Final UFC 316 Predictions: Updated Odds & Best Bets

• UFC 316 takes place Saturday, June 7th at the Prudential Center in Newark
• Betting lines have shifted since opening with significant movement in several fights
• Check out the latest UFC 316 odds movement and our final predictions below

As UFC 316 approaches, the betting market has spoken loud and clear. Since our early predictions dropped, we’ve seen notable line movement across the card, with the Holland-Luque welterweight bout seeing the most dramatic shift. Ariane da Silva’s six-pound weight miss on Friday has also thrown a wrench into the prelims.

The main event rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley has tightened slightly, while Kayla Harrison’s odds to dethrone Julianna Peña have ballooned to astronomical levels.

Let’s dive into the updated UFC 316 odds and see where the smart money is landing for Saturday night in Newark.

Final UFC 316 Predictions

With fight night here and the lines settling, here are my top plays for the UFC 316 pay-per-view.

Best Bet: Patchy Mix Wins by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+180 at DraftKings)

The former Bellator champ makes his UFC debut as a slight favorite, but the value lies in how he wins. Mix owns 15 finishes in 20 career wins, including 13 submissions. He’s a suffocating grappler who makes opponents quit.

Mario Bautista’s seven-fight win streak is impressive, but he’s never faced a submission specialist of Mix’s caliber. In his last outing, Bautista failed on all 10 takedown attempts against Jose Aldo. Against a bigger, stronger grappler in Mix, those defensive issues spell trouble.

Look for Mix to drag this to the mat and find a choke in the middle rounds. The +180 price on a finish is excellent value for a fighter who’s ended 75% of his career wins early.

Value Play: Sean O’Malley (+230 at DraftKings)

I know, I know. I leaned toward Dvalishvili in my early predictions, and nothing has fundamentally changed about this matchup. But at +230, O’Malley presents value as a live dog.

The former champ claims he’s made serious lifestyle changes – no more weed, no social media distractions, and an improved camp focused entirely on wrestling defense.

While I still favor Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure, O’Malley only needs to land one clean shot to change everything. He won rounds in their first fight and was dealing with a torn labrum. If you’re looking for an upset special, this is your spot.

Other UFC 316 Main Card Final Predictions & Best Bets:

• Kayla Harrison (-625) is too expensive on the moneyline; bet Harrison by submission (+140) instead
• Joe Pyfer (-395) should finish Gastelum but the odds have shifted; consider fight goes over 2.5 rounds (-130)
• Kevin Holland vs Vicente Luque under 1.5 rounds (+140) in what should be pure violence

Harrison’s line has moved from -625 all the way out to -750 at some books, making her moneyline unplayable. However, Pena’s terrible 23% takedown defense and Harrison’s Olympic-level judo create a perfect storm for a submission. The +225 price offers solid value for how this fight likely ends.

The Pyfer-Gastelum line has also widened considerably, pushing me off the knockout prop. Gastelum has never been finished by strikes in 29 professional fights. While Pyfer should win, expecting him to be the first to knock out Kelvin at -395 is asking a lot.

Holland-Luque screams first-round fireworks. Both men are coming off finishes, both have suspect chins at this stage, and Holland fights like a maniac when he smells blood. Someone’s getting slept early.

Updated UFC 316 Odds

The most interesting movement comes in the Holland-Luque fight, where Vicente has gone from nearly 2-to-1 underdog to just +160. Smart money recognized the initial line was too wide for a dangerous veteran fighting in his home state against an inconsistent Holland.

Meanwhile, the main event has tightened slightly as O’Malley backers emerge from the woodwork. Some books have Dvalishvili as low as -285, compared to the -310 we saw earlier in the week.

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Odds as of June 7th, 2025 at DraftKings. Lock in your UFC 316 bets with a DraftKings promo code.

The prelims have also seen dramatic shifts. Ariane da Silva opened at +350 against Wang Cong but has ballooned to +410 after missing weight by six pounds. That’s a massive red flag for her conditioning heading into a three-round fight.

In the heavyweight bout, Serghei Spivac has gone from -155 to -142 against Waldo Cortes-Acosta, as bettors remember that “Salsa Boy” has been competitive against lower-level competition and could make this ugly.

Enjoy the fights and bet responsibly! For more UFC 316 action, check out the best UFC betting apps and latest fighter props.