USC vs Nebraska Prediction & Odds: Sharp Money Backs Cornhuskers in Primetime Big Ten Showdown

• USC opened as 6.5-point road favorites but sharp action has driven the line down to -4.5
• The Trojans are dealing with major injuries to their backfield, losing both Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders
• See below for my USC vs Nebraska prediction and best bet, along with the odds for Saturday’s Big Ten matchup

The #23 USC Trojans travel to Lincoln for a crucial Big Ten matchup with Nebraska on Saturday night. The Trojans (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten) need this win to stay in the conference race, while Nebraska (6-2, 3-2) looks to build on last week’s 28-21 home victory over Northwestern in the latest college football odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET from Memorial Stadium, in Lincoln, NE, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my USC vs Nebraska prediction for Saturday’s Big Ten showdown.

USC vs Nebraska Prediction

• Nebraska Covers +4.5 Spread

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The line movement tells you everything you need to know about where the sharp money landed. USC opened as 6.5-point road favorites, but despite 67% of the spread handle backing the Trojans, the line has actually moved toward Nebraska. That’s textbook reverse line movement.

I’ll be the first to admit this is an ugly bet. Nebraska is 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games. They haven’t been covering for bettors, and the public has noticed. That’s exactly why 67% of the money is on USC.

But here’s the contrarian angle: USC is 0-6 ATS in their last six games played in Week 10. The Trojans have been a covering disaster in this specific spot, and now they’re dealing with massive injuries to their backfield.

Key Statistical Matchup

USC’s injury situation can’t be ignored. Leading rusher Waymond Jordan (576 yards, 5 TDs) is out following ankle surgery. Eli Sanders (264 yards) is done for the season with a knee injury. The Trojans managed just 68 rushing yards in their 34-24 loss at Notre Dame, their season low.

The turnover battle heavily favors Nebraska. The Cornhuskers commit just 1.0 turnover per game while USC averages 1.4. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has thrown at least one interception in three straight games, including two against Notre Dame.

Memorial Stadium under the lights creates problems for road teams. USC’s explosive offense averages 530.0 yards per game, but they’ll be operating without their ground game. When you can’t run the ball and you’re facing 85,000 screaming fans, mistakes happen.

Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has his own turnover issues with six interceptions over his last five games. But he’s at home where the crowd works in his favor, and he managed the game efficiently against Northwestern with 141 yards and just one pick.

USC vs Nebraska Best Bet

The public loves USC here, and I understand why. They’re the ranked team with the explosive offense averaging 42.4 points per game. Nebraska has been a bad bet lately, failing to cover in five straight.

But that’s exactly what creates value on the home dog. When 81% of moneyline money backs the road favorite and the line moves the opposite direction, you follow the sharp money.

USC coach Lincoln Riley praised Nebraska’s defense this week, and for good reason. The Cornhuskers allow just 19.6 points per game, ranking 32nd nationally. They held Northwestern to 21 points last week, their best defensive performance since opening the season.

“Great secondary, great guys up front,” Maiava said of Nebraska. “I see it as another great opportunity for us and the boys to showcase what we’ve been practicing.”

The problem is USC hasn’t been showcasing much lately. They’re 4-3 ATS on the season and just 1-2 ATS on the road. Against Notre Dame, Maiava completed just 52.4% of his passes, his worst performance of the season.

My USC vs Nebraska best bet is Nebraska +4.5, but I also like the Over 58.5. USC has gone Over in 9 of their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Even without their own running game, the Trojans can move the ball through the air. Maiava ranks third nationally with 311.4 passing yards per game.

USC vs Nebraska Odds

The best place to bet Nebraska is at FanDuel where you can get +4.5 at -106 odds. FanDuel also has the best price on Over 58.5 at -115. Multiple books are offering Nebraska +165 on the moneyline, which provides nice value for a small sprinkle.

Odds as of November 1 at consensus sportsbooks. Download the best sports betting app for CFB Week 10.

Per the college football public betting trends, the public is all over USC. As of Saturday morning, 67% of the spread handle and 81% of moneyline money backs the Trojans. That’s exactly the spot where you want to fade the public with a contrarian home dog.