2026 MLB MVP Odds Tracker – Judge & Ohtani Once Again Open as Favorites

• Aaron Judge is the clear AL MVP frontrunner with odds ranging from +100 to -115 to win another MVP award
• Shohei Ohtani completely dominates the NL MVP futures market as a steep -400 favorite
• The graphs below track the changes in the AL MVP odds & NL MVP odds over the course of the 2026 season

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Welcome to your premier destination for handicapping MLB Most Valuable Player futures. Throughout the grueling 162-game schedule, the futures market for baseball’s most prestigious individual hardware is highly volatile. This tracker provides bettors with the quantitative edge needed to stay ahead of line movement, featuring live MVP odds, line histories, head-to-head contender breakdowns, and historical statistical profiles.

It is critical to remember that the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA) evaluates the American League (AL) and National League (NL) awards independently. Consequently, sportsbooks book these as two completely distinct betting markets. As superstars regress to their xFIP or surge in OPS, and as public handle shifts the lines, these futures will move aggressively. Whether you are hunting for plus-money value on an early-season sleeper or looking to fade a vulnerable preseason favorite, our data-driven tracker ensures you have the actionable intelligence required to locate closing line value (CLV) before the regular season handle dries up.

The graphs below are calculated by averaging the odds from our most-trusted online sportsbooks. You can track how the odds change throughout the season and shop for the best current lines in the MVP Favorites tables.

American League / National League

2026 American League MVP Odds

As of mid-May, the American League MVP market features a heavily backed frontrunner followed by a tight chasing pack. New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge sits at the top of the board, priced at +100 at DraftKings and MGM, while taking early sharp action to become a -115 odds-on favorite at William Hill New Jersey. Judge’s odds align perfectly with the Yankees’ strong 26-15 start to the campaign.

Trailing Judge is Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, carrying +450 odds across DraftKings and MGM. Despite Houston’s sluggish 16-25 record, Alvarez’s elite underlying metrics—including an MLB-best .510 xwOBA—firmly anchor his implied probability. Bobby Witt Jr. ranks third at +550 to +600 for the 19-22 Kansas City Royals, fueled by early WAR leadership. Further down the board, veteran Mike Trout (+1500 to +2200) and emerging dark horse Ben Rice (+1200 to +2500) offer intriguing down-ballot value. Rice has generated significant sharp interest after breaking out to lead the league in OBP (.455) and OPS (1.214).

American League MVP Favorites

AL MVP odds are updated every 15-60 minutes, with odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings, and others.

American League MVP Odds Movement Timeline

• May 11: Aaron Judge reaches odds-on favorite territory at William Hill New Jersey (-115) while holding steady at +100 at DraftKings and MGM, bolstered by the Yankees’ 26-15 start. Bobby Witt Jr. solidifies his position as the consensus third favorite (+550 to +600) following early WAR dominance for the Royals.
• May 4: Mike Trout’s unexpected resurgence forces sportsbooks to slash his odds from a +8000 longshot down to +1500 at BetMGM and +1800 at FanDuel, sparking massive trade speculation. Yankees youngster Ben Rice experiences violent line movement, surging from +15000 to +1000 at BetMGM as he forms a historic power duo alongside favorite Aaron Judge (+177).
• February 24: For the third year in a row, Aaron Judge has opened as favorite to win the AL MVP. The Yankees slugger is currently getting +225 to win his third-straight MVP, followed by Kansas City’s’ Bobby Witt Jr at +550 and last year’s runner-up, Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, at +850.

American League MVP Winners by Position

American League MVP Winners by Team

2026 National League MVP Odds

The National League MVP futures market is currently a one-horse race, with a massive odds-on favorite dictating the pricing. Shohei Ohtani completely dominates the board, priced at a steep -330 at DraftKings, -325 at MGM, and an incredibly short -400 at William Hill New Jersey. Ohtani’s commanding minus-money pricing stems from elite two-way production—including a 0.97 ERA across six starts and an NL Pitcher of the Month award—coupled with the Dodgers’ 24-16 record.

Behind Ohtani, Matt Olson has emerged as the clear consensus second choice. Oddsmakers list the slugger at +800 on MGM and +900 across DraftKings and William Hill, heavily buoyed by the Atlanta Braves’ stellar 28-13 start. The secondary tier features a tight chasing pack of high-ceiling talent. Elly de la Cruz sits third at +2200 (DraftKings) for the 22-19 Reds, closely followed by Corbin Carroll (+2500) and Bryce Harper (+2500). Kyle Schwarber (+2000 at William Hill) also remains firmly in the upper echelon of the betting board.

National League MVP Favorites

NL MVP odds are updated every 15-60 minutes, with odds provided by FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook, among others. 

National League MVP Odds Movement Timeline

• May 11: Matt Olson settles in as the distant but consensus second-favorite (+800 at MGM, +900 at DraftKings), riding the momentum of the Braves’ NL-best 28-13 record. Ohtani is a prohibitively short -355 betting favorite.
• May 4: Shohei Ohtani’s implied probability balloons to over 80%, peaking at a -450 price tag at Caesars as his pitching metrics remain elite. Carroll separates from the trailing pack as the consensus +1700 second-choice at FanDuel and BetMGM.
• February 24: It should come as no surprise that the Dodger’s dual threat, pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, opens as an overwhelming favorite to win once again win the NL MVP. Ohtani opens at -115, well ahead of the Mets’ Juan Soto (+800) and the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr (+1200).

National League MVP Winners by Position

National League MVP Winners by Team

MLB MVP Formula

Evaluating futures in the Most Valuable Player market requires stripping away narrative bias and looking strictly at the statistical profile that historically cashes tickets. The modern BBWAA voter relies heavily on a hybrid of elite run production and advanced analytics. Winners almost universally clear massive benchmarks in home runs and RBIs, while pairing that raw counting data with an elite OPS. Just as importantly, bettors must weigh team success; while outliers exist, voters heavily favor superstars who drive their clubs to the postseason. A high-WAR player on a sub-.500 team is historically a bad bet at short odds.

The Stats That Matter Most for MLB MVPs

To find an edge in the MVP futures market, bettors need to handicap the metrics that actually drive the voting consensus:

• Wins Above Replacement (WAR): WAR is the ultimate all-encompassing metric for MVP voters. It quantifies a player’s total value across hitting, fielding, and baserunning. If a player is not projecting to finish top-three in their league in WAR, their implied probability of winning the award plummets.
• On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS): OPS is the gold standard for offensive efficiency. MVP favorites generally clear elite OPS thresholds, proving they can blend on-base consistency with massive slugging power.
• Home Runs: As the premier counting stat, home runs still heavily manipulate the handle and the voters. A typical MVP campaign requires ranking near the top of the league leaderboard.
• Team Success: Making the playoffs heavily influences the voting outcome. Bettors should heavily discount the odds of players on losing rosters, as elite metrics compiled on division-winning teams carry significantly more weight.
• Narrative and Storyline: Because the award relies on human voters, subjective elements occasionally break ties. Overcoming injury, historic milestones, or carrying a team through a late-season pennant race can swing a close race.

Can a Pitcher Win an MLB MVP Award?

While the Cy Young market is built to honor the league’s best arms, a starting pitcher can technically cash an MVP ticket – though it remains an exceptionally rare anomaly. In the modern era, a starting pitcher claiming the MVP requires a perfect storm: an absolutely dominant, historically-significant season on the mound coupled with an incredibly weak crop of position players.

Because pitchers only impact a fraction of their team’s schedule, the barrier to entry is staggering. Justin Verlander (2011 AL) and Clayton Kershaw (2014 NL) required generational statistical profiles to sway the BBWAA. Shohei Ohtani, however, has fundamentally broken this historical model. By accumulating immense WAR simultaneously as both an elite starting pitcher and a premier designated hitter, Ohtani represents a unique market force that traditional MVP handicapping formulas simply cannot compute.

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Archived MLB MVP Odds –

• 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018