Final Miami vs Florida State Prediction & Updated Betting Line – CFB Week 6

• #3 Miami is a 4.5-point favorite over #18 Florida State on Saturday in Week 6
• The Hurricanes opened as 6-point chalk, but the number has been moving towards the Seminoles all week
• See below for my final Miami vs Florida State prediction, plus the updated betting line

One of the biggest games on today’s college football schedule pits #3 Miami (4-0, 0-0 ACC) against #18 Florida State (3-1, 0-1 ACC). The Hurricanes enter play with a ton of hype after their perfect start, and online sportsbooks didn’t hesitate to peg them as big favorites in the college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Final Miami vs Florida State Prediction

• Florida State +4.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Miami opened as 6-point favorites, but the line is down to -4.5 after money has been coming in on the Seminoles all week. The Hurricanes have vaulted up the CFP National Championship odds in recent weeks, but this will be their biggest test.

Let’s look at who Miami has beaten. They took down a Notre Dame program that’s since lost again, and a South Florida team that, while ranked, was playing its third straight top-25 opponent. In between, the Hurricanes beat up on a lifeless Florida Gators team and a BCS opponent.

They’ve been praised for their incredible defensive play, but before we consider that unit elite, let’s see them stop a top-ranked offense like Florida State.

Florida State Offensive Stats

The Seminoles are one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, ranking top five in points and yards per game, as well as yards per play. They’ve hung 30+ points on all four opponents, and blew out #10 Alabama to start the season.

Transfer Tommy Castellanos is a threat to dominate with his arm and his legs, and plays his best when the play breaks down. He’ll be able to survive the Canes’ top-notch pass rush, making throws on the run or scrambling for big gains. Castellanos has two 78-yard rushing games on his 2025 resume already, along with 4 TD on the ground.

On the other side, Carson Beck’s collegiate career has been revitalized, and the senior is firmly in the Heisman Trophy odds conversation. Beck is completing 73.2% of his passes so far, but has yet to play away from home. Tonight we’ll be his first true road test of the season, and last year he performed significantly worse as a visitor.

Beck threw four more interceptions on the road (7) than touchdown passes (3), and his sack rate nearly doubled away from home. That led to his only two losses of the campaign while at Georgia, and also led critics to wonder if he was built to win a big game. Until he puts up a standout performance against a quality opponent on the road, I can’t possibly back the Canes in my final Miami vs Florida State prediction.

Which means I’m grabbing the points, a pick that the betting trends definitely support. Under Mike Norvell, Florida State is 7-1 against the spread as a home underdog against top-25 competition. They’ve won four of those eight games outright, and I think they’re live to win this one as well.

Miami, meanwhile, has been profitable to fade against the spread on the road. The Canes are 7-9 ATS away from home since 2022, and 1-3 against the spread as visitors versus ranked opposition.

Miami vs Florida State Closing Odds

The best place to bet the Seminoles +4.5 is over at DraftKings. They’re offering that number at -114 odds, while several other books have already moved to Miami -4, and even -3.5. Total wise, the over/under is at 54.5, with the juice shaded towards the over.

Odds as of October 4th. New customers can claim the FanDuel promo code and get a bonus to bet on Week 6 college football.

Per the college football public betting trends, the spread betting is nearly split down the middle. Florida State is garnering slightly more tickets, while Miami is taking slightly more money as of Saturday around Noon ET.