Cincinnati vs Kansas Prediction, Odds, Props & How to Watch (Sep. 27)

• Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite over Cincinnati in Big 12 action on Saturday
• The Bearcats’ offensive line hasn’t allowed a single sack through three games
• See below for my Cincinnati vs Kansas prediction and pick, plus the latest odds and player props

Cincinnati (2-1) travels to Lawrence for their Big 12 opener against Kansas (3-1) on Saturday afternoon. Both teams are riding high after blowout wins, with the Bearcats crushing Northwestern State 70-0 and the Jayhawks hammering West Virginia 41-10.

The line opened at Kansas -6 but has dropped to -4.5 in the latest college football odds, with Cincinnati +5.5 still available at some shops. That movement tells you where the smart money went. I’m backing the road dog to cover and the total to sail over.

Cincinnati vs Kansas Prediction and Pick

• Cincinnati +5.5 (playable to +3.5)
• Over 56.5 (-108)

I bet the Bearcats at +5.5, but am comfortable betting this down to +3.5. Cincinnati’s offensive line is the real story here. They haven’t allowed a sack all season through 72 pass attempts. Only five teams nationally have that stat line.

That protection has allowed Brendan Sorsby to thrive. Since struggling against Nebraska in the opener, he’s completing 82% of his passes over the last two games with eight touchdowns and zero picks. Against Northwestern State, Sorsby went a perfect 15-for-15 with five touchdown passes in the first quarter alone.

Kansas has major issues in the secondary this week. Safety Devin Dye sits the first half due to targeting, while Mason Ellis is doubtful with an injury. Missing both starting safeties against an offense averaging 8.38 yards per play (third nationally) is a recipe for trouble.

Cincinnati Offensive Stats

The revenge factor matters too. Kansas destroyed Cincinnati 49-16 last November, but that was Scott Satterfield’s first team. This Bearcats squad is completely different. They’ve had two weeks to prepare coming off a bye, and they’re hungry to prove they belong.

Cincinnati’s run defense has been rock solid, allowing just 92 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. The Bearcats’ defensive line has 9 sacks and 12 tackles for loss through three games. If they can slow Kansas’s ground game, it forces Jalon Daniels to win with his arm.

Daniels has been excellent with 12 touchdown passes and just two picks while averaging 6.1 yards per carry on the ground. But he’ll be without running back Daniel Hishaw Jr., who’s doubtful with an injury. That’s a significant loss for a Kansas offense that’s rushed for over 200 yards in three of their last four games.

Cincinnati’s receiving corps features All-Big 12 tight end Joe Royer, who broke Travis Kelce’s single-season record at Cincinnati last year with 50 catches. Kansas has allowed touchdowns on 57.14% of opposing red zone trips, ranking just 64th nationally.

Both teams play fast and rank near the bottom in time of possession. Cincinnati actually has the worst TOP in the country. That pace sets up perfectly for a shootout where the underdog stays within the number.

Cincinnati vs Kansas Odds

The line movement from Kansas -6 to -4.5 shows where the sharp action landed. Some books still have Cincinnati +5.5 if you shop around. Per the college football team trends, Kansas has cashed the first-half over in 10 of their last 12 games.

Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 first quarters, showing they come out strong. The Bearcats are also 2-1 ATS this season despite that tough loss to Nebraska in the opener.

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Cincinnati vs Kansas Player Props

Sorsby’s passing yards line sits 42 yards below his season average of 254.7. With Kansas missing defensive backs, he should clear this easily. Daniels has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of four games, and despite the juice, the over on his TD prop has value.

Emmanuel Henderson Jr. at plus money for a touchdown is my favorite prop. He’s Kansas’s most explosive player and gets consistent red zone touches. Getting plus odds on their top playmaker in a potential shootout is solid value.

Cincinnati vs Kansas How to Watch

Kickoff for this Big 12 showdown is set for 12pm ET at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, KS, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast calls for ideal conditions with temperatures in the low 70s and light winds.