UNC vs California Score Predictions & Same-Game Parlay Picks

• California looks to get back on track after a loss to Duke
• Can UNC win its first ACC game in the Bill Belichick era?
• Read below for my UNC vs California score predictions as well as a same-game parlay pick

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Two ACC foes square off for the first time as conference mates, with the UNC Tar Heels (2-3) heading cross-country to face the California Golden Bears (4-2). UNC is looking for its first conference win, while Cal is looking to improve to 2-1 in its second season in the ACC.

California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley plays host at 10:30 PM ET on Friday, Oct. 17, on an ESPN broadcast. I have locked in my UNC vs California score prediction as well as a same-game parlay to consider betting on Friday night.

UNC vs California Score Prediction

• California 30, UNC 17

While the spread for this game is between California -7.5 and -9.5, depending on the book, I do not think the books are adequately pricing in how decrepit UNC has been this season. UNC is 0-3 against Power 4 schools, with the losses coming by at least four scores each. Cal, on the other hand, handled a solid Minnesota team and went cross-country to defeat Boston College.

Cal’s offense has scuffled at times, and quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leads the ACC in interceptions, but North Carolina is a bottom-half defense in college football. The Tar Heels have allowed 25.8 points per game, 12th in the ACC. I expect Cal to increase this average while their coverage unit stifles any UNC comeback attempt.

UNC vs California Same-Game Parlay (+578, FanDuel)

• Under 47.5 (-110, FanDuel)
• California Team Total Over 28.5 (-110, FanDuel)
• Parlay: +578

Two of my favorite words in betting are “inverse correlation,” and this is a perfect example. As solo bets, both Under 47.5 or California Over 28.5 are -110 bets (on FanDuel). However, when parlayed, the odds jack up to +578.

California scoring enough to go over for its team total puts the overall total in jeopardy, but the North Carolina offense has been particularly anemic against FBS competition. In four games against FBS teams, UNC has scored just 53 points – a paltry 13.25 points per game.

Meanwhile, the defense has hemorrhaged points. The Tar Heels have allowed 34 or more points to all three Power 4 teams they have played. Their last two games are great examples of the inverse correlation at work as UCF scored 34 points, but the game total went Under 46.5. In UNC’s previous game, Clemson scored 38 points which caused a push in the game’s total of 48.

Road W 👏🏈 pic.twitter.com/ZEGMm3KkFU

— Clemson Football (@ClemsonFB) October 4, 2025

There is plenty of room available for UNC to fail to move the ball while California hangs 29 or more points for the third time this season. For those inclined to use alternate lines, I would be comfortable with Cal’s team total at over 30.5 (+114 on FanDuel) as well.

Alternative Angle for Inverse Correlation

• Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 2+ Passing TD (-160, FanDuel)

Instead of opting for California’s team total, take Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to throw for 2+ touchdowns (-160 on FanDuel) along with Under 47.5 for the game total. Sagapolutele has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of six games, including three each against Oregon State and Minnesota.

I cannot imagine how excited Cal fans are right now.

18-years old and already throwing like this. pic.twitter.com/6Hgvr1zuqs

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) August 31, 2025

The true freshman signal caller has a 75.1 PFF passing grade this season. His receivers have let him down at times (13 drops on the season), but the Hawaii native continues to sling the rock. He has at least 30 pass attempts in all six games, giving him ample opportunity to throw for multiple touchdowns.