Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees A.I. Picks & Predictions for Game 3

• The Blue Jays can sweep the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS on Tuesday night
• A marquee pitching matchup features New York’s Carlos Rodón against Toronto’s Shane Bieber
• See our A.I.’s Blue Jays vs Yankees picks and predictions, plus the Game 3 odds and player props

After getting demolished on the road in Game 1 (10-1) and Game 2 (13-7), the New York Yankees (93-68, 50-31 home) return to the Big Apple looking to avoid a sweep in their best-of-five ALDS with the Toronto Blue Jays (93-68, 40-41 away). With their season on the line, the Pinstripes hand the ball to Carlos Rodón () while the Jays go with former Cy Young-winner Shane Bieber (). This must-win game for New York is schedule to start at 8:08 pm ET at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.

Below, I have set out (1) our A.I.’s Blue Jays vs Yankees picks for Game 3, (2) the pitcher-vs-hitter stats for Bieber and Rodón, (3) the TOR/NYY player props, and (4) up-to-the-minute Game 3 odds.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees A.I. Picks & Prediction

• New York Yankees moneyline (-155) at BetMGM
• Over 7.5 runs (-120) at ESPN Bet
• Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases (-105) at BetMGM

The Blue Jays are riding high after offensive explosions in the first two games of the series, and Carlos Rodón has an ugly history against the heart of Toronto’s order (specifically Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Alejandro Kirk), which could spell trouble early for New York. But the A.I. is still backing the Yankees on the moneyline due to their phenomenal season-long record at Yankee stadium, and even better track record at home lately: the Yankees are an 9-1 in their last ten home games, while Toronto was a game under .500 on the road in the regular season.

Our A.I. expects the Yankees’ offense, led by Aaron Judge, to do enough damage against Shane Bieber to overcome whatever struggles Rodón may have. Though it’s far less than 100%, the Yankees’ bullpen has enough talent left to lock down a late lead.

The A.I. also likes the over (7.5 runs) in Game 3, reasoning that the over is 14-6 in Toronto’s last 20 as an underdog, both lineups are hot after Sunday’s 20-run outburst in Toronto, and the Blue Jays have a solid track record against Rodón.

Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Bieber vs Rodón

In 114 total at-bats, Toronto hitters have generated a respectable .254 average and .752 OPS against Rodón. They only have three home runs in those 114 at-bats, though: two from George Springer, one from Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Toronto Blue Jays Career Statistics vs Carlos Rodón

Guerrero has by far the best overall numbers against the Yankee lefty, going 10-for-17 (.588 avg) with four extra-base hits (1.608 OPS). Alejandro Kirk is 3-for-11 (.273 avg) with three doubles.

Rodón didn’t give up a HR to Toronto in two regular-season starts, allowing six runs total (four earned) on 11 hits and eight walks over just 10.0 IP. New York lost both games (5-4 on June 30, 4-1 on July 21), though both took place in Toronto. Rodón had a 0.882 WHIP at home compared to 1.194 on the road in the regular season.

New York Yankees Career Statistics vs Shane Bieber

Though Bieber is an eight-year vet who’s spent his entire career in the AL, the Yankee lineup only has 52 total at-bats against him. Making matters worse for New York, they have only mustered a .154 average and .488 OPS in those 52 at-bats.

Aaron Judge is just 1-for-13, though the one hit left the yard. Giancarlo Stanton (3-for-15) is the only other Yankee with a homer off Bieber.

Bieber struggled some in road starts this season, posting a 3.97 ERA away from home compared to 3.27 in Toronto.

Yankees vs Blue Jays Player Props for Game 3

MLB player props as of October 7 at MGM.

Looking at the prop market, there are several intriguing angles. Rodón’s earned-runs line is set at a low 1.5, but with heavy juice on the over (-189), reflecting his historical struggles against the Blue Jays’ top hitters.

For the Blue Jays, Guerrero’s total bases prop at 1.5 (+125) offers excellent value. He is 10-for-17 with four extra-base hits in his career against Rodón and is coming off a strong performance in Games 1 and 2 (6-for-9 with two home runs and six RBI).

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

The odds establish the Yankees as solid home favorites. As of 12:05 pm ET, the best moneyline price on New York is -155 at BetMGM. The Blue Jays are as long as +135 at bet365. BetMGM also has the best runline option for the Pinstripes at -1.5 (+145), while bet365 is offering the Blue Jays +1.5 at -160.

The run total ranges from 7.5 to 8.0. Under bettors can get U 8.0 (-118) at DraftKings. Over bettors can get O 7.5 (-120) at BetMGM.

Odds commentary as of 12:09 pm ET. The odds in the table will automatically change to reflect the best-available price for each market if the lines move before first pitch.

NYY vs TOR Game Odds Movement

The betting lines have seen notable shifts since opening. The Yankees’ moneyline opened at -149 and has been bet up to -155 (or shorter), indicating that early money is backing the home team to extend the series. The Toronto Blue Jays have drifted from +125 to +135.

The most significant movement has occurred on the total. Opening at 7.5 with the Over at -105, the line has shifted heavily, with the over now priced at -115 and some books increase the O/U to 8.0. The MLB public betting splits confirm that the movement is a direct result of betting action: a staggering 88% of O/U handle and 93% of O/U tickets are on the Over.