Baylor vs Gonzaga Odds (Updated)
| Team | Moneyline | Spread at DraftKings | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | +163 | +4.5 (-108) | O 159.5 (-108) |
| Gonzaga | -200 | -44.5 (-112) | U 159.5 (-112) |
Odds as of 11:04 am ET, April 5th, 2021.
Gonzaga’s Road to the Title Game
Mark Few’s Bulldogs were basically flawless through their first 30 games of the season. They didn’t cover every spread, but it’s hard to crush the spread when a team is laying 20-plus points on a nightly basis.
Gonzaga won 29 of its first 30 games by double digits, including a 12-point win over Kansas, an 11 point win over Iowa, and a 23-point win over Virginia, all on neutral courts. BYU, the only other WCC team to make the NCAA Tournament, went 0-3 against Gonzaga with a 12.7-point average margin of defeat.
The Bulldogs first four tournament games were – or at least looked – comically easy. After nearly doubling up #16 Norfolk State (98-55), they breezed through three Power Six teams: #8 Oklahoma (87-71), #5 Creighton (83-65), and #6 USC (85-66) which was rated the sixth-best team in the country by KenPom at the time of the game.
Speaking of KenPom, Gonzaga’s offense is – for the third straight season – rated first out of 357 Division I teams, averaging 127.2 points per 100 possessions.
Gonzaga needed every ounce of it in their Final Four win over UCLA – a 93-90 victory salvaged by a near-half-court buzzer beater from freshman sensation Jalen Suggs.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the UCLA game is that Gonzaga can be lit up by good offenses. UCLA sat 11th in offensive efficiency. USC – which sat 13th – was stifled thanks largely to going an ice-cold 4-15 from beyond the arc. But looking back to the regular season, the best offense Gonzaga faced (Iowa) racked up 88 points. It’s just that Gonzaga’s own offense was better.
The Zags interior defenders – mostly Drew Timme – had no answer for National Player of the Year Luka Garza (30 points on 13-18 shooting). Similarly, Timme was victimized routinely by UCLA’s frontcourt, specifically Johnny Juzang (29 points on 12-18 shooting).
Timme has been all-world at the offensive end – regular season and tournament. Gonzaga’s leading scorer (19.2 PPG) had a team-high 25 against UCLA and has scored at least 22 in the last four games – leading the Zags in each one. (He only had ten in the blowout over Norfolk State, a game that was more about staying healthy and rested.)
Corey Kispert (18.8 PPG) hasn’t had the best tournament. A lights-out 44.5% three-point shooter is under 40% in the tournament and just 5-18 (27.7%) in the last two games. Point guard Suggs, the highest-rated recruit in school history, has played beyond his years. The soon-to-be lottery pick is averaging 14,8 points and 5.8 assists in the past four games while shooting a solid 48.9% from the field.
Baylor Is Coming in Hot
Unlike Gonzaga, Baylor has been getting better and better over the last few games. After blowing out #16 Hartford (79-55) and outpacing #9 Wisconsin (76-63), the Bears found themselves in a dogfight with #5 Villanova.
Down five at halftime, Baylor was still down six with about 13 minutes to play. Then the Bears went on a 14-2 run, waved goodbye to the Wildcats, and kept them momentum going through the next 80 minutes of action.
In the Elite Eight against #3 Arkansas, Baylor raced out to a 15-point lead late in the first half. While the Razorbacks appropriately clawed their was back into the game in the second half – getting within four with seven minutes to go – the Bears kept their composure down the stretch. Sharpshooting Adam Flagler (an 86% FT shooter) scored Baylor’s final seven points, including going 4-4 from the stripe.
Ultimately Baylor covered the 7.5-point spread.
