Indiana vs Maryland Prediction, Pick, Odds Week 10: Can Terps Cover 21-Point Spread?

• No. 2 Indiana is a 21-point road favorite against Maryland in Week 10 Big Ten action
• The Hoosiers rank first in FBS with a +34.5 point differential per game
• Read below for Indiana vs Maryland prediction, picks, odds, and how to watch

The second-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) roll into College Park riding high off their 56-6 demolition of UCLA. Maryland (4-3) desperately needs a signature win after dropping three straight heartbreakers by a combined 10 points.

The Week 10 college football odds have moved significantly since opening. Indiana started as 16.5-point favorites, but the line has ballooned to 21 as sharp money hammers the Hoosiers. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 50.5 despite heavy public action on the over.

Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM ET from SECU Stadium in College Park, Maryland, with CBS handling the broadcast. Let’s dive into my Indiana vs Maryland prediction for Saturday.

Indiana vs Maryland Prediction

• Spread Pick: Maryland +21 (-110)
• O/U Pick: Under 50.5 (-111)

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I’m grabbing the points with Maryland, and here’s the deal. The Terrapins have lost 25 straight against AP Top 10 opponents, but they’ve been competitive in every game this season. All three losses came by four points or less after holding fourth-quarter leads.

Indiana has dominated everyone, averaging 45.4 points per game while allowing just 10.9. But they’re facing something different here. Maryland leads the nation with 14 interceptions and four pick-sixes. Fernando Mendoza has been brilliant with 24 touchdown passes, but he has thrown three picks.

True freshman Malik Washington has exceeded expectations for Maryland. He’s thrown for at least 200 yards and a touchdown in all seven games, ranking second among FBS freshmen with 1,716 passing yards. The kid has been sacked just three times on 271 pass attempts (1.1%), showing remarkable pocket awareness.

The revenge factor can’t be ignored either. Roman Hemby returns to College Park after spending four years at Maryland, where he ranks 11th in school history with 2,347 rushing yards. He’s rushed for 513 yards this season, but facing his former team adds an emotional element that could work both ways.

Maryland’s defense has improved dramatically, allowing just 17.3 points per game after giving up 30.4 last season. True freshman Sidney Stewart leads all FBS freshmen with 5.5 sacks and 27 pressures. Fellow freshman Zahir Mathis has added 21 pressures, giving the Terps a devastating pass rush.

For my Indiana vs Maryland pick, I see the Terps keeping this within three touchdowns. Their ball-hawking defense and improved play should keep them competitive at home.

Indiana vs Maryland Odds

Indiana opened as 16.5-point favorites before sharp action pushed the line to 21. The total dropped from 51.5 to 50.5 as bettors respect both defenses. Public money is all over Indiana, with 70.63% of tickets on the Hoosiers, but 56.56% of the money has come in on Maryland.

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Odds as of November 1. Check out the latest CFP Bracket projections to see where Indiana stands. Old Line State bettors can grab a Bet365 bonus code to wager on this game.

Hoosiers’ Historic Dominance

Indiana’s transformation under Curt Cignetti has been remarkable. The Hoosiers entered 2024 with a .419 all-time winning percentage, worst among current power conference teams. Now they’re 19-2 under Cignetti, posting a .905 winning percentage that ranks third-best among power conference schools since 2024.

The offense has been unstoppable. Mendoza leads FBS with 24 passing touchdowns, matching what only Ohio State quarterbacks have done through eight games in the Big Ten since 2000. His 188.5 passer rating ranks second nationally, and he’s completing 72.9% of his passes.

Elijah Sarratt has been Mendoza’s favorite target with an FBS-high 10 receiving touchdowns. He’s scored in five straight games, the longest streak by an Indiana player since James Hardy’s nine-gamer spanning 2006-07. E.J. Williams Jr. exploded last week with 109 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The ground game features a dynamic duo. Hemby and Kaelon Black both have over 500 rushing yards, making them one of just four FBS teammate pairs to reach that mark. Indiana averages 230.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 10th nationally.

Terrapins Playing with Fire

Maryland’s record doesn’t tell the whole story. They’ve blown fourth-quarter leads in all three losses, getting outscored 61-24 in final periods this season. That’s a -37 differential, second-worst among power conference teams.

But the defense has been opportunistic. Their 14 interceptions rank second nationally, and they lead FBS with four pick-sixes after recording just one in the previous six seasons combined. The +11 turnover margin ranks second in the country.

Washington has spread the ball around effectively, with five different players catching at least 20 passes. Octavian Smith Jr. leads with 27 receptions for 378 yards, though he hasn’t found the end zone yet. The rushing attack struggles though, averaging just 103.3 yards per game with DeJuan Williams managing only 3.5 yards per carry.

The freshman factor gives Maryland hope. Stewart and Mathis have combined for 48 pressures, creating havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Washington’s consistency and pocket presence have been impressive for a true freshman making his first seven starts.

How to Watch Indiana vs Maryland

This Big Ten showdown kicks off at 3:30 PM ET from SECU Stadium in College Park. CBS has the call for what could be a program-defining game for both teams.

The weather looks perfect with temperatures in the mid-70s and minimal wind. Indiana has trailed for just 2:56 all season, second-best in FBS. Maryland has held a fourth-quarter lead in every game, showing they can compete with anyone.

These teams have met 13 times with Indiana holding an 8-5 edge. The Hoosiers won last year’s meeting 42-28, but Maryland had taken the previous three. This marks Indiana’s first game as a top-five team against Maryland since the series began.