Rockets vs Nuggets Odds and Picks

• The Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets matchup on December 28th at 9:00pm EST
• Both are looking for their first wins of the season after season opening last second losses
• Get the latest odds, betting preview and picks below

The Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets have not started their season as they would have hoped. It’s been consecutive losses for Denver, while Houston fell to a dramatic late defeat to the Blazers despite a 44-point, 17-assist outing from James Harden.

Missing DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Eric Gordon through COVID-19 protocol, the Rockets are 7.5-point underdogs for this Monday evening headliner. Denver are near full-strength – JaMychal Green is their only rotation player set to miss out. The former Clipper is dealing with a calf strain.

Rockets vs Nuggets Odds

Odds taken Dec 28th from FanDuel.

The Harden Challenge

James Harden admitted he wasn’t in peak condition. That didn’t stop him dropping 44 on Portland and so nearly carrying a depleted Houston team to a win. Slowing his scoring and playmaking down is always a priority, but that is amplified in the absence of John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins.

Harden and Christian Wood took 44 of Houston’s 88 field goal attempts in their belated season opener – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that at an even higher mark on Monday.

The Harden and Wood two-man game lived up to its preseason billing. Wood’s an excellent finisher rolling to the rim, and he can stretch defenses with his three-point range. Wood’s screens will look to force Nikola Jokic to switch onto Harden. Gary Harris is likely to have the unenviable job of guarding the former MVP – if he gets into foul trouble (Harden shot 16 free throws in the season opener), Will Barton will take the assignment.

Denver has historically been one of the most aggressive teams defending Harden, trapping high on pick and rolls and pressuring him full-court. He averaged under 30 points per game in his three matchups with the Nuggets last season, well below his 34.3 season average.

The Nuggets will look to make Wood beat them. He’s good enough to do so, but a lot will come down to hitting shots.

Perimeter Shooting

Outside of Harden, the Rockets were cold from three against Portland. It was the difference between a win and a loss. Denver, in a small sample, is bottom-third in the league in three-point makes, opponent three-point attempts and opponent three-point shooting percentage. It’s reductive to say NBA games are always decided by who shoots best from deep, but it’s an especially major factor in this one.

Gary Harris is yet to make a trey in 2020-21. Jamal Murray is four-for-16. The Nuggets’ offense is varied and talented enough to play through a poor shooting streak, though Houston should be a good opponent to get hot against. They have got markedly worse at defending the perimeter with Gordon sidelined and Robert Covington traded. With the defensive attention on Jokic inside and collapsing on Murray’s drives, the Nuggets need to make their open looks.

The same goes for Houston. Harden could have had more than his 17 assists. Non-Harden Rockets shot five-for-22 from deep on Boxing Day.

Betting Angle

The Nuggets’ slow pace is the only thing to put us off betting the over. They’re 29th in pace on the young season, the same rank they held in 2019-20.

Defensively, though, they have been poor in their opening two games. Mike Malone is asking a lot of Harris in this matchup – any of Denver’s other starters will be humiliated if left to guard Harden.

Houston is more predictable than ever. It’s going to be a lot of Wood and Harden, but that doesn’t mean Denver can stop it. Wood for over 34.5 points, rebounds and assists is a nice side bet.

Take the over on this one. Harden and Wood will put up numbers, and this could be the perfect game for Denver to find some rhythm on offense.

Pick: Over 223.5 points (-110)