Dodgers vs Blue Jays Expert Picks, Player Props & Betting Lines (Game 6)

• With their season on the line, the Los Angeles Dodgers turn to Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 6
• The Toronto Blue Jays start Kevin Gausman as they look to clinch their first World Series since 1993
• Below, see my Dodgers vs Blue Jays expert picks and player props to bet in Game 6, plus the updated odds and betting splits

Heavy favorites before the series started, the Los Angeles Dodgers (104-73, 46-40 away) find themselves trailing 3-2 and on the brink of elimination as they visit the Toronto Blue Jays (103-74, 59-30 home) in Game 6 of the World Series at Rogers Centre on Friday night (8:00 pm ET).

A marquee pitching matchup pits LA’s Yoshinobu Yamamoto against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman as the Jays look to close out the series. Despite Toronto outscoring Los Angeles 29-18 in the first five games, the Dodgers are moneyline favorites on Friday night, just as they have been in each game of the series to date.

Below, I have set out my Dodgers vs Blue Jays expert picks, the main player props, the batter-vs-starting pitcher history, and the updated Game 6 odds and betting splits.

Jump to: PICKS || PLAYER PROPS || BvP STATS || ODDS & BETTING SPLITS

LA Dodgers vs TOR Blue Jays Expert Picks & Predictions

I have four picks for LAD/TOR Game 6: moneyline, total, and a pair of player props. My favorite Dodgers/Blue Jays pick is the Toronto moneyline at absurd +123 odds. I’d be picking the Blue Jays even if George Springer (side) wasn’t expected to return tonight, but all indications are that the right fielder will be back in the lineup after missing Games 4 and 5.

Moneyline Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (+123)

If Toronto manager John Schneider hadn’t emptied his bench fairly early in the 18-inning Game 3 marathon, Toronto might already be planning the World Series parade. The Blue Jays have been the better team for the vast majority of this series. Shohei Ohtani’s heroics and an out-of-nowhere pristine bullpen performance are about the things that’s kept LA’s season alive.

Yamamoto is the guy Roberts would want on the mound, but don’t be so certain he’s going to replicate his complete-game masterpiece from Game 2 (one run on four hits and no walks with eight strikeouts). That was the first time the vast majority of the Toronto lineup had ever faced him (only Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ty France had an AB against Yamamoto prior to Game 2). Unfamiliarity typically plays in the pitcher’s advantage.

Yamamoto is the rare breed that can throw six different pitches. His main four-pitch arsenal (four-seam FB, splitter, curve, and cutter) are complemented by the occasional sinker and slider. The average velo ranges from about 96 mph on his fastball to just 77 mph on his curve. For a hitter, that’s a ludicrous amount of variety, both in terms of movement and speed.

I’m not saying the Jays are going to have an easy time of it the second time around, but they’re inevitably going to be more comfortable with Yamamoto’s offerings. The last time Yamamoto faced the same lineup in such close succession, the second go around was less successful (though still pretty good). On Sep. 12, he annihilated the Giants, going 7.0 IP while allowing just one run on one hit and a walk with ten strikeouts. Six days later, he went just 5.1 IP while allowing one hit and six walks with seven Ks. That’s still an awfully good outing, but the San Francisco hitters managed a .318 OBP the second time around compared to .087 in the first game.

Patience is one of the best traits of the Toronto lineup as a whole. Yet they didn’t draw a single walk in Game 2. If the Jays don’t go chasing out of the zone tonight, Yamamoto could wind up with a much different stat line.

The price on the Jays (as long as +123) is ludicrous. They have the better lineup, top to bottom, at the moment. Gausman isn’t a big step down from Yamamoto (if he’s a step down at all). And Toronto has a much better bullpen.

The Blue Jays should be home favorites.

Run Total Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (-110)

In a World Series elimination game, the focus inevitably lands on the starting pitchers, and this matchup is an absolute gem. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been the Dodgers’ savior this postseason, posting a pristine 1.57 ERA and looking every bit the ace they signed him to be. The Blue Jays’ lineup has barely touched him, hitting a collective .148 in one prior meeting. On the other side, Kevin Gausman gets the ball at home, where he feeds off the electric atmosphere. While some Dodgers hitters like Mookie Betts (.837 OPS in 54 ABs), Max Muncy (.1481 OPS in 21 ABs), and Will Smith (1.027 OPS in 13 ABs) have had their share of success against him in the past, he has largely neutralized Shohei Ohtani (2-for-15 with 1 HR), Freddie Freeman (2-for-12, 1 HR), Teoscar Hernandez (3-for-19, 0 XBH), and Kike Hernandez (1-for-16, 0 XBH).

