California Prediction Markets: Are They Legal & How to Trade

While hundreds of millions have been spent lobbying to legalize sports betting in California, the state continues to block traditional sports betting platforms; however, certain federally regulated prediction markets are accessible to Californians, creating a unique alternative for event trading. These prediction markets are governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and operate as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). This means they are legal across the country as they follow federal commodities law rather than state-based gambling laws.

This means anyone 18 years and older in California can participate in the buying and selling of event contracts on a wide range of topics, ranging from whether the Dodgers win the World Series in 2026 to who will be the next governor of California to what will be the highest temperature in San Francisco today. Not only is there an endless array of prediction markets, but there is also a growing number of prediction market platforms, led by names like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Novig, allowing users to find the option that is most closely tailored to their preferences.

Top Prediction Market Apps Available in California

See a detailed breakdown of some of the best prediction markets for trading in California.

Kalshi California

Kalshi is a fully CFTC-regulated prediction market platform that allows Californians to legally trade contracts on sports, economics, weather, culture, and political outcomes. Since gaining approval from the CFTC to operate as a DCM on November 4, 2020, and launching its platform in July 2021, Kalshi has become one of the most recognizable names in the now crowded field of prediction markets.

Kalshi is one of the most user-friendly prediction market platforms out there. Unlike other platforms that require users to set up a cryptocurrency wallet and fund it before being able to make a deposit to their prediction market account, Kalshi streamlines the deposit process by allowing users to fund their accounts directly from a debit card and ACH banking. Making it easy for those new to prediction markets in California was a clear priority when designing their website and app, as both feature very clean and intuitive user interfaces. It is very simple to find a specific market by using the search bar, which recommends markets as the user types in their search.

Read our detailed Kalshi review to learn everything there is to know about one of the top trading apps available in California. New customers looking to trade on Kalshi prediction markets in California can sign up using the Kalshi promo code DIME15 here to unlock a $15 bonus after completing $15 in trades.

Novig California

Novig is the latest platform to receive CFTC approval to operate as a DCM and offer federally regulated prediction markets. This approval will open the door for Novig to launch in many states, including California, where its access has been previously restricted due to several states’ sweepstakes laws. In Novig’s current state, users purchase Novig coins, which have no real-world value, to enter sweepstakes or practice making trades on their platform. Users can then win Novig Cash from contests or receive Novig Cash as a bonus for making purchases, which can be turned into actual cash after meeting its play-through requirements on the app’s prediction markets.

Novig only offers prediction markets on sports, which, for some, will help cut out the noise of other prediction markets and get them to the markets they care about faster. Adding another layer to the feel of the sportsbook is that Novig allows users to choose from pre-made parlays or build their own. The user interface is also very reminiscent of a sportsbook, so much so that it skips displaying the odds in cents or implied win probability in favor of the way used for traditional sportsbook odds.

One major area that Novig differs from a sportsbook is that with Novig, there is no “vig” built into the price of contracts, which in turn creates more transparent market pricing. The other big difference is that traders are not playing against the house on Novig; instead, they are buying and selling contracts against other users in this peer-to-peer exchange.

Check out our detailed Novig review to learn more about trading on their sports prediction markets. New traders can click here to use the Novig promo code SBD50 and get $50 in Novig Coins after spending $5.

Polymarket California

Polymarket has had a rocky road to becoming a prediction market that is legal in California and over 40 other states across the country. After operating for two years, following a settlement with the CTFC, Polymarket was accused of running an unregistered derivatives trading platform. This resulted in the platform blocking US users’ IP addresses from making any trades. In its absence, other prediction markets, like Kalshi, were able to significantly grow their user base.

While Polymarket was unable to operate in the US, it was able to cement itself as the largest prediction market globally, with various markets having carried over $3B in volume, such as its market on the “2024 US Presidential Winner” and the “2026 World Cup Winner.” In December 2025, Polymarket was allowed to resume operations in the US as a federally regulated exchange under the CFTC. However, it’s important for users to be aware that the US Polymarket app operates separately from the global version of the prediction market platform.

Now that Polymarket can legally operate its prediction markets in California and many other states in the US, it has become the king of liquidity. Users will have little to no problem executing trades or selling before a market closes, as most markets typically carry large market volume with many users looking to buy and sell their event contracts. Along with having tons of liquidity, it also has seemingly endless prediction markets to choose from, ranging from hot topics like who will win the World Cup to more niche options like monthly rainfall in Seoul.

Read our in-depth Polymarket review to learn more about the world’s leading prediction market exchange. New users who sign up here using the Polymarket promo code DIME will unlock a $50 bonus after making a $20 deposit.

OG

While OG may be one of the newest names in the game, it has already established itself as a real player for traders looking for prediction markets in California. Created by Crypto.com, it entered the crowded field with the backing of a highly recognizable brand that could generate plenty of PR and trust among users. Much like the other major names, OG is a CFTC-regulated prediction market where users can trade on sports, politics, economics, and cultural outcomes.

OG focuses heavily on the social aspect of trading on its peer-to-peer exchange. Users can join chats and get involved with the community as events unfold in real-time and view leaderboards to see how they stack up against other traders. Along with the social aspect, customers can also build their own parlays to add a bit more complexity to standard trading mechanisms. Similar to Novig, OG displays market prices in a traditional sportsbook style, rather than how one would see them displayed on Kalshi or Polymarket.

Read our comprehensive OG review to learn all there is to know about one of the most popular trading apps available. New customers can claim the welcome offer here to trade $10 and get a $10 in bonus on OG.

FanDuel Predicts

FanDuel Predicts is another newcomer to the prediction market scene, backed by the mobile gaming giant FanDuel Group and CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. With these two titans of their respective industries teaming up to create the FanDuel Predicts app, it will have immediate trust among many users across the country.

FanDuel Predicts operates as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) that is regulated by the CFTC. This differs from its competitors, which operate as DCMs. As an FCM, FanDuel Predicts acts as a broker that gives users access to stock exchanges, but it’s not the exact place where the trades occur. In order to expand its available prediction markets, FanDuel Predicts has partnered with Crypto.com to offer more market types through its CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, OG.

Users familiar with FanDuel Sportsbook, FanDuel Casino, or FanDuel Daily Fantasy Sports will feel right at home with the FanDuel Predicts app, as it looks and feels just like the other apps. Deepening its user-friendly experience is the ability to choose how the price of each contract is displayed. Users can choose from having them displayed as the potential return ratio, traditional odds, dollar pricing, or market probability.

While FanDuel Predicts is working on expanding its market selection through its Crypto.com partnership, in its current state, it offers fewer niche markets than its competitors. Users in California and other states that do not have legalized sports betting will have access to the apps’ sports prediction markets; those in states with legal sports betting will not be able to access those markets.

New users can claim a $25 sign-up bonus here by using the FanDuel Predicts promo code when they register for an account.

Current Legality: Are Prediction Markets Legal in California?

For years, sportsbooks have been fighting, unsuccessfully, to gain entry into California. Most recently, Prop 26 and Prop 27 each raised well over $100 million in support to legalize sports betting in some form in the state in 2022, but neither prop advanced. The next opportunity California has to bring sports betting to the state will not be until 2028. However, the rise of prediction markets brings Californians an alternative option to buy a stake in the outcomes of sports, politics, finance, and various other outcomes.

With prediction markets acting as federally regulated financial markets under the governance of the CFTC, they are allowed to legally accept trades from California residents. Unlike sports betting, which is not federally legal and requires state-by-state approval, trading on derivatives is federally legal, meaning it is allowed in all 50 states.

While prediction markets are legal across the country, several states, including Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin, have entered legal battles to restrict market types and prediction markets as a whole. So far, only Minnesota has a comprehensive legislative ban on the prediction markets operating within the state.

The California legislature has not launched any legal battles against the use of prediction markets in the state, but that does not mean Kalshi and others have had a smooth ride entering the state. Three California tribes unsuccessfully sued Kalshi and Robinhood, claiming their sports prediction markets were a form of illegal gambling and in violation of the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.

Kalshi and Robinhood are also facing a class-action lawsuit filed in California’s Northern District Court this past April. The lawsuit accuses them of operating an unlicensed sportsbook that framed traditional sports bets as regulated investing. However, this court case is still ongoing, and in the meantime, prediction markets. including those offering sports contracts, are able to continue operating in California.

California State Attorney General Rob Bonta has joined a group of 37 state attorneys general that support Ohio and New Jersey’s efforts to have more power to regulate prediction market platforms. So while Banta has not targeted prediction markets in California, he has shown that he is against the platforms using federal laws to skirt state laws on sports gambling.

States, and even the CFTC, have faced an uphill battle in trying to restrict various markets available on these prediction market platforms. In 2024, the CFTC sued to restrict access to prediction markets on elections; however, a federal appeals court unanimously ruled against them, stating there was no evidence of how these markets would cause irreparable harm to the public.

Popular California Markets to Trade

With well over a dozen professional sports teams playing in California, prediction markets offer a massive selection of event contracts for every team, ranging from who will win a game to player props to team futures. California traders will be able to find markets on everything from the professional level down to college sports for both men’s and women’s teams.

California Baseball Prediction Markets

With the reigning MLB World Champions, the LA Dodgers calling California home, traders around Los Angeles will be eager to claim their stake on a potential Dodgers repeat in the World Series. Currently, the Dodgers are the favorites to bring home the hardware with an implied win probability of 30% and over $7M of the market’s volume behind them.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, LA Angels fans can buy event contracts on their team, ending the season with the worst record in the MLB. Right now, the Angels have the third-best chance in the race to the bottom at 12%, with the Rockies holding a commanding lead at 66%, and the Mets hold a 15% implied win probability.

California Basketball Prediction Markets

The NBA season may have just ended, but there are still plenty of Polymarket prediction markets for Californians to trade on during the offseason. One of the most popular markets is who will be Lebron James’ next team. Traders are divided on whether or not James will stay with the Lakers, currently at 40% on Polymarket, or make the move north to join the Golden State Warriors, currently sitting at 48%.

The markets aren’t limited to just players and game-specific outcomes; users can also trade on when Coach Kerr will be let go from the Warriors or if Seattle will get an NBA team by 2030. Traders can also find markets for the WNBA and buy contracts on whether or not the Golden State Valkyries will make it to the semi-finals.

California Football Prediction Markets

Hot off the deep playoff run, some California-based traders will be happy to see the LA Rams are the current favorites to win it all next year. Currently, the Rams are carrying a strong lead with a 17% implied win probability on OG’s prediction markets. 17% might not sound like the most confident pick, but the reigning champs, the Seahawks, only have an 8% win probability, with Buffalo and Cincinnati both at 7%.

Traders can also buy contracts on whether or not Justin Herbert, who is currently in a three-way tie with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, will be the 2026 NFL MVP or if the San Francisco 49ers will be Maxx Crosby’s next team.

The California prediction markets are not just limited to the NFL; users can also find markets on college football, as well as the CFL. California traders can find Kalshi prediction markets on how many wins USC will have or if the team that wins the National Championship will be from the Big Ten.

Other California Prediction Markets

Prediction markets offer California residents more than just the ability to trade on the outcomes of sporting events, but also on the results of elections, climate events, technology, and science events. These markets can range from the race for Mayor of Los Angeles to national and international presidential elections.

1. California Governor Elections: Now that the crowded primary for California’s governor has ended, traders are left with just two options to pick from: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton. Becerra currently has a commanding lead at 90%, with Hilton needing to make up a lot of ground in a Democratic-leaning state. Users can also trade on prop prediction markets related to the California Governor’s Elections, such as voter turnout.
2. West Coast Weather & Climate: There are also California prediction markets on weather and natural disasters in the state. Traders can find markets on the highest and lowest temperatures for the day in both Los Angeles and San Francisco, along with how much rain each city will get during July. There are also Kalshi prediction markets unique to California, like whether an 8-magnitude earthquake will hit the state before 2027 and whether California will experience an exceptional drought before August.
3. Silicon Valley & Tech Outcomes: As the home to Silicon Valley, there are plenty of prediction markets on technology companies that call California home. Users can trade on which company will have the best AI model by the end of the year, when certain AI models will be released, the hourly cost of Nvidia products, and when companies like OpenAI or Anthropic will go IPO.

Prediction Markets vs. California Sports Betting

While some politicians argue in court that prediction markets and sports betting are the same at their core, one is federally legal, and the other still requires state-by-state legalization. Prediction markets are legal in California and operate in over 40 states, unlike sports betting, which is only legal in 39 states, with just 30 allowing online sportsbooks.

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell financial contracts on public data and are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Buying and selling financial contracts is a practice that is allowed across the country and has opened the door for Polymarket to offer prediction markets in California on topics ranging from sports to politics to cultural events. Prediction markets are categorized as “derivatives and commodities trading,” not “sports betting,” which allows them to circumvent California’s strict sports gambling bans.

DraftKings and FanDuel have tried to help lobby for the legalization of California sports betting. In 2022, several sportsbook operators. including DraftKings and FanDuel, backed Prop 27 that would have legalized sports betting in partnership with the California tribes; however, it only received 16% of the votes in its favor. Californians will have to wait until 2028 to have another opportunity at bringing online sports betting to their state.

So while sports betting with DraftKings in California remains illegal, residents can turn to legal prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to trade on sporting event outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Can I legally use Kalshi in California?

Yes, Kalshi’s prediction markets are legal in California, as they are a form of derivatives and commodities trading and regulated by the CFTC.

Why is Polymarket blocked in California but Kalshi isn’t?

While Polymarket was at one point blocked in California and across the U.S., users now have access to Polymarket prediction markets in California and over 40 other states. It was initially blocked in the U.S. after reaching a settlement with the CFTC in January 2022 for operating as an unregistered derivatives trading platform. Polymarket was able to re-enter the U.S. market in November 2025.

Do I have to pay California state tax on prediction market winnings?

Yes, traders must pay California state tax on prediction market winnings. These winnings are seen as “property” and are subject to a capital gains tax. Users should be aware that this differs from winnings from a sportsbook or casino, which are filed as “gambling income.”