Final UFC 319 Predictions & Odds: Du Plessis vs Chimaev Main Card Picks
By Brady Trettenero in Mixed Martial Arts News
Published:
- UFC 319 goes down Saturday, August 16th, at the United Center in Chicago
- Betting lines have shifted since opening, with the Du Plessis vs Chimaev main event seeing major movement
- Check out our final UFC 319 predictions and latest odds movement below
The UFC 319 odds have been on the move since Monday. After posting our early predictions, Chimaev’s price has dropped from -238 to -270 as money keeps pouring in. Meanwhile, the co-main has tightened up with Pico becoming less of a heavy favorite against Murphy.
The main event props paint a clear picture. DraftKings reports that 53% of bets are on Chimaev by submission, while just 14% are backing Du Plessis to keep his belt. The public clearly thinks this ends on the mat.
Let’s look at where the smart money went this week as we make our final UFC 319 predictions.
Final UFC 319 Predictions
The lines have settled heading into Saturday night. Here are my final plays for UFC 319.
UFC 319 Best Bet: Chimaev by Submission (+160 at Caesars)
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I gave out this play at +275 odds early in the week, and I’m sticking with it despite the price drop. More than half the betting handle is on Chimaev’s submission prop, and for good reason. You can still find some value, as Caesars is offering a bet boost at +160 odds.
Du Plessis has a 50% takedown defense rate. That’s trouble against someone who ragdolls middleweights for fun. Chimaev’s wrestling isn’t just good; it’s deadly. He gets on top and stays there until someone taps out or the ref comes in.
Yes, there are valid questions about Chimaev’s gas tank. But his work with Sam Calavitta should help, and more importantly, he won’t need five rounds if he gets the takedown early. The champ is tough, but Chimaev’s rear-naked choke is a different beast.
The total moved from under 2.5 at -125 to -115, showing some late money on a longer fight. I’m not buying it. I’m predicting the UFC 319 main event ends early with Chimaev’s hand raised.
UFC 319 Expert Pick: Lerone Murphy ML (+142 at DraftKings)
The co-main event betting line has seen some minor yet notable movement. Pico opened at -185 and now sits at -170, while Murphy went from +154 to +142. The market’s actually coming back toward Murphy after the initial Pico hype.
Murphy is undefeated for a reason, and bettors are realizing he is undervalued. Murphy’s takedown defense sits at 54%, which looks bad until you realize he’s beaten better wrestlers than Pico and kept winning. The guy knows how to survive bad spots and steal rounds.
Pico is making his UFC debut after not fighting for 18 months. That’s a lot of pressure and rust all at once. Murphy, on the other hand, has been active, