LSU vs Florida Prediction, Picks & Spread for CFB Week 3

• LSU and Florida face off in their first conference game of the season
• The Gators were just upset by USF in Week 2 
• See my LSU vs Florida predictions and picks for this Saturday night SEC battle

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This Week 3 SEC showdown has a much different feel than anticipated coming into the season. That’s mainly because Florida was stunned by South Florida, failing not only to cover as 18.5-point favorites but to close out what should’ve been a comfortable win. Billy Napier’s team suddenly faces serious pressure to bounce back.

Meanwhile, LSU is rolling. After making a statement with its Week 1 win over Clemson, the Tigers followed it up with a 23-7 victory against Louisiana Tech, and now they return home to Tiger Stadium with momentum on their side.

Will LSU keep its strong start going in Baton Rouge, or can Florida get back on track? Let’s preview this matchup with my LSU vs Florida predictions and picks.

LSU vs Florida Odds

While Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t necessarily lit up the stat sheet, he’s delivered exactly what LSU has needed – wins. He opened the year with a 17-10 victory over Clemson and followed that with a 23-7 result against Louisiana Tech. Through two games, he’s thrown for 469 yards, completing 68.4% of his passes with two touchdowns and one interception.

He’s set to face a Florida defense that just surrendered 391 total yards to South Florida in one of the more baffling upsets of the young season. The Gators entered that game ranked No. 13, only to fall flat. Now they’re out of the polls and catching 9.5 points in Baton Rouge. That spread opened at LSU -6.5 over the summer, while the total has dropped from 54.5 to around 49.5 across most shops.

Odds via FanDuel as of September 9 at 9:00 am ET. Check out our FanDuel review before wagering on LSU vs Florida.

LSU vs Florida Prediction

The Gators were ranked No. 13 heading into that contest and have since been unranked and moved to a 9.5-point underdog. The spread opened as low as LSU -6.5 in the summer, with the total listed as high as 54.5. Conviction in points has dwindled from bettors, considering the common number hangs a 49.5 across most shops. 

The tricky part is balancing recency bias with what’s real. No team is ever as good or as bad as it looked the week before, but Florida’s sloppy effort can’t be ignored – and LSU’s defense deserves recognition.

BREAKING: Billy Napier will call the plays the plays the rest of the season and has no intention of giving it up.

Napier’s offense scored 16 points last week vs USF. pic.twitter.com/XVVd2t68IH

— Florida Gators 🐊🔥 (@gatorsszn) September 8, 2025

Brian Kelly’s defenses have often been a liability, yet so far the Tigers have looked stout, holding Clemson to just 261 yards and Louisiana Tech to 154. That’s notable considering Tech averaged 334 yards per game last season.

That formula could spell trouble for Florida quarterback DJ Lagway. He’s been efficient, completing 74.5% of his passes for 342 yards, but has just 51 attempts through two games and hasn’t added much with his legs. His production hasn’t been poor, but against this LSU defense, it’s hard to see him doing enough to keep pace.

LSU vs Florida Pick

• Under 56.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Even with the line movement, I still see value on the under. The consensus total sits at 49.5, though a few books are hanging 50.5.

Florida will be scrambling to rebound from a letdown loss, and doing so in Death Valley is no small task. The LSU crowd will make things even tougher on DJ Lagway, who already faces the challenge of going up against a defense that looks vastly improved.

LSU’s defense gave up -0.316 EPA per play.

That’s the best single game for the Tigers in 11 years.

On the road. Against what was projected as one of the best offenses in America.

The LSU defense is back, and that makes the Tigers legitimate national title contenders. pic.twitter.com/Vz02X4B0yl

— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) August 31, 2025

On the other side, Garrett Nussmeier has been steady if unspectacular. He’ll likely be the better quarterback in this matchup, but Florida’s defense isn’t a pushover. Despite last week’s collapse, the Gators have still allowed just 16 points (all to USF) on the season, giving up 477 yards total and 4.4 yards per play.

This has all the makings of a grind-it-out SEC game. LSU should ultimately prevail behind Nussmeier’s poise and the home environment, but both teams could be in for a slog. The number has come down, but I still lean under in what should be a physical, tight contest.