The bullpen struggles, particularly on the LAD side, give me some pause here, but both relief corps got a rest day yesterday, and Dodger manager Dave Roberts will only use arms he’s confident in during an elimination game, which could mean we see Game 3 starter Tyler Glasnow at some point tonight.

Pitcher Prop Pick: Gausman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)

Gausman’s strikeout line is set at 4.5 with the over juiced at -160. He’s only exceeded 4.5 twice in four playoff starts, but he racked up six in 6.2 IP in Game 2.

He has a 28.3% K-rate against the Dodger lineup as a whole and was much better at missing bats at home in the regular season (26% K-rate at home vs 22.2% on the road).

Batter Prop Pick: Clement Over 0.5 Total Bases (-170)

My final pick for Game 6 is Ernie Clement to go over 0.5 total bases (in other words, record at least one hit). Strangely, Fanatics is offering over 0.5 total bases at -170, which is a better price than you’ll find on over 0.5 hits at any other book. But that’s just semantics.

Clement has been red-hot all postseason, hitting .391 with a .928 OPS. He had one of Toronto’s four hits against Yamamoto in Game 2, and was one of just two Toronto starters who didn’t strikeout against Yamamoto. He’s hit safely in every game of the series and 11 straight, overall, dating back to the ALCS. This -170 price carries just a 62.96% implied probability. That should be considerably higher for a player with Clement’s bat-to-ball skills who’s also riding an insane hot streak.

TOR vs LAD Game 6 Player Props

MLB props as of October 31 at BetMGM.

The prop market heavily favors another solid outing from Yamamoto. His earned-runs line is set at 2.5 with heavy juice on the under (-182), and his outs prop of 18.5 is a full inning higher than Gausman’s line of 15.5. This reflects both Yamamoto’s postseason dominance and the Blue Jays’ collective struggles against him in their limited exposure. For Gausman, the strikeout line of 4.5 seems low, but it accounts for a patient Dodger lineup that has had some success against him. The heavy juice on over 1.5 walks (-186) suggests oddsmakers anticipate him nibbling against the dangerous LA bats.

BvP History: Yamamoto vs Gausman

Los Angeles Dodgers Career Statistics vs Kevin Gausman

Altogether, the Dodger hitters have a .228 average and .741 OPS against Gausman in 180 ABs. Muncy (four) and Betts (three) have combined for seven of the ten home runs. Freeman, Ohtani, and Smith have the others

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto

The Jays hitters have just a .152 average and .358 OPS against Yamamoto after his Game 2 gem. George Springer recorded the only extra-base hit of the night. As mentioned, he’s expected to return tonight from some sort of core/oblique/side injury that kept him out of both Games 4 and 5.

Game 6 Blue Jays vs Dodgers Odds & Lines

For the sixth straight time in this series, the Los Angeles Dodgers are moneyline favorites. The best Dodger moneyline currently is -128 at ESPN Bet. The best Blue Jay moneyline is +120 at BetMGM and bet365.

The total still sits at 7.5 runs with roughly even odds both ways. Over bettors can get -105 at FanDuel. Under bettors won’t find better than -110 (Caesars, BetMGM, bet365).

Odds commentary as of 1:50 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price if the MLB odds move before first pitch.

Public Betting Splits for Dodgers vs Blue Jays Game 6

Friday’s MLB public betting splits reveal a fascinating divide in market sentiment. While the majority of runline bettors (78%) are backing the Dodgers to win by at least two runs, the moneyline action tells a different story.

The Blue Jays are attracting 51% of the bets and an even more significant 62% of the total money wagered, suggesting that larger, sharper bets are on the home underdog.

For the total, a slight majority of tickets (56%) are on the over, but the money is evenly split, with 50% of O/U total on each side.

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