Hawaii vs Air Force Prediction, Odds & How to Watch (Sept. 27)

• Air Force is a 6.5-point favorite over Hawaii in Mountain West play on Saturday
• The Falcons’ defense has allowed 49 points in back-to-back games
• See below for my Hawaii vs Air Force prediction and pick, plus the betting odds and how to watch

It’s a classic style clash in the Mountain West as Hawaii (3-2) heads to Colorado Springs to face Air Force (1-2). The Rainbow Warriors’ pass-heavy attack will test a Falcons defense that’s been absolutely torched through three games, while Air Force’s ground game looks to control the clock at altitude.

Air Force opened as 5.5-point favorites, but the line has climbed to 6.5 in the latest college football odds. That movement suggests sharp money is backing the home team, though Hawaii has won two straight in this series. My favorite play in this matchup lands on the over, which has been money for both squads lately.

Hawaii vs Air Force Prediction and Pick

• Over 52.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Both defenses are bleeding points right now. Air Force has surrendered 49 in consecutive weeks, while Hawaii just gave up multiple fourth-quarter scores to Fresno State.

The Falcons rank dead last nationally in yards allowed per play at 9.3. That’s not a typo. They’re giving up chunk plays left and right, and now they face a Hawaii passing game that can exploit that weakness. Pofele Ashlock has been targeted consistently all season and should find space against this porous secondary.

Air Force’s offense has been the lone bright spot. Quarterback Liam Szarka is averaging 11.2 yards per attempt and just shredded Boise State for 246 passing yards and 111 on the ground. Cade Harris exploded for 177 receiving yards in that game, proving this isn’t your typical triple-option attack anymore.

Air Force Offensive Stats

Hawaii’s defense has been respectable against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. But stopping Air Force’s option attack at altitude is a different animal. The thin air will wear down the Rainbow Warriors’ front seven, especially late in the game when the Falcons typically dominate.

The bigger issue for Hawaii is turnovers. They’re sitting at minus-8 on the season, including three picks from Micah Alejado last week. The freshman quarterback has talent, but he’s been way too careless with the football. Against an opportunistic Air Force team playing at home, those mistakes will be magnified.

Still, Hawaii has proven they can hang in shootouts. They’ve been targeted 67 times in fourth quarters this season, the most in the FBS. When they’re trailing, they air it out relentlessly. With Air Force’s defense giving up 37 points per game, the Warriors should have plenty of chances to score.

The altitude factor can’t be ignored either. Hawaii traveled from sea level to 7,200 feet, and that difference shows up most in the second half. But if the Rainbow Warriors can grab an early lead and force Air Force to throw more than they’d like, this total should sail over.

Hawaii vs Air Force Odds

The line opened at Air Force -5.5 and has been bet up to -6.5, with some books even touching -7 before buyback brought it down.

The total has actually dropped from 53.5 to 52.5, which seems odd given both teams’ defensive struggles. Per the college football public betting trends, sharp money appears split on the side but united on the over.

Air Force sits at -258 on the moneyline, implying about a 69% win probability. Hawaii comes back at +210, offering decent value if you believe in the upset. The Warriors have covered in three of five games this year while Air Force is just 1-2 ATS.

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Hawaii vs Air Force How to Watch

Kickoff for this Mountain West battle is set for 4pm ET at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, CO, with FS1 providing the broadcast coverage. The forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60s, perfect football weather at altitude.