Updated Home Run Derby Odds After Christian Yelich Pulls Out

• Christian Yelich leads all of Major League Baseball with 31 home runs
• Josh Bell is now the favorite to win the Home Run Derby
• Matt Chapman will replace Yelich at the event tonight

The 2019 Home Run Derby is on tap for tonight but a late piece of news will reshape the contest. Milwaukee Brewers’ slugger Christian Yelich has pulled out and will be replaced by Oakland A’s third-baseman Matt Chapman. Is there any value on the board with Chapman or is someone else a better bet?

2019 Home Run Derby Odds

Odds taken 07/08/19.

Yelich Pulls out Due to Back Injury

The Home Run Derby suffered a big loss on Monday when Yelich pulled out. He’s dealing with a back injury and decided to skip it. At this point, we don’t know if he’ll miss the All-Star Game too. It’s a big blow as Yelich leads the Majors with 31 home runs. He was among the favorites to win the Derby prior to pulling out.

Chapman Steps In

Chapman is in the midst of an excellent season where he’s already clubbed 21 home runs. His breakout came last year when he posted an 8.2 WAR and hit 24 home runs in 145 games; he’s clearly going to surpass that this year.

He’s been fairly consistent month-to-month this season, clubbing seven home runs in April, seven in May and six in June. Over the last 30 days, he has a .912 OPS and .546 slugging percentage. However, it’s worth noting that over the last four years, he has just one home run in 26 at-bats at Progressive Field, where the Home Run Derby will take place.

What’s the Best Bet?

To be honest, the Home Run Derby is mostly a crap shoot. We have four players on the board at +550 or shorter, and four others at +800 or longer. I’m willing to take a flier with a couple of players, one from each category.

From the favorites, I’ll bet on Pete Alonso. A lot of people like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but he’s only hit eight home runs on the season. Of course, this is not an in-game situation but he’s only hit one home run in the last 30 days. That concerns me when betting him here. Alonso has ten in that same span.

As for the long shots category, I’ll take a flier on Alex Bregman at +800. The Astros’ stud was in the Home Run Derby last year, so experience could be on his side. He’s been here before. He hit a healthy 15 home runs in the first round last year but was just outdone by Kyle Schwarber (16), who was the eventual runner-up.

While he’s only hit two home runs in 49 at-bats at Progressive Field over the last three seasons, he has hit four doubles and a couple of triples, so he’s done fine. I’ll take fliers on him and Alonso to win the Derby tonight.