Miami vs SMU Prediction, Spread and Best Bets for Saturday ACC Football Week 10

• The #10 Miami Hurricanes are 10.5-point road favorites against SMU in Week 10 ACC action
• SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings is battling through an ankle injury that limits his mobility
• Check out the Miami vs SMU prediction, spread and best bets for Saturday afternoon

Miami finally ventures outside Florida for the first time all season. The #10 Hurricanes head to Dallas for a pivotal ACC matchup against SMU that carries major implications for both teams’ playoff hopes in the CFP Playoff Bracket.

Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 am ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast.

Here is my Miami vs SMU prediction, spread analysis, and best bets for this conference showdown.

Miami vs SMU Prediction

This betting line has come down from -12.5 to -10.5, and we’re taking full advantage for our Miami vs SMU prediction. Kevin Jennings’ ankle injury transforms SMU’s entire offensive approach. The quarterback who carved up Syracuse for 285 yards and four touchdowns just three weeks ago now struggles to navigate the pocket.

Miami’s defense allows just 2.8 yards per carry, best in the nation. Now they’re facing a quarterback who can’t scramble or execute designed runs. That spells trouble when Ruben Bain Jr. leads a pass rush creating pressure on 38% of dropbacks. The junior posted a 94.7 PFF grade, ranking first among all college football players at any position.

Carson Beck bounced back from his four-interception disaster against Louisville with a clean performance against Stanford. The transfer quarterback hit 75% of his passes while working behind an offensive line that PFF ranks third nationally. That protection matters against an SMU defense built on creating havoc.

Key Offensive Stats

Third downs tell the story here. Miami converts at 46.3% while SMU manages just 35.7%. That massive gap creates sustained drives and scoring opportunities. Add Miami’s 97% red zone touchdown rate (seventh nationally) and you see why the Hurricanes capitalize on nearly every chance.

SMU’s defense does force 2.13 turnovers per game, but Beck has tightened up his ball security since Louisville. Miami’s ground attack with Mark Fletcher Jr. (552 yards, 9 TDs) keeps them on schedule and out of obvious passing situations.

I’m backing Miami -10.5 here. Yes, 68% of the handle supports SMU plus the points, but that creates value on the other side. The public sees double-digit road chalk and automatically grabs the points. Miami has covered in five of their last six as favorites for good reason.

Mario Cristobal owns an 18-7 ATS record when laying seven or more points on the road throughout his coaching career. His teams average a 20.8-point victory margin in those games, easily clearing this spread. That’s program philosophy showing up in results: physical dominance at both lines of scrimmage.

Analytics back this play too. My model project Miami by 13.5 points based on efficiency differentials. The Hurricanes’ EPA per play sits at +0.214 (third nationally) while SMU manages just +0.087 (41st). Those gaps produce blowouts.

Perfect weather awaits in Dallas: 72 degrees with minimal wind. Beck completes 74% of his passes in ideal conditions this season. SMU’s secondary ranks 78th nationally allowing 7.3 yards per attempt. There are too many factors pointing toward Miami rolling.

Miami vs SMU Best Bets

Several angles offer strong value beyond the spread. Miami has dominated first quarters all season, outscoring opponents 84-28 through eight games. That 10.5 to 3.5 average creates opportunities worth attacking.

Malachi Toney provides the best player CFB prop available. The freshman sensation averages 80.3 receiving yards per game (third in the ACC) while grading at 84.3 on deep routes. Against a Mustangs defense allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt, Toney should explode. Target his receiving yards prop and consider an anytime touchdown at plus money.

Miami vs SMU Complete Betting Picks

The total at 50.5 looks low despite dropping from 51.5. Miami has scored 35+ points in four consecutive road games. If SMU falls behind early, they’ll air it out desperately in the second half. With 79.7% of the money backing the Over, the sharp cash has already spoken.

The first-quarter spread offers solid value too. Miami -2.5 captures their fast-starting habits while avoiding potential garbage-time backdoor covers. The Hurricanes have controlled opening quarters all year, and SMU’s offensive struggles show up early before halftime adjustments kick in.

Miami vs SMU Odds

The spread started at Miami -10.5 before sharp action pushed it to -12.5. Now it’s come back down -10.5, with 68% of the handle backing SMU. There is clearly a lot of money on both sides, with the line fluctuating, but I’ll stick with the more talented team at a lower number.

The total dropped from 51.5 to 50.5, creating contrarian value on the Over with nearly 80% of the money already there.

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Odds as of Oct. 30 at CFB betting apps. Check out US betting sites to get a bonus to bet on college football.

Take the Hurricanes to dominate in Dallas. SMU may hang around early, but Miami’s superior depth and relentless pass rush wear them down after halftime. The Mustangs can’t protect Jennings long enough to sustain drives against this defensive front.