NFL Public Betting Trends – Latest Bet & Money Percentages for Divisional Round

NFL public betting splits above are updated hourly; the data presented in the public betting chart is an average of the NFL public bets and NFL public money from multiple North American and global sportsbooks that are approved by SBD.

Here is what we’re seeing from the money bet on the Divisional Round of the 2024-25 NFL season:

• The public’s favorite bet of the Divisional Round is Lions -9. Detroit is hosting Washington in the second game of the weekend, and are getting 75% of the ATS money wagered on the matchup.
• Enough early money flowed in on Baltimore in their matchup with the Bills that the Ravens moved from underdogs to favorites as of Monday morning. Sportsbooks were able even out the money bet against the spread in this matchup after the big line swing.

Public’s NFL Betting Record

The public took losses in the first two games of the 2024-25 NFL season, as both the Ravens and Packers failed to cover as road underdogs. It didn’t get a whole lot better for the public on Sunday of Week 1, as they went 5-7-1, and then took a loss on MNF as well. The push was on the Seahawks -6, which was still available at one sportsbook when the game kicked off, though the consensus line was 6.5.

The public’s first winning week of the 2024-25 NFL season did not come until Week 4, when they went 8-7-1. Though they won more than they lost, it’s barely profitable when you consider the juice being paid on the wins.

You’re only seeing a total of 13 games graded in Week 5, and that’s because the Dolphins vs Patriots game saw the ATS money split 50-50. So, the public didn’t pick a side.

Here is how the public has fared against the spread in games where more than 75% of the money is on one side (a pick they are very confident in) at closing:

• Wild Card: 0-0
• Week 18: 2-2
• Week 17: 2-0
• Week 16: 2-0
• Week 15: 6-1
• Week 14: 1-0-1
• Week 13: 1-1-1
• Week 12: 1-0
• Week 11: 3-2
• Week 10: 2-1
• Week 9: 0-0
• Week 8: 1-2
• Week 7: 2-0
• Week 6: 2-0
• Week 5: 0-1
• Week 4: 2-2
• Week 3: 0-0
• Week 2: 2-4
• Week 1: 1-2
• 2024-25 Overall: 28-16-2
• 2023-24 Overall: 32-28-2

Here are some quick stats looking back to the public’s 2023-24 (last year) record against the spread:

• Had an unbelievable 13-3 record against the spread in Week 1, which was also the public’s best week of the season
• Worst week was Week 9 (3-9 ATS)
• The public had winning weeks in five of the first seven weeks
• Lost money in five of the final six weeks of the season
• The public turned it around in the playoffs, though, going 10-3 ATS

What Are NFL Betting Trends?

Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together NFL betting percentages based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total. This data can help inform your decisions on any NFL betting apps you’re wagering with.

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What are Money Percentages?

In my opinion, the money percentage is the more important of the two NFL public betting percentages. You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.

The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.

The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.

What Are Bet Percentages?

Though I don’t value betting percentages as much as money percentages, they still vital in helping to paint the full picture of NFL public betting. Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.

To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.

This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.

How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?

As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.

For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.

A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.

This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.

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NFL Public Betting Trends FAQ

Is it better to bet against the public in NFL?

The answer changes from season to season. In 2021, betting against the public resulted in a winning record (140-137-4) but because of the juice (usually -110) it was not profitable. With a standard -110 vig, bettors need to win 52.4% of their wagers to make a profit. Last year, betting against the public only resulted in a 47.1% win rate.

What percentage of NFL favorites cover the spread?

NFL favorites only covered the spread 51.3% of the time.

What is the biggest trend in NFL betting?

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