We are tracking the odds to win all eight divisions for the 2022-23 NFL season. Get the most recent NFL divisional odds for the upcoming season, and track how the odds change throughout the regular season.
The New England Patriots have won the AFC East in 11 of the last 13 seasons, and 16 of the last 19. The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills (last two years) are the teams to take it from the Pats in that timeframe.
The Buffalo Bills had been suffering through the longest drought before winning the division the last two years. Prior to their 2020 AFC East championship, they had not won the division since 1995. But none of that matters now that they’re back-to-back AFC East champions.
|New England Patriots||+400|
|New York Jets||+2500|
Odds as of March 23 from Caesars Sportsbook.
Here are some notes on the AFC East odds movement:
- [March 23] With the acquisition of Tyreek Hill, the Miami Dolphins’ divisional odds quickly improved from +675 to +430. It didn’t take long for their odds to continue improving, now landing at +400. This ties them with the Patriots for the second-best odds to win the AFC East, while Buffalo remains the favorite. The Bills’ odds did worsen a little, though, going from -225 to -185.
- [February 24] The Buffalo Bills, who have won the AFC East each of the last two seasons, have opened as heavy odds-on favorites to win the division in the 2022-23 NFL season. The Patriots have opened with the second-best odds to win the AFC East at +330, while the Jets are again extreme long shots at +2500.
Three different teams have won the AFC North in the last three seasons. The Cleveland Browns are the odd team out, not having won the division since 1989. The Bengals are the reigning AFC North champions after their remarkable 2021-22 season.
Odds as of March 23.
Here are some notes on the AFC North odds movement:
- [March 18] The Cleveland Browns have gone from the third-best odds to win the AFC North to the best odds after Deshaun Watson has chosen them as his preferred trade destination. Cleveland will be giving up three first-round picks, as well as a third-round and a fourth-round pick. They have taken over as the favorites to win their division already. Both Cincinnati and Baltimore see their divisional odds fade from +175 to +210.
- [March 13] Adding Amari Cooper from the Cowboys has not resulted in the Browns’ AFC North odds improving whatsoever, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
- [March 9] The Bengals and Ravens are now listed as co-favorites to win the AFC North. There has not been any major player movement to drive this change, rather the public feeling Cincinnati may not be perennial contenders just yet.
- [February 24] After surprisingly winning the AFC North last season, the Bengals have opened as the favorites to win the division again in 2022. They are only slight favorites over the Ravens, who are given +190 odds to win the AFC North. With Ben Roethlisberger retiring, the Steelers are given the worst odds to win the division at +650.
The AFC South has been claimed by the Houston Texans in six of the last 11 seasons. The Tennessee Titans reign as back-to-back AFC South champs, though, snapping a drought that hadn’t seen them win it since 2008.
Odds as of March 23.
Here are some notes on the AFC South odds movement:
- [March 21] With the Colts acquiring Matt Ryan, Indianapolis is now listed as the co-favorite to win the AFC South alongside the Tennessee Titans. The Colts’ odds improved from +150 to +115.
- [March 11] After trading away their starting quarterback Carson Wentz, the Colts’ divisional odds went from +145 to +150. Sportsbooks obviously do not think much of Wentz, and believe Indianapolis will wind up with a serviceable quarterback for the 2022-23 NFL season.
- [February 24] The Titans have opened as the odds-on favorites to win the AFC South in the 2022-23 NFL season. The Colts aren’t too far behind at +140 odds, as uncertainty at quarterback is potentially having a positive impact on their odds vs the team relying on Carson Wentz. The Jaguars and Texans find themselves listed at +1100 and +2200 odds, respectively.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos are the only two teams to have claimed the AFC West in the last 12 seasons, with the former having won it each of the last six seasons.
The Chargers have not won the division since 2009 and you have to go back to 2002 to see the last time the Raiders sat atop the AFC West.
|Kansas City Chiefs||+155|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+250|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+700|
Odds as of March 23.
Here are some notes on the AFC West odds movement:
- [March 23] While everyone else in the division seems to be adding serious star power to their roster, the Chiefs have lost their top receiver Tyreek Hill. Kansas City has traded Hill to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a package of five draft picks, one of them being Miami’s first-round pick in 2022. The Chiefs’ divisional odds continue to worsen as a result, going from +130 to +155. Everyone else in the division sees slight improvement to their odds to win the AFC West.
- [March 18] Though the Raiders still have the worst odds to win the AFC West after acquiring Davante Adams, they did improve from +1100 to +700. Kansas City’s odds faded a little more as a result, now landing at +130.
- [March 13] The Chiefs are still favored to win the AFC West, but are no longer the odds-on favorites after the Chargers made a big splash of their own, acquiring Khalil Mack from the Bears. Kansas City’s odds to win the division are just +100 now, while LA’s only improved from +425 to +400.
- [March 9] The Chiefs have gone from -175 favorites to win the AFC West to -110 favorites after the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade with the Seahawks. Denver’s divisional odds improved from +430 to +240, the second-best odds to win the division.
- [February 24] The opening odds to win the AFC West list the Kansas City Chiefs as -175 favorites. The Chargers come in second at +400 odds, with the Broncos just behind them at +450. Denver’s potential to land Aaron Rodgers is the reason we aren’t seeing their divisional odds open longer.
The NFC East has not had a repeat winner since the Philadelphia Eagles won four straight from 2001-2004. Three different teams have won the division in the last three years, with Dallas being the reigning NFC East champion. The Giants have not won the NFC East since 2011.
|New York Giants||+800|
Odds as of March 23.
Here are some notes on the NFC East odds movement:
- [March 11] The Washington Commanders have traded for Carson Wentz, but their divisional odds only improved from +500 to +475.
- [February 24] The Dallas Cowboys have opened as heavy odds-on favorites to win the NFC East. The Eagles and Washington Commanders are give +350 and +500 odds, respectively. The Giants trail well behind at +900.
Three different teams have won the NFC North in the last five years, with the Packers being back-to-back-to-back champs entering 2022. The Detroit Lions are the odd team out, as they haven’t won the division since 1993. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the division more recently (1999), but were relocated to the NFC South in 2002.
|Green Bay Packers||-180|
Odds as of March 23.
Here are some notes on the NFC North odds movement:
- [March 18] The Packers remain heavy odds-on favorites to win the NFC North despite trading away their best receiver, Davante Adams, to the Raiders. Green Bay’s odds did fade slightly, though, from -210 to -190.
- [March 9] Thanks to Aaron Rodgers announcing he will be returning to the Packers for the 2022-23 NFL season, Green Bay’s divisional odds improved from -145 to -200. Minnesota’s NFC North odds fell from +240 to +340 with Rodgers staying put.
- [February 24] Due to the uncertainty around Aaron Rodgers’ future, it took sportsbooks a little longer to open the NFC North odds. However, they are now available and list the Packers as -150 favorites to win the division. The Vikings are second on the board at +250 odds, with the Bears and Lions well back at +600 and +1200. respectively.
The New Orleans Saints became the second team to repeat as NFC South champions in 2018, joining the Panthers, who won the division from 2013-2015. New Orleans went on to win the NFC South in four straight seasons from 2017 to 2020, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers snapping that streak in 2021.
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-280|
|New Orleans Saints||+450|
Odds as of March 23 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are some notes on the NFC South odds movement:
- [March 21] With the Saints re-signing Jameis Winston and the Falcons dealing Matt Ryan, to sign Marcus Mariota, Tampa Bay’s odds to win the NFC South continue getting better.
- [March 18] New Orleans and Atlanta both missed out on Deshaun Watson, as he chose to waive his no-trade clause to be dealt to the Browns instead. Tampa Bay has gone back to -225 odds to win the NFC South, and the rest of the division sees their odds fade significantly.
- [March 17] The Saints’ divisional odds have improved from +475 to +300 thanks to the belief that New Orleans is the front-runner to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Texans. Atlanta’s odds have also improved significantly, though, going from +1300 to +300 as well. The Falcons are the other team believed to be in the Watson sweepstakes. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Saints at +275 and Falcons at +400.
- [March 13] Tom Brady has announced he is unretiring and returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the 2022-23 NFL season. The Bucs have moved from +125 favorites to win the NFC South to -225 odds-on favorites. The Saints saw their odds fall from +260 to +475.
- [February 24] In spite of Tom Brady retiring, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have still opened as the favorites to win the NFC South in the 2022-23 NFL season. They are not odds-on favorites, though, with most sportsbooks listing them around +110 odds. The other three teams are bunched between +300 and +500 odds to win the division, with the Saints being second on the board.
The LA Rams won the NFC West in 2021, en route to winning Super Bowl 56. It was their third division title in the last five years. All four teams have won the division in the last seven years, though, with the Arizona Cardinals riding the longest drought.
|Los Angeles Rams||+150|
|San Francisco 49ers||+180|
Odds as of March 23.
Here are some notes on the NFC West odds movement:
- [March 9] The Seahawks’ odds to win the NFC West were already pretty long at +600, but faded to +750 after the team traded franchise quarterback Russell Wilson.
- [February 24] The LA Rams have opened as the favorites to win the NFC West in the 2022-23 NFL season. But they are far from heavy favorites. The Rams are given +150 odds, while the 49ers are close behind at +200, and even the Seahawks, who are given the worst odds, are listed at +550.
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