Ugo Humbert vs Andrey Rublev Odds & Prediction – Halle Open Finals
- No. 4 seed Andrey Rublev seeks his first career grass-court title against unseeded Ugo Humbert in Halle
- The match will take place at 2 p.m. in Germany (8 a.m. ET) in warm, humid conditions
- Rublev’s record in ATP 500 tournaments over the last year is nearly unbeatable. We break down his chances
Andrey Rublev has lost just one set in four matches in Halle this week, and is the favorite against the rather overworked Ugo Humbert.
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Ugo Humbert vs Andrey Rublev Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert (FRA) | +2.5 (-107) | +175 | O 24.5 (+100) |
| [4] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | -2.5 (-117) | -220 | U 24.5 (-124) |
Odds as of June 19 at DraftKings.
Humbert, a 22-year-old French lefty, has needed to go the distance in all four of his victories. Two of them (against Sam Querrey in the first round and Félix Auger-Aliassime in the semis) required third-set tiebreaks.
In three of the four matches – the latter three – he has won the first set.
How much energy he’ll have left for the final is an open question. Although you’d have thought he’d run out of steam against Auger-Aliassime Saturday. And yet, he played an inspired tiebreak as the match neared 2 1/2 hours.
Humbert has averaged two hours, 20 minutes per match on court. Rublev has spent nearly an hour less winning each of his matches, an average of one hour, 28 minutes.
Rublev the King of the 500s
If Rublev hasn’t yet made the massive breakthrough at the Grand Slam level or even the ATP 1000 level (although he did make the Monte Carlo final in April), he’s the undisputed king of the 500 -level tournaments these days.
World No. 7 @AndreyRublev97 will play for his 5th ATP 500 championship of the last 9 months at @ATPHalle on Sunday.
Rublev is 29-2 at ATP 500 events since September with titles at 2020 @HamburgOpen, 2020 St. Petersburg, 2020 @ErsteBankOpen and 2021 @ABNAMROWTT. #NOVENTIOPEN
— ATP Media Info (@ATPMediaInfo) June 19, 2021
The Russian went just 2-3 during the last grass season in 2019. He lost to a British kid playing U.S. college tennis, who was ranked No. 473, in qualifying at Eastbourne. And he got just eight games from big-serving Sam Querrey in a three-set loss in the second round at Wimbledon.
But that was before all the winning; Rublev was ranked about No. 80 at the time. This week, he stands at a career high No. 7.
Ugo Humbert vs Andrey Rublev Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | St. Petersburg (R16) | Indoor Hard | 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 | Rublev |
| 2019 | Monte Carlo (Qualifying) | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 6-4 | Rublev |
Rublev’s Just Getting Grass-Started
The Russian doesn’t even think he’s good on grass yet. So imagine what might happen when he does feel comfortable.
In his first two career trips to Wimbledon, he didn’t even make it past the second round of qualifying.
We can now add grass to the list of @AndreyRublev97's successful surfaces, so that's…all of them. 😅
The Russian is just one win away from being a grass-court champion.#NOVENTIOPEN2021https://t.co/3qTyaj4dNs
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) June 19, 2021
In his third, he did qualify (in 2017). He played back-to-back five-setters, losing the second one. So, thus far, he’s never even put back-to-back wins together in the main draw at Wimbledon. In fact, until this week he’d only done that once on grass in his life – all the way back in 2017 in Stuttgart, when he was still a teenager.
Ugo Humbert vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head
| 22 (June 26, 1998) | Age | 23 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
| Metz, France | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-2 | Height | 6-2 |
| 2 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 8 |
| No. 29 (March 15, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 7 (April 19, 2021) |
| No. 31 | Current Ranking | No. 7 |
| $2,148,616 | Career Prize Money | $8,272,610 |
| 13-13 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 33-9 |
| 0 | Career Head to Head | 2 |
“I Can Do Something Big”
After he lost to Humbert in the second round, No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev said he considered Humbert a player who is very dangerous on grass.
Humbert concurs.
“Grass is maybe my favourite surface because I‘m very relaxed, I have a good flat backhand, and when I hit it crosscourt it’s really dangerous,” he said after defeating Auger-Aliassime. “I think I’m one of the best players on the grass. I can do something big.”
Being able to get the lefty slice serve out side to Rublev’s (relatively) weaker two-handed backhand is going to be a key for him on Sunday.
If Form Holds They’ll Go the Distance
After four three-setters, you’d expect Humbert to keep that pattern going. And the one career main-draw clash between Rublev and Humbert also went the distance, with Rublev prevailing 7-5 in the third set.
Humbert is at +150 to take the first set, something he did three times this week, and in his previous meeting against Rublev.
The Russian’s record in 500-level finals tells you he should prevail in this one. But it might well take him three sets to do it (+280).
Best Bet: Over 2.5 sets (+132)
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
