Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Zverev Odds & Preview: US Open Men’s Singles Semifinals

• No. 20 Pablo Carreno Busta will face No. 5 Alex Zverev in the 2020 US Open semifinals
• These two have only squared off once and Zverev won in straight sets
• Carreno Busta has had an easy path to the semis, facing two unseeded players and a wild card

Nothing about the 2020 calendar year has been normal and the US Open is sticking to the theme. For the first time in 64 grand slams, we won’t see the names Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal in the semis but Pablo Carreno Busta and Alex Zverev are in the final four. Zverev is favored to win on Thursday but is he the best bet here? Let’s take a closer look.

Carreno Busta vs Zverev Odds

Odds as of September 9th

Carreno Busta Had a Very Easy Path to Semis

Carreno Busta is the No. 20 seed at the US Open and while he’s no slouch, it’s definitely surprising to see him in the semis. He’s been to the US Open semis just once before (in 2017) but similar to that year, he has had a very easy path. In 2017, he faced four qualifiers in a row before facing No. 29 Diego Schwartzman in the quarters.

Taking a look at his path this year, he really hasn’t had to sweat that much. To date, he’s faced two unseeded players, a wild card, got a fluke with No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s disqualification and then had to go five sets just to survive No. 12 Denis Shapovalov. While the semifinal appearance looks great on paper, take it with a grain of salt given the competition so far.

Zverev Hasn’t Really Faced Anyone Too Challenging Either

Zverev is in the midst of a good season as he made it to the semis at the 2020 Australian Open and has now done the same at the US Open. However, it’s hard to tell whether he’s really growing as a player or if he’s simply had an easy path with no Federer, Nadal or Djokovic to knock him out (he’s 5-12 against them).

Zverev only had to face one seeded player prior to the quarters – No. 32 Adrian Mannarino – but Zverev still had his fair share of struggles along the way. He needed four sets in each of his first three matches. He also needed four very tight sets to get by No. 27 Borna Coric in the quarters (two of the sets needed tiebreakers).

This is a guy who was only 13-7 on the hard courts last season and usually specializes on clay, so it’s hard to say if he’s finally meeting the immense potential many thought he had or if he’s just gotten by through an easy draw. The good news for him is he probably doesn’t have to answer that question with another relatively easy opponent in front of him.

Carreno Busta vs Zverev Statistical Comparison

Zverev Has the Upper Hand

It feels like we’d get a more entertaining match on clay than on the hard courts. Carreno Busta is a patient player who has good court coverage and Zverev does well on clay too, so that would make for an intriguing showdown. On the hard courts, it feels like Zverev will have a clear edge.

Zverev has a big first serve and when he’s losing, it’s usually because he’s either double-faulting or it’s going astray. He’s been on-point at the US Open, drilling 69% of his first serves, which is the best mark of any male player who has played at least three matches.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-H4SPZnEP4

Carreno Busta will try to drag him into long rallies where Zverev might get impatient and make mistakes, but given what we’ve seen from Zverev so far, it seems unlikely that will work. These two have squared off head-to-head once before and Zverev won rather easily, topping Carreno Busta 7-6, 6-2 at the 2018 Miami Masters. This match will probably last four sets but Zverev is the better bet here.