Political Odds – SC and Nev Promise More Provocation

You have to hand it to the Republican Party these days – if you don’t, they’ll probably drop it.

Facing a divided Democratic Party and looking at a golden opportunity to take the White House, feuding Republican candidates are doing everything they can to commit suicide by mouth.

John Kasich is explaining why expanding Obamacare in Ohio was a good idea. Marco Rubio is explaining why he is not really a robot. Jeb Bush is explaining that his family is actually pretty cool despite all those wars. Ted Cruz is explaining that he tells the truth on occasion. And front-runner Donald Trump is explaining that he didn’t really try to throw an old lady out of her house in Atlantic City. (Apparently he’s going to do all his explaining sans profanity now. But I’ll believe that when I see it. Rather, I’ll believe that when I don’t hear it.)

I almost forgot Ben Carson. But, to be honest, there’s no explanation for Ben Carson.

Republican voters in South Carolina will try to make sense of it all when they go to the polls on Saturday, assuming none of the six remaining candidates are charged with murdering one of the others before then.

The GOP’s South Carolina’s primary (Feb. 20) precedes the Nevada caucus (Feb. 23), which precedes Super Tuesday (March 1). Super Tuesday, when voters from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia, and Texas will take center stage, is being dubbed the “SEC primary” this year. Texas and Virginia aren’t in the SEC, but what the heck, the SEC primary it is.

The calendar is reversed for the Dems, who will caucus in Nevada on Feb. 20 and head to the polls in South Carolina on Feb. 23.

Who’s going to emerge from the steaming piles? To the odds! As always, we start with the Trumpiest propositions (the Trumpositions?).

2016 Presidential Primary Odds (South Carolina and Nevada)

Over/under on how many times Trump will curse in public between Friday, Feb. 19 (the day before the GOP’s South Carolina primary) and Tuesday, Feb. 23 (the day of the Nevada caucus):

Over/under: 12.5 (using a liberal definition of “curse”).

Odds on who Donald Trump will mock/insult the most during his victory/concession speech following the GOP’s South Carolina primary:

Ted Cruz: 2/5
Hillary Clinton: 5/1
Barack Obama: 6/1
Marco Rubio: 8/1
Jeb Bush/George Bush: 10/1 

Odds to win the Nevada caucus (DEM):
Clinton: 10/11
Sanders: 11/10

Odds that the Democrats’ Nevada caucus will be too close to call as of 11:59 PM on Saturday, Feb. 20: 3/1

Odds to win the South Carolina primary (GOP):
Trump: 2/9
Cruz: 6/1
Rubio: 12/1
Bush: 30/1
Kasich: 50/1
Carson: 75/1

South Carolina primary spread (GOP):
Trump (-12.5) vs. second-place finisher

South Carolina primary spread (DEM):
Clinton (-19.5) vs. Sanders

Odds Clinton and Trump both win by 20-plus points in South Carolina: 7/1

Odds that _____ wins the South Carolina primary and _____ wins the Nevada caucus (GOP):
Trump-Trump: 2/7
Trump-Cruz: 8/1
Trump-Rubio: 35/1
Trump-Bush: 150/1
Trump-Kasich: 350/1
Trump-Carson: 350/1

Cruz-Trump: 12/1
Cruz-Cruz: 25/1
Cruz-Rubio: 50/1

Rubio-Trump: 100/1
Rubio-Cruz: 150/1
Rubio-Rubio: 200/1

Bush-Trump: 250/1
Bush-Cruz: 350/1
Bush-Rubio: 350/1
Bush-Bush: 300/1

Kasich-Trump: 1,000/1
Kasich-Cruz: 1,000/1
Kasich-Kasich: 2,500/1

Carson-Carson: 8,000/1

FIELD: 100/1

Odds that _____ wins the Nevada caucus and _____ wins the South Carolina primary (DEM):
Clinton-Clinton: 3/2
Clinton-Sanders: 17/1
Sanders-Clinton: 8/3
Sanders-Sanders: 3/1

Odds that _____  wins the Nevada caucus (DEM) and _____  wins the South Carolina primary (GOP) on Feb. 20:
Clinton-Trump: 5/2
Clinton-Cruz: 4/1
Clinton-Rubio: 12/1
Clinton-Bush: 50/1
Clinton-Kasich: 80/1

Sanders-Trump: 5/2
Sanders-Cruz: 20/1
Sanders-Rubio: 30/1
Sanders-Bush: 80/1
Sanders-Kasich: 150/1

Odds to drop out of the race or suspend candidacy between Nevada (Feb. 20) and Super Tuesday (March 1):
Carson: 4/5
Kasich: 5/4
FIELD: 50/1

Odds to win the Republican nomination:
Trump: 3/2
Cruz: 5/1
Rubio: 5/1
Bush: 6/1
Kasich: 30/1
Carson: 50/1
FIELD: 30/1

Odds to win the Democratic nomination:
Clinton: 2/9
Sanders: 7/1
FIELD: 13/1

Odds on which party will win the 2016 Presidential election:
Democrat: 8/13
Republican: 3/2
Independent: 10/1

(Photo credit: Mike Licht (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode].)