PGA Championship Picks & Longshots to Target

• The PGA Championship tees off Thursday, from Quail Hollow
• Viktor Hovland has back-to-back top-3 results at the PGA Championship
• See my PGA Championship Picks and Longshots to target below

The second Major of the season tees off on Thursday, as the best golfers on the planet converge on Quail Hollow for the 2025 PGA Championship. The tournament is littered with compelling storylines, but what bettors really want to know is are we finally going to get a winner from outside the top tier of players. 

Each of the past five Major winners have gone off at 25-1 or lower in the outright market, but this event sets up very well for some longer priced golfers.

PGA Championship Picks

My favorite longshot of the bunch is Viktor Hovland at +5500 in the PGA Championship odds. The Norwegian has a sparkling history at the PGA, and has performed very well in the past at this golf course.

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PGA Championship Longshots to Target

• Viktor Hovland to Win (+5500 at FanDuel)
• Shane Lowry to Win (+5500 at DraftKings)

Hovland’s price varies across sportsbooks, with the best odds available currently at FanDuel. His +5500 price tag gives him an implied win probability of 1.78%, which is more than fair given his talent. 

Hovland has produced back-to-back top-three results at the PGA Championship, and also owns a third place finish at the Tour’s regular stop at Quail Hollow. He’s back to being an elite ball striker after an early season rough patch, gaining at least 1.7 strokes on approach in six consecutive starts. 

The 27-year-old won two months ago at the Valspar, and has one particular skill that’s going to set him apart this week. 50% of approach shots at Quail Hollow come from 175 yards or further away. Hovland is an immaculate long iron player, and ranks first in proximity over the last 24 rounds from 175-200 yards, and second from 200+ yards. 

Proximity Ranks from 175-200 Yards – Last 24 Rounds

Also at +5500 is our second favorite longshot bet in Shane Lowry. The Irishman finished second at the Truist last week, and has been trending towards a victory this year for quite some time. 

Lowry has four top-eight results in his last nine starts, including multiple second place finishes. He ranks seventh in strokes gained approach and eighth in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds, and has performed very well at this tournament in the past. 

Lowry has two top-six finishes in his last four PGA Championship appearances, along with a T-12 result. Like Hovland, he’s also a strong long iron player, ranking 25th in proximity from 175-200 yards over the last 24 rounds. 

PGA Championship Best Value Bets

• Sepp Straka Top 20 (+190 at DraftKings)
• Justin Rose Top 20 (+260 at DraftKings)

We have to be conservative with our bet sizing on our longshot bets based on their small implied win probability. The same is not necessary in the finishing position markets. My favorite bet is Sepp Straka at +190 to finish in the top-20, and I’m not overreacting to last week’s win.

Straka has been one of the best ball strikers on the planet this year, gaining 3.4 strokes on approach or better in seven straight starts. He was seventh two years ago at the PGA Championship, and eighth at the Quail Hollow stop last season.

I’m also targeting Justin Rose in the top-20 market. Rose is +260 to finish T-20 or better, something he’s accomplished in five straight PGA Championships. He played phenomenally at the Masters before losing in a playoff, and has two additional top-eight results in his last seven starts.

Rose ranks top-30 in the field in ball striking and strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds, and top-17 in strokes gained tee-to-green and putting. He’s also had a ton of great history at Quail Hollow, finishing T-5 or better three times in his career.