Blue Jays vs Dodgers Expert Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds (Game 3)
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Tied 1-1, the World Series shifts to Los Angeles for a crucial swing game at Dodger Stadium
- The Dodgers will start red-hot Tyler Glasnow against struggling Max Scherzer for the Blue Jays
- See my expert Blue Jays vs Dodgers picks and predictions, plus the best player props to bet
The Los Angeles Dodgers (103-71, 57-30 home) look to take control of the World Series as the scene shifts to Southern California for Game 3 against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays (102-73, 43-43 away). First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET. The Dodgers start 6’8 righty Tyler Glasnow (3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in reg. season) while the Jays counter with struggling legend Max Scherzer (5.19 ERA. 1.29 WHIP in reg. season) in a pivotal Game 3 with the series knotted at one game apiece.
Glasnow has made three appearances in the 2025 postseason and has been virtually unhittable (.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) with 18 Ks in just 13.1 innings. He’ll face a Blue Jays lineup that he’s largely dominated in the past. On the other side, Scherzer brings a wealth of experience to the mound but will have to navigate a powerful Dodgers order that has hit him well in previous encounters.
Below, I have set out (1) my expert picks for Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 3, (2) the pitcher and hitter props for the top-six players on each team and both starters, (3) the full pitcher-vs-batter history for both starters/lineups, (4) the closing odds and betting splits.
Jump to: EXPERT PICKS || PLAYER PROPS || PITCHER-vs-BATTER STATS || ODDS & SPLITS
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Picks & Prediction
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+100) at FanDuel
- Under 8.5 Runs (-115) at BetMGM
- Glasnow over 5.5 strikeouts (-135) at Sports Interaction
The pitching matchup is the dominant storyline in this pivotal Game 3, and it slants heavily in favor of the home team. Tyler Glasnow has been operating on another level this postseason, posting a minuscule 0.68 ERA. He faces a Toronto lineup that he has historically handled with ease, holding current Blue Jays hitters to a paltry .210 batting average.
His ability to miss bats and limit hard contact should neutralize Toronto’s offense. Conversely, Max Scherzer faces an uphill battle. While he is a seasoned veteran, the current Dodgers roster has decent results against him (.721 OPS) and he has a 2.026 WHIP over his last three starts (one postseason, two regular season). Superstars Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani have been successful against him, and in the electric atmosphere of Dodger Stadium, that trend is likely to continue.
The situational trends overwhelmingly support a Los Angeles win, too. The Dodgers are an incredible 15-2 (.882) over their last 17 games and have been just as dominant as favorites, going 13-2 (.867) in their last 15. At home against winning opponents, they are 6-1 in their last seven.
While the Blue Jays have been a profitable underdog team recently (4-1 in their last five), this matchup is a different beast. With Glasnow dealing and the Dodgers’ offense poised to jump on Scherzer early, Los Angeles is in a prime position to take a 2-1 series lead.
The sharp money siding with the under is also telling; Glasnow’s dominance is the main driver, and even if the Dodgers score, he’s capable of shutting the Blue Jays out completely.
Player Props for TOR vs LAD Game 3
MLB player props as of Oct. 27 at FanDuel.
Looking at the prop market, several lines stand out based on the historical matchups. Max Scherzer’s earned-runs line is set at 2.5. Given his end-of-season struggles (11 runs on 17 hits in 5.2 IP in his final two starts), the over at even-money is appealing. His strikeout prop is unusually low at 3.5.
On the other side, Tyler Glasnow’s strikeout line of 5.5 is certainly attainable given he has fanned 33 Blue Jays in just 100 at-bats. The over (-152) is heavily juiced but aligns with his dominant stuff and the matchup history.
Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History
Glasnow has faced the hitters on the Toronto roster in a total of 100 at-bats. He’s held them to a miniscule .210 average and subpar .641 OPS.
Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Tyler Glasnow
George Springer has by far the best history against Glasnow, with a .462 average and 1.192 OPS (two home runs) in 13 ABs. Vlad Guerrero Jr has also found success with a 1.123 OPS in 17 ABs (one home run, two doubles).
Light-hitting shortstop Andrew Gimenez is the only other Blue Jay with a long ball off Glasnow.
Los Angeles Dodgers Career Statistics vs Max Scherzer
Altogether, the Dodgers have just a .221 average against Scherzer in a large sample-size of 172 ABs. Their OPS of .721 is better, thanks to seven home runs and ten doubles.
Mookie Betts has the best career numbers against the 41-year-old righty, going 3-for-10 with a 1.117 OPS (home run, double). Tommy Edman (1.069 OPS) is the only other player with an OPS over .833 against Scherzer. Shohei Ohtani is 2-for-6 with a double.
Closing Odds for Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 3
As of 3:29 pm ET, the best LAD moneyline had shortened to -200 (at bet365). Toronto bettors can now get the Jays as long as +172 to win (at FanDuel). The total is sitting at 8.5 with the under slightly juiced (-115 or shorter). The price on the over ranges from -105 to even-money.
Without the vig, the current moneyline prices give the Dodgers a 64.6% implied win probability, leaving just 35.4% for the Blue Jays.
Odds commentary as of 3:29 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price if the MLB odds move before first pitch.
Game 3 Odds Movement
Opening odds for this contest had the Los Angeles Dodgers listed around -192, and the market has since moved further in their favor to the current -205 line. This shift indicates sustained betting action on the home team, likely driven by the pitching matchup and their stellar home record. The run line has seen a similar adjustment, with the Dodgers’ -1.5 odds improving from +113 to +100, signaling that bettors are not just picking them to win, but to win comfortably.
The most significant movement has occurred on the total, which opened at 8.0 runs and has been bet up to 8.5. Public betting data shows that over 65% of tickets are on the Over, pushing sportsbooks to adjust the line. However, sharp money analysis suggests a different story, with a higher percentage of the handle on the Under. This classic public vs. sharp disagreement creates a fascinating dynamic. The sharp money also appears to be backing the Toronto Blue Jays on the moneyline, suggesting they see value in the underdog price against a public-backed favorite. This divergence points to potential value in fading the public sentiment on the total and considering the Blue Jays as a live underdog.
LAD vs TOR Game 3 Public-Betting Splits
Today’s MLB public betting splits reveal a fascinating divide between casual bettors and sharp money. The public is backing the Dodgers on the moneyline and they are heavily favoring the over. However, the money percentages indicate that larger, sharper wagers are on the Blue Jays moneyline and the under.
The runline is the only market where the public and sharps seem to agree, with a strong lean toward the Dodgers covering the -1.5 spread. This suggests that while professionals see value in the underdog Blue Jays to potentially pull off an upset, they also believe the most likely outcome is a comfortable Dodgers victory, aligning with my pick at the top.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
