Houston Roughnecks vs Birmingham Stallions Odds, Predictions & Picks (May 11)

• The Birmingham Stallions are 5.5 point favorites over the Houston Roughnecks in UFL action on Sunday
• Birmingham defeated Houston 23-16 earlier this season
• See my Roughnecks vs Stallions predictions and picks below, plus the best odds

Week 7 on the UFL schedule rolls on Sunday with a Mother’s Day doubleheader. First up, the USFL conference-leading Birmingham Stallions host the Houston Roughnecks. Online sportsbooks are bullish on the home team in this matchup, but I think they’re overvaluing the Stallions in this spot.

Kick-off is scheduled for Noon ET, with ESPN and ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Houston Roughnecks vs Birmingham Stallions Odds

The Stallions are currently favored by 5.5 points and -265 on the moneyline. The Roughnecks come back as a +215 underdog, while the total sits at 38.5 points. These two teams met back in Week 4, with Birmingham earning a 23-16 victory. A lot has changed since then, most importantly who’s under center for the Stallions.

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Roughnecks vs Stallions Predictions

My prediction is that Houston gives Birmingham all they can handle. Stallions starter Matt Corral is out with a hip injury, meaning the team is stuck with Case Cookus under center. The Northern Arizona product is completing only 55% of his passes this season, and threw for just 166 yards in last week’s win over last place San Antonio.

That makes back-to-back starts for Cookus with less than 170 yards passing. He’s a major step down talent wise from Corral, who has NFL experience, and threw for 648 yards in his three starts.

To make matters worse for the Birmingham offense, is the fact that their ground game is non-existent. The Stallions don’t boast a single running back who averages more than 3.8 yards per carry. Their three most productive rushers are all quarterbacks, and while Cookus has rushed for 98 yards on 11 attempts, nearly all of that came in one game.

As for the Houston defense, they enter play as the third best scoring defense in the UFL. The Roughnecks are number one in forced fumbles and third in takeaways. They also rank third in tackles for loss and fourth in sacks.

UFL Scoring Defense Leaders

On the opposite side of the ball, solving the Stallions defense is no easy feat. Birmingham leads the UFL in scoring defense, and is number one against the run, yielding only 3.4 yards per rush.

Against the pass it’s a different story. That’s where Houston would be wise to attack, as the Stallions are second worst in both yards and completions allowed.

That’s good news for Jalan McClendon who boasts one of the league’s top completion percentages at 70.3%. McClendon has led the Roughnecks to back-to-back wins, and should be able to find success through the air.

His main target will be Justin Hall, who’s thrived as the top option this year. Hall grabbed 6 receptions, including a TD and a two-point conversion last week against Memphis. He leads the UFL in catches, and his short to intermediate level routes lead to plenty of easy completions.

Houston Roughnecks vs Birmingham Stallions Picks

• Houston Roughnecks +5.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Much like Birmingham, Houston’s run game is underwhelming at best. Still, I have confidence that they can move the ball through the air enough to keep this game close, and perhaps even pull off the upset.

These two teams are far more evenly matched than a 5.5 point spread suggests. That’s amplified with Cookus leading the Stallions offense, as he just doesn’t have the ceiling to warrant laying this many points. I believe he’ll struggle to lead scoring drives against a good Roughnecks defense, leaving the door open for McClendon to do just enough to cash our ticket.