Verlander, Astros Open as -140 Favorites vs Paxton, Yankees in ALCS Game 5 – Picks & Odds
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 31, 2020 at 2:24 pm EDTPublished:
- The Astros send 21-game winner Justin Verlander to the mound for Game 5 of the ALCS
- Trailing 3-1, James Paxton gets the ball for New York with the season on the line
- Sportsbooks have established Houston as the -140 chalk to close out the set
The Houston Astros are handing the ball to 21-game winner Justin Verlander for Game 5 of the ALCS. The Astros lead the best-of-seven series 3-1.
Sportsbooks have established Houston as the -140 favorite to close the series out Friday (Oct. 18) at Yankee Stadium in the Yankees vs Astros Game 5 odds.
Astros vs Yankees Game 5 ALCS Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | -140 | -1.5 (+120) | Over 8.0 (+100) |
| New York Yankees | +130 | +1.5 (-140) | Under 8.0 (-120) |
*Odds taken 10/18/19.
The Astros last won the World Series in 2017, after eliminating the Yankees in the ALCS.
Astros Firing On All Cylinders
Not only does Houston hold a 3-1 stranglehold on the series with Verlander on the mound, the Astros still have 20-game winner and MLB strikeout leader Gerrit Cole in reserve if they don’t get it done in Game 5. Cole is 19-0 in his last 19 decisions.
Masahiro Tanaka was the Yankees’ postseason ace but the Astros slayed that dragon in Game 4. Tanaka, who combined with three relievers for a 7-0 shutout win in Game 1, was chased after allowing four runs in five innings, ending his four-game postseason winning streak.
It was Tanaka’s first playoff loss since Game 1 of the 2017 ALCS against Houston. Tanaka is 5-3 in the postseason but 2-3 against the Astros.
In MLB best-of-seven postseason series history, teams taking a 3-1 lead have won 73 of 86 series (85 percent). Under the current 2-3-2 format, teams going ahead 3-1 and holding home-field advantage in the series, as Houston does, have carried on to win 39 of 46 series (85 percent).
Houston Can Hit
While the starting rotation gets most of the love and attention in Houston, it shouldn’t be overlooked how well the Astros hit the baseball.
That was displayed magnificently in Game 4. Both George Springer and Carlos Correa clouted three-run homers, and when that occurs in the postseason, good things happen for the Astros.
The @astros crush dingers.#MLBTonight | #ALCS | #TakeItBack pic.twitter.com/djEXZSL8xs
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 18, 2019
Houston is 6-0 in the playoffs with Springer and Correa both go deep in the same game.
It was Springer’s game-tying homer in Game 2 of this series that set the stage for Correa’s walk-off solo shot in the 11th inning of Houston’s 3-2 win.
Where It All Started For Verlander
The fist time Verlander found himself on baseball’s biggest stage, it was at Yankee Stadium.
Starting for the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of the 2006 ALDS, Verlander went seven innings but didn’t figure in the decision in a 4-3 Tigers triumph.
Big Papi on Yankees facing Justin Verlander in Game 5:
“They’re facing their Daddy tomorrow.”
We shall see. #ALCS
— Ryan Field (@RyanFieldABC) October 18, 2019
In seven career postseason starts against the Yankees, Verlander is 4-0, and his team is 6-1 in his starts. The lone loss was at Yankee Stadium in Game 1 of the 2011 ALDS with the Tigers.
Verlander is 6-3 in 10 career ALCS starts.
Yankees About To Get Clipped
The Yankees, who send James Paxton to the hill, are 1-2 all-time in series when they’ve trailed 3-1. They rallied to win the 1958 World Series from the Milwaukee Braves after falling behind 3-1,
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Yanks are 4-17 overall, and 1-6 in this century in series when they’ve faced elimination. But they are 25-21 in games in which they’ve faced a win or go home situation. That includes a 5-5 slate since 2000.
The Yankees had not lost back-to-back home games against the same team since April 2nd and 3rd … until tonight. pic.twitter.com/NdUanyOasu
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 18, 2019
The Bronx Bombers are 5-3 in ALCS games where they’ve faced elimination.
To win this series, all the Yankees need to do is capture three straight games, the last two on the road. The 2016 World Series champion Chicago Cubs are the only team in MLB history to ever accomplish this feat.
Pick: Houston Astros (-140)
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Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
