Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers A.I. Picks & Predictions, Plus Player Props & Odds

• Tied 1-1, the Mariners and Tigers meet in a huge Game 3 of their best-of-five ALDS on Oct. 7
• The pitching matchup features Seattle’s Logan Gilbert against Detroit’s Jack Flaherty
• See our A.I.’s favorite Mariners/Tigers picks and props to target, plus the latest SEA/DET Game 3 odds

Fresh of an upset win over Detroit ace Tarik Skubal, the Seattle Mariners (90-72, 39-42 away) aim to take their first lead of the best-of-five ALDS with the Tigers (87-75, 46-35 home) in Game 3 on Tuesday night at Comerica Park in the Motor City (4:08 pm ET).

Detroit sends number-two starter Jack Flaherty (8-15, 4.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) to the bump while Seattle counters with the hard-throwing Logan Gilbert (6-6, 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), who has never surrendered a home run to any player on the Detroit roster (77 at-bats).

Below, I have set out our A.I.’s Mariners vs Tigers picks (moneyline and total), its favorite player prop to target, and the latest SEA/DET Game 3 odds, which slightly favor the road team.

Jump to: A.I. PICKS || PLAYER PROPS || GAME 3 ODDS

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers A.I. Picks & Prediction

• Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+117) at BetRivers
• Under 7.5 (-109) at Underdog

Our A.I. likes the Tigers to win straight-up as +117 home underdogs. While the Mariners are 16-3 as a favorite in their last 19 games, have won their last six games on the road as a favorite, and are 5-1 in the last six against Detroit, the A.I. is influenced by Flaherty’s performance in the Wild Card against Cleveland, when he posted a 1.93 ERA in Game 2 (three hits, two walks, one run over 4.2 IP with four Ks).

Flaherty was considerably better at home than on the road this season (4.17 ERA, 1.22 WHIP vs 5.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), which isn’t a surprise given how Comerica Park suppresses power. While a few Mariners have hit him well in a tiny sample size, his overall stuff should play up in a postseason atmosphere. On the other side, Logan Gilbert is a formidable arm, but the Tigers’ active roster has collectively hit .299 against him. Key hitters like Riley Greene (.417) and Gleyber Torres (.357) have seen him well, which should lead to early traffic on the bases.

The A.I. is also influenced by the fact that sharp money appears to be coming in on the Detroit runline, signaling that professional bettors expect a tight contest. In a game that projects as a low-scoring, one-run affair, taking the home team with plus-money odds is the superior value play.

The A.I. also loves the under (7.5 at -109), which it says holds significant value in a playoff game featuring two solid starters in a pitcher’s park.

Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Both lineups have a decent level of familiarity with the opposing starter. The Tigers have 77 at-bats against Gilbert; the Mariners have 101 at-bats against Flaherty. The Tigers have generated a considerably higher average, but the Mariners have hit for substantially more power.

Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Jack Flaherty

The Mariners have piled up 101 at-bats against Flaherty with mixed results. Altogether, they have a .238 average and .778 OPS. Randy Arozarena has the best overall history, going 3-for-8 with two home runs and a double (.1750 OPS). Eugenio Suarez is only 6-for-26 (.240) but three of his hits were homers.

Julio Rodriguez is the only other player with a home run off of Flaherty, but that was his only hit in seven at-bats.

Cal Raleigh is 1-for-7 with a single. Jorge Polanco, how had two homers in Game 2, is 0-for-3 with two Ks.

Detroit Tigers Career Statistics vs Logan Gilbert

The Tigers have hit for an excellent average against Gilbert (.299 in 77 at-bats). But one thing Gilbert has done exceptionally well against the Detroit hitters is keep the ball in the yard. They don’t have a single home run off the 6’6 righty in 77 at-bats, an ill portent for a Detroit squad that’s heavily reliant on the longball.

Tigers vs Mariners Game 3 Player Props

MLB player props as of October 7 at BetMGM.

Gilbert has a strikeout prop of 6.5 with roughly even odds both ways (-110o|-120u).

Flaherty’s line is one K lower at 5.5 and the juice is on the under (+115o|-149u).

Cal Raleigh has the shortest odds to go over 1.5 total bases (even-money) and the shortest odds to hit a home run (+219), which he did 60 times in the regular season.

Our A.I.’s favorite player prop to bet is another Seattle slugger, though.

Mariners vs Tigers A.I. Player-Prop Pick

• Julio Rodriguez over 1.5 total bases (+118) at Underdog

Julio Rodriguez has a history of hitting for power against Jack Flaherty, making over 1.5 total bases at +118 an attractive play. The fact that Rodriguez comes in hot is another variable the A.I. likes: J-Rod was 3-for-5 with a home run in Game 1 and 1-for-4 with a double in Game 2.

Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Odds

As of 10:36 am ET on gameday, the Mariners are -132 road favorites at FanDuel (or slightly shorter at other books) while the Tigers are as long as +115 bet365. Without the juice, the current moneyline prices give Seattle a 55.3% implied win probability, leaving the Tigers with 44.7%.

The total is sitting at 7.5 across the board, with roughly -110 odds each way. Game 1 (3-2 DET) and Game 2 (3-2 SEA) both stayed comfortably under that number.

SEA vs DET Game 3 Odds Movement

The betting lines for this pivotal Game 3 have seen some noteworthy shifts since opening. The Mariners opened as -130 favorites on the moneyline and have been bet up slightly, while the Tigers moved from +110 to +115. This movement indicates that the majority of public money is backing the road team.

The total opened at 7.5 runs, with the under juiced to -120. It has since settled at a standard -110 on both sides.