Week 10 College Football Predictions – Early Picks for Top Games
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off Tuesday
- #8 Georgia Tech is one of six undefeated FBS teams remaining
- See my favorite Week 10 College Football predictions below, and the best early picks for top games
Week 10 of the college football season continues Tuesday through Saturday, as our run of six weeks with football to sweat every day rolls on.
Six undefeated FBS teams are remaining, and I’ve circled games involving three of them that you need to bet right now. The anchor on my Week 10 college football predictions card is #8 Georgia Tech, who are being undervalued by the market.
Week 10 College Football Predictions
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The opening college football Week 10 odds pegged the Yellow Jackets as 6.5-point favorites at NC State. The Wolfpack are a mess defensively and have little chance of slowing down Haynes King and Co.
I’m also targeting the Penn State vs #1 Ohio State matchup, as I believe the Buckeyes are getting a little too much respect by oddsmakers. Last but not least, I’m betting Navy on the road vs North Texas, as the Midshipmen should be able to dominate time of possession and run all over the Mean Green.
Georgia Tech vs NC State Prediction
Given his performance, King should be getting way more attention in the Heisman Trophy odds. The dual-threat QB is fresh off 395 total yards and 5 TD against Syracuse, in a 41-16 thrashing of the Orange.
Georgia Tech is 8-0 overall, and 5-0 in conference play for the first time in program history. King has the second-most rushing scores in the entire FBS, while the Yellow Jackets have been rewarding bettors in all different types of scenarios.
They’re 6-2 ATS with multiple covers as big favorites and as underdogs. Georgia Tech is top-15 in yards per play, and top-21 in points per play, and are going to score at will against an underwhelming NC State defense.
Haynes King Stats
That unit checks in ranked 107th in scoring defense, and 113th in yards per play allowed. They can’t rush the passer and don’t generate takeaways, which leaves little optimism that they can keep King in check. The Wolfpack surrendered 56 points last week at Pitt and have given up at least 36 points in three of their past four outings versus FBS opponents.
Penn State vs Ohio State Pick
On to the Buckeyes next, the current favorites in the National Championship odds. Ohio State has erased every opposing offense they’ve seen so far, but I’d hesitate before laying 21 points with them for a couple of reasons.
Number one, despite their three-game skid, Penn State is still a very good defense. The Nittany Lions are top-35 in points allowed per game and yards allowed per play. They’re especially strong versus the pass, yielding just 5.8 yards per throw.
Secondly, the Buckeyes’ offense is efficient, but it’s slow and lacks explosiveness. Ohio State’s passing attack is 105th in average yards per attempt and 109th in big-time throws. It’s hard to build margin when you don’t run a lot of plays or produce chunk gains, especially against a strong defense.
Lastly, this game’s total is only 43 points. Teams are rarely able to cover 10-point spreads in such low total games, let alone 21 points. Yes, the Nittany Lions offense is depleted, but they can still run the ball effectively, which is one way to slow down the Buckeyes’ exceptional pass rush.
Navy vs North Texas Best Bet
Early money has come in on North Texas versus Navy, but I don’t see it. Sure, the Mean Green’s offense is elite, but I question how much time they’re even going to spend on the field.
That’s because the Mean Green can’t stop the run. They rank 104th in yards allowed per carry and 129th in rushing yards allowed per game. There’s no team better positioned to expose that weakness than the Midshipmen, who lead the nation in rushing yards per game.
Navy runs on over 76% of their offensive snaps, and are second in the country in yards per play. QB Blake Horvath is tied with King for the second most rushing scores in the FBS, and no team averages more yards per throw than the Midshipmen when they do drop back to pass.
North Texas, meanwhile, has faced only one top-37 opponent and didn’t go well. They coughed up 63 points to South Florida in Week 7 en route to a 27-point loss. Run, don’t walk, to the window to bet Navy +6.5.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.