Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Picks & Player Props

• The Cubs face elimination for the second straight day when they host the Brewers in NLDS Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 9
• We’ll see dueling aces as Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta faces Chicago’s Matthew Boyd
• See the Brewers vs Cubs Game 4 odds, picks, and expert predictions

The Chicago Cubs (92-70, 50-31 home) staved off elimination with a gritty Game 3 victory (4-3) and now look to even the series as they host the visiting Milwaukee Brewers (92-70, 50-31 away) in Game 4 of the NLDS on Thursday night at Wrigley Field (first pitch at 8:08 pm ET on TBS).

Both teams turn back to their Game 1 starters: Milwaukee hands the ball to Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) while Chicago sends left-hander Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.221 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) to the mound after the team’s de facto ace was chased after just 0.2 innings in Game 1.

Despite Boyd’s struggles in the series opener, the Brewers/Cubs Game 4 odds are a near-pick’em.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Mid-day Thursday, the Brewers were -120 favorites at BetMGM (or slightly shorter, depending on the sportsbook), while the Cubs were as long as +105 at Caesars. The razor-thin moneyline gives Milwaukee a 51% implied win probability and Chicago 49%, once the vig is removed.

The total is sitting at just 7.0 runs with the over juiced at -115 or -120 from book to book. Before you go jumping on the over, note that the forecast shows winds will be blowing in at Wrigley, creating a very pitcher-friendly environment. Home runs will be hard to come by.

MIL vs CHC Odds Movement for Game 4

The betting lines have seen subtle but significant movement since opening. The moneyline opened with the Cubs as slight -111 favorites, but has flipped to favor the Brewers once Peralta was announced as the team’s Game 4 starter. The current MLB public betting splits show a massive 78%% of moneyline handle and 74% of ML wagers on the Brewers to close out the series tonight.

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History

The Brewers lineup has 83 (mostly productive) at-bats against Boyd, while the Cubs have racked up 199 total at-bats against Peralta but with very limited success.

Milwaukee Brewers Career Statistics vs Matthew Boyd

Boyd’s Game 1 start was an unmitigated disaster. He gave up extra-base hits to the first three batters he faced, allowing four hits and a walk in total over just 0.2 innings before getting yanked. Chourio, Contreras, and Turang had the trio of first-inning XBHs. Perkins had the other hit, an RBI single.

Contreras is not 5-for-10 against Boyd, lifetime, with one homer and one double. Chourio has reached base in three of his four at bats, doubling once and walking twice.

Chicago Cubs Batters vs Freddy Peralta

Michael Busch staked Chicago to an early 1-0 with a first-inning homer off Peralta in Game 1. He would then pitch four scoreless before a sixth-inning home run from Ian Happ. Altogether, Peralta gave up two earned runs on four hits and three walks with nine strikeouts over 5.2 IP.

That outing was a step down from his usual domination of this Chicago lineup. He’s held the Cubbie hitters to a .161 average and .591 OPS over their 199 at-bats.

Busch only has three hits in 19 at-bats but all three were home runs. PCA has the best overall history against Peralta, going 6-for-13 with a home run and a double (1.269 OPS).

Peralta’s arsenal is built around a dominant four-seam fastball that averages 96 mph and a slider that generates an elite 44% whiff rate. He excels at missing bats, which could pose a significant challenge for a Cubs offense that relies more on stringing together hits than on pure power. The Cubs’ best path to scoring will likely involve capitalizing on the few walks Peralta allows and forcing him to labor through innings to drive up his pitch count.

Cubs vs Brewers Player Props (Oct 9)

MLB player props as of October 9 at DraftKings.

William Contreras over 1.5 total bases at +127 offers excellent value. He is batting .500 in his career against Matthew Boyd and has been a consistent offensive force for Milwaukee all season.

For the Cubs, Dansby Swanson’s hits line is set at 0.5. While the odds are juiced at -159, he averaged 0.91 hits per game during the season and will be a key part of the Cubs’ offensive plan against a tough right-hander. He has hit safely in four of six playoff games, including in Peralta’s first start (1-for-4 with a double off reliever Nick Mears).

Brewers vs Cubs Picks & Prediction for Game 4

• Brewers moneyline (-120)
• Under 7.5 (-130)
• Contreras over 1.5 total bases (+130)

The on-paper pitching advantage belongs to the Brewers, as Freddy Peralta’s strikeout ability far surpasses that of Matthew Boyd. Boyd’s career numbers against the current Brewers roster are alarming; key hitters like William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, and Andrew Vaughn have posted OPS numbers well over 1.000 against him. He will have to navigate a minefield to give the Cubs a chance.

The sharp money appears to be on Milwaukee, as well, which pushed the Brewers from early underdog to closing favorite.

While the over has hit in the last three head-to-head meetings between these clubs and in five of the Brewers’ last six playoff games, the weather at Wrigley coupled with the presence of Peralta on the mound has me leaning to the under.