Minnesota vs Ohio State Prediction, Line, Betting Trends & H2H History

• I’m backing Minnesota to cover the massive 23.5-point spread in Saturday’s Big Ten primetime showdown
• The Golden Gophers’ elite run defense and efficient quarterback play can keep this closer than expected
• Check out my Minnesota vs Ohio State prediction with betting odds, trends and more

The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes bring their historic defense to prime time Saturday against a Minnesota Golden Gophers team that nobody’s giving a chance. Ohio State (4-0) has surrendered just 5.5 points per game while Minnesota (3-1) limps into Columbus without their top two running backs.

The Buckeyes host at Ohio Stadium at 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, October 4th, with NBC broadcasting nationally. The Minnesota vs OSU odds have ballooned from an opening of -21.5 to -23.5, but sharp money might be on the wrong side here.

I’ve broken down my Minnesota vs Ohio State prediction for Saturday’s clash, along with the latest line movement and why the Golden Gophers can hang around.

Minnesota vs Ohio State Prediction & Pick

• Minnesota +23.5 (-110 at Caesars)

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Everyone’s looking at Ohio State’s defense allowing 5.5 points per game, and assuming a blowout. They held Washington to six points. They shut down Texas. They haven’t allowed a red zone touchdown all season.

But Minnesota isn’t built like those teams. Drake Lindsey is playing the best football of any quarterback Ohio State has faced. He’s completing 65.8% of his passes with a 90.6 passing grade that ranks top five nationally. His 87% adjusted completion rate and 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate show a quarterback who protects the ball and makes smart decisions.

The line movement tells you the public loves Ohio State. It opened at -21.5 and was bet up to -24 at many books. However, sharps have bought back the number at 24, forcing oddsmakers to bring it back down to 23.5. This implies an inflated line. My model has Minnesota covering, projecting OSU winning by 15-20 points.

Julian Sayin has been efficient for Ohio State, completing 78.8% of his passes. But this is his first primetime home game as a starter. The 107,000 fans will be deafening, but the pressure’s on the home team to deliver a statement win.

The real story is Minnesota’s defense. They’re allowing just 3.1 yards per carry (6th nationally) and rank first in EPA per rush allowed. Their 11.2% sack rate ranks third in the country. Anthony Smith has 4.5 sacks through four games and will test an Ohio State offensive line that’s allowed just two sacks all season.

Yes, Darius Taylor is doubtful again. Yes, A.J. Turner is done for the year. Minnesota managed just 45 rushing yards on 15 carries against Rutgers without them. But that’s already baked into this massive spread.

Here’s what matters: Minnesota ranks 28th in offensive success rate despite their injury issues. They’re staying ahead of the chains and putting Lindsey in manageable third downs. P.J. Fleck knows how to play keep-away against superior talent.

Ohio State is 40-2 against Minnesota in their last 42 meetings. They’ve won 13 straight. History says this should be a massacre. But Ryan Day’s Buckeyes haven’t been covering massive spreads this season. They beat Texas by 10. They beat Ohio by 13. They beat Washington by 18.

The total dropping from 46.5 to 43 tells you everything. This will be a grind. Minnesota will shorten the game, protect the football, and make Ohio State earn every yard. The Buckeyes win, but not by 24.

Minnesota vs Ohio State Betting Line

The spread opened at Ohio State -21.5 and quickly moved to -23.5, indicating heavy public backing of the Buckeyes. The total has dropped significantly from 46.5 to 43, suggesting sharp money expects a lower-scoring affair.

The moneyline tells the story – Ohio State at -2800 implies a 96.6% win probability. Nobody’s questioning who wins. It’s about the margin.

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Odds as of October 2, 2025, at Caesars Sportsbook. Lock in your weekend plays by registering with the Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

Minnesota vs OSU Betting Trends

Minnesota Trends:

• 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall
• 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games against a Big Ten opponent
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 road games

Ohio State Trends:

• 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games overall
• 17-1 SU in their last 18 games at home
• 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 6
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games

Golden Gophers vs Buckeyes Public Betting Splits

Public money is hammering Ohio State despite the massive spread. However, the Gophers are getting 40% of moneyline handle with only 2% of bets, indicating some respectable sprinkle bets on an upset occuring.

The Under is a very sharp play, as it’s getting 28% of O/U handle with 16% of bets. The drop from 46.5 to 43 indicates respect for both defenses and Minnesota’s clock-killing approach.

Minnesota vs Ohio State H2H History

Ohio State has dominated this series with 13 straight wins dating back to 2000. The Buckeyes have won by an average of 23.2 points during this streak. Minnesota’s last victory came 29-17 in Minneapolis in 2000 when Glen Mason was coaching.

The closest game during Ohio State’s win streak was a 31-24 victory in 2014. Nine of the 13 wins have been by double digits, but only five have been by 24+ points.