Australian Open Men’s Singles Day 1 Odds and Picks

• The Australian Open is finally ready to begin
• The first tennis major of the year takes place after a three-week delay
• Read below to find out which of the 64 first-round matches provides great betting value

Better late than never.

Last year the Australian Open went off without issues since COVID-19 didn’t become a global problem until after Novak Djokovic won for his record eighth time Down Under. This year the pandemic forced a three-week delay, so players could quarantine.

While the final matches of the tournament get the most coverage, the best betting often is at the start. With more opportunity comes the ability to be choosy. Where can we find value?

Let’s look at some of the first round odds in Melbourne and consider where we might want to invest.

2021 Australian Open First Round Odds

All odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 6th

Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner

The first round of major tournaments provides a lot of things. We get a first glimpse at up-and-comers, former stars trying to reclaim their glory, and sometimes evenly matched, good-not-great players provide memorable duals. Shapovalov and Sinner is something different.

Shapovalov is a 21-year-old Canadian who was born in Israel and is ranked number 12 in the world. He is more than a youngster with potential, he is an emerging star.

Sinner is the only teenager ranked in the Top 100. At number 36, the 19-year-old Italian who lives in Monaco won a tournament last year and became the youngest French Open quarterfinalist since Novak Djokovic in 2006.

This is the first-ever meeting between these two players, who seemingly have endless potential.

Though Sharpovalov is more accomplished at this juncture, he isn’t playing as well as Sinner.

Sharpovalov was mediocre over the final couple months last year, and while the competition has been fierce, has lost his two matches this year to Djokovic and Alexander Zverev.

Meanwhile, Sinner closed 2020 winning in Bulgaria, and appears to have held that form into this year.

Long-term we like both players a great deal. In the opening round in Melbourne we’ll take +120 with Sinner.

Casper Ruud vs Jordan Thompson

There is a lot to like about 22-year-old Norwegian Casper Ruud. Ranked in the Top 30, he is the first from his country to ever win an ATP title. That said, his recent form is ho-hum.

Jordan Thompson is a 26-year-old Aussie who has won a match at the Australian Open in back-to-back years and three times in the last four tourneys. Ranked 52nd in the world, he reached the fourth round at the U.S. Open last year.

Ruud certainly has a bright future but after the French Open last year he lost his first match at three straight tournaments. He began this year falling to Jiri Vesely in three sets in Melbourne. Though Ruud is a smooth player, he doesn’t have a ton of power, and that makes him vulnerable.

Thompson didn’t go out easily in Australia last year. Fabio Fognini needed four hours and five sets to eliminate him. That said, he went just 11-12 in 2020, and while he is 3-1 this year, the competition has been weak.

Ruud is the play here based simply on talent. If he was playing his best, or facing someone somewhat lesser known or established, the odds would be lopsided. Value is present when you can get the clearly better player and only lay -115.

Novak Djokovic vs Jeremy Chardy

The top ranked player in the world is 75-8 all time at the Australian Open. He has won the event eight times, including the last two years.

Djokovic is 2-0 this year after an incredible 2020. His only loss before November was when he was disqualified in the U.S. Open. He lost twice indoors in London against Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem late in the year.

Aside from reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals in 2013, Chardy has never been past the fourth round at a major. He is 11-12 all time in the Australian Open and was eliminated in the first round last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TWzoWPbYbI

Djokovic is 13-0 all time against Chardy. The last four victories, and nine total have been in straight sets.

In last year’s Aussie Open Djokovic dropped one set before the Final. Two years ago he lost two sets during the event. There is little reason this should be competitive. Djokovic to sweep is -590. Instead let’s go with Novak -10.5 games at +115. It doesn’t leave a lot of room for error, but 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 is very much within reason.