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The Best Home Run Props to Bet Today – Get a +12872 HR Parlay on Wednesday, May 7th

John Hyslop

By John Hyslop in MLB Baseball

Published:


May 4, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Detroit Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter (30) celebrates with teammates after hitting a three run home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the sixth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images
  • We’ve got a very nice, large MLB slate to pick through on Wednesday, May 7
  • Again, we’ve got some weather issues that we need to think about, but as always, we can do that
  • See below for my +12872 home run parlay today (May 7th)

It’s Wednesday, and as we all already know, Wednesday MLB slates need to be celebrated. We’re getting the best of both worlds each and every Wednesday. MLB gives us a decent-sized daytime slate and followed by a healthy nighttime slate. What’s better than that? We literally get to live the dream, sweating dinger bets all damn day! The one we have for today will stretch from the last hours of our workday until the time we’re ready to go to bed. What a world. What’s even better is that I’ve already given this thing a 0.0% chance of losing. Feels right.

Please play every one of these guys straight for the same amount you play the parlay. That way, when just one of them homers, we profit. It’s almost too easy.

PickOdds
Pete Alonso HR+370
Kerry Carpenter HR+360
George Springer HR+500
Three-Leg Parlay+12872

MLB odds as of May 7 at FanDuel. Find the best sports betting app here.

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CLAIM OFFER

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #1 – Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run

Betting dingers is about trust. We have to trust the guys we throw into these Thrillys. We just do. Lucky for us, we can trust Pete Alonso. He knows what he’s doing.

Just look at what he does to Merrill Kelly’s pitch mix.

PitchAlonso Barrel Rate vs Pitch from RHP (L30 Days)Kelly Hard Hit % vs LHB (2025)
Sinker14%63%
Four-seam Fastball17%60%

Here’s the thing, I’m not the biggest pitcher vs batter guy, but when it helps my argument, you’re damn right I’m going to use it. Pete already has three dingers in his career off Merrill Kelly. That’s a good thing.

What’s better is, Kelly has already given up three dingers to right-handed batters in just 61 plate appearances this season. What that means to me is, he hasn’t learned his lesson yet. Translation: Pete is going deep, and there’s really nothing anyone can do about it. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Pete Alonso to Hit a Home Run (+370) – FanDuel
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Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #2 – Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run

Speaking of guys we can trust, let’s talk Kerry Carpenter for a minute. Most of us from the streets know him as “Barry,” but we’ll call him by his government name here. That’s respect.

Another thing we should respect is what Kerry does to guys like Chase Dollander.

PitchCarpenter Hard Hit % vs Pitch from RHP (L30 Days)Dollander Hard Hit % vs LHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball67%58%
Changeup31%100%

We know Kerry hits bombs. The guy already has eight for the season. But one thing a lot of people don’t know is how hard he actually hits the ball. He leads the Detroit Tigers in 100+ mph EV hits off righties so far this season.

That’s bad news for Dollander, who is a legit meatball server. This game is in Colorado, where the air is as thin as a crackhead, not that Kerry needs help. My guess is the first pitch of the game ends up in a fan’s glove. Feels easy.

  • The Bet: Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+360) – FanDuel

Wednesday HR Parlay Leg #3 – George Springer to Hit a Home Run

Finally, since this whole thing is being held together by trust, we should include the newest member of the Circle of Trust. That would be the great George Springer. I’m not sure how it took so long to include him, but he’s in now, and that’s what is important.

Feast your eyes on what he does to Yucei Kikuchi’s pitch mix.

PitchSpringer Barrel Rate vs Pitch from LHP (2025)Kikuchi Hard Hit % vs RHB (2025)
Four-seam Fastball25%55%
Changeup33%53%

The haters are going to say that Springer has never homered off of Kikuchi, but we know that pitcher vs data stats don’t matter. Who knows when those at-bats happened? What we do know is that the at-bats Springer will get tonight will be right in the middle of the greatest EV heater he’s ever been on. He’s been 100+ on every hit for what feels like weeks now. This is child’s play.

  • The Bet: George Springer to Hit a Home Run (+500) – FanDuel
  • SBD 3-Man HR Strategy Results: -4.963 Units
John Hyslop

John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it.

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