schedule in these seasons and sportsbooks did not release lines for Week 17—we saw better ATS +/- numbers than this season.

Prior to last year, to find a worse ATS +/- from the top-ranked team, we have to go back to 2016, when the Green Bay Packers were atop the power rankings with a -77 ATS +/-. (Again, this year had two fewer games in the calculation.) The takeaway from this is more parity to be expected this season. The league does not possess any team who stands so far above the rest.

Here’s a quick look at the two seasons with similar metrics for the top-ranked teams:

• In the 2016 season we saw the Patriots, who were ranked third in our power rankings heading into the season, take down the Atlanta Falcons, who were ranked 25th, in the Super Bowl. The third-ranked team in this year’s power rankings is the Baltimore Ravens, while the 25th is the Las Vegas Raiders. These two teams cannot meet in the Super Bowl, though, as they reside in the same conference.
• Last year, we saw the top-ranked Chiefs break the trend of top-ranked teams not winning the Super Bowl, beating the fourth-ranked 49ers. This year’s top-ranked team is the 49ers and the fourth-ranked team is the Bengals

The worst-ranked team in the power rankings is the New England Patriots, who are not far from the second-worst team, the Carolina Panthers.

Here are a handful of teams who see themselves in a very different position than last year:

• Houston Texans – Demeco Ryans and CJ Stroud wasted no time turning the Texans around! Houston entered last season ranked 31st in our NFL Power Rankings, but after an unbelievable rookie season from Stroud and some promise on defense, the defending AFC South champs rank 13th for 2024.
• Denver Broncos – There was some optimism in Denver last season with Sean Payton taking over and attempting to fix a broken Russell Wilson. The Broncos ranked 18th in 2023 but are now 30th with Wilson and a number of their other top players no longer in town.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers – the Tom Brady-led Bucs came in at #2 in 2022’s power rankings, but saw themselves at #30 heading into 2023 without Brady. Baker Mayfield steadied the ship and has Tampa Bay ranked 20th this year.
• Los Angeles Rams – after winning Super Bowl 56, the Rams entered the 2022 season #3 in the power rankings, but an awful injury-riddled season saw the Rams drop to 26th ahead of 2023. Matthew Stafford now has the Rams back up to 14th for 2024.
• Green Bay Packers – Jordan Love proved last year that he was capable of leading the Green Bay Packers the same way Aaron Rodgers did before him. Green Bay was 4th in our Power Rankings heading into 2022, which was Rodgers’ last season in Green Bay, dropped all the way to 20th as they entered 2023, which was Love’s first year under center, and now enter 2024 ranked 11th.
• Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are another team who has been very up-and-down over the last few years. Indianapolis ranked #9 in the power rankings for 2022 but had a terrible season. They came into last season ranked #28, but are now 19th with Anthony Richardson expected to be fully healthy.
• Detroit Lions – Dan Campbell’s squad just keeps growing! The Lions were ranked 25th in 2022, then 11th in 2023, and now 5th ahead of the 2024 season.
• Jacksonville Jaguars – It has been a rollercoaster ride for Doug Pederson’s Jags, as they have gone from 30th in 2022, to 6th last year, and now back down to 18th.
• Atlanta Falcons – Everyone is quite bullish on the Falcons this year after they acquired Kirk Cousins in free agency and moved on from Arthur Smith. Atlanta was ranked 19th last year but find themselves 8th this year.

Super Bowl Favorites from NFL Power Rankings

1) San Francisco 49ers

Last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, the San Francisco 49ers, come in as the top-ranked team in our 2024 NFL Power Rankings. Though there are still some uncertainties around Brock Purdy, and how long Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk will be around, the 49ers are still arguably the most complete team in the NFL. It feels like the Rams are the only team with any chance of knocking them off their perch in the NFC West, and neither Dallas or Philadelphia proved to be a threat to them last season.

2) Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs come in as the #2 team in the 2024 NFL power rankings even though they are atop the Super Bowl odds after winning their third championship in the last five seasons. Patrick Mahomes appears nearly unstoppable and Kansas City managed to add the fastest wide receiver in the draft this year in Xavier Worthy. The Chiefs also received a massive boost in re-signing DT Chris Jones to a multi-year deal, ensuring their dominant defensive lineman will stay in town.

3) Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore finished as the AFC’s #1 seed last year, but couldn’t take out the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. The Ravens are still a great team and Lamar Jackson keeps them as one of the top Super Bowl favorites.

4) Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are coming off a mediocre season, but that was a result of Joe Burrow not starting the season healthy and not being able to finish the season either. It appears Burrow will have at least one more year of the Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins duo at wide receiver, and Cincinnati chose to continue bulking up in the trenches in the draft. As a result, the Bengals enter the 2024 season ranked #4 in our Power Rankings.

5) Detroit Lions

The Lions were one really bad half away from heading to the Super Bowl last year. They enter this season ranked 5th thanks to returning nearly their entire core. Detroit also addressed their biggest need (defensive back) in the draft, using their first two picks on corners. While many are talking about the Bears loading up and/or the Packers surprise season under Jordan Love, it’s the Lions who remain heavy favorites to win the NFC North.

Power Rankings from Previous Seasons

Trends from ATS +/- in Past Seasons

• A team from the top four in ATS +/- has won the Super Bowl in five of the last nine seasons
• A team from the top eight has won the Super Bowl each of the last six seasons
• A team from the top four in ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in seven of the last nine seasons
• At least one team from the top three in ATS +/- has missed the playoffs in eight of the last nine seasons – the Bengals, who were ranked #2, missed the playoffs last season
• At least two of the top five have missed the playoffs in five of the last nine seasons – the Jaguars, who were the second-best ranked team to miss the playoffs last season, were ranked sixth
• The team with the worst ATS +/- has won more than five games only twice in the last nine seasons – the Falcons in 2023 and Commanders (then-Football Team) in 2020 are the only two to conquer this feat
• The team with the best ATS +/- has only won the Super Bowl twice in the last nine years – last year was the first time this happened since 2018
• At least two of the five worst teams in ATS +/- have gone on to lose 11+ games in eight of the last nine seasons – 2023 was the first time we saw this trend broken
• A team ranked between 18th and 25th of the ATS +/- has made the Super Bowl in four of the last nine seasons
• A team ranked between 18th and 25th of the ATS +/- has made their respective conference championship in five of the last nine years – the last four seasons are the ones where this did not come true
• Of the two teams with the worst ATS +/- each season, we’ve only seen two go on to make the playoffs – the 2023 Houston Texans and 2020 Washington Football Team
• Only eight teams who were in the bottom-five in ATS +/- have made the playoffs over the last eight years (2023 Texans and Buccaneers, 2022 Jaguars and Seahawks, 2021 Bengals, 2020 Football Team, 2018 Colts, and 2017 Rams)
• At least half of the top ten teams in ATS +/- have missed the playoffs in five of the last nine years – it did not happen in the last four seasons, but they also expanded the playoffs to include an extra wild card spot in each conference these seasons; last year saw three of the top ten miss and four of the top 12

2024 NFL Predictions Based Off Power Ranking Trends

If you’re planning on betting Super Bowl futures, your apparent only real options include: the 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Lions, Jets, Eagles, and Falcons. You might want to steer clear of San Francisco, though.

Trends from our power rankings also say one of the 49ers, Chiefs, or Ravens will miss the playoffs. I know, that’s hard to believe. It would be a very nice payout to hit, though. You can see your potential profit over in our NFL playoff odds. If you like that one, trends say one of the Bengals and Lions will also miss the playoffs.

It’s also bad news for New England. As the team ranked 32nd in our power rankings, the trend says they won’t win more than five games in 2024 – their NFL win total is set at 4.5.

What are the power rankings in the NFL right now?

All NFL teams are ranked from 1-32, with the San Francisco 49ers at the top and the New England Patriots at the bottom.

What is the best 2024 NFL team?

The San Francisco 49ers are currently ranked #1 in the NFL Power Rankings, but the Kansas City Chiefs are a close second.

What team is ranked number 2 in the NFL?

The Kansas City Chiefs are ranked #2 in the NFL Power Rankings behind the 49ers.

What is the worst NFL team in the league?

The New England Patriots are the worst-ranked team in the NFL Power Rankings.

Who are the top ten teams in the NFL?

The top ten teams in the NFL Power Rankings are: the 49ers, Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals, Lions, Jets, Eagles, Falcons, Bills, and Cowboys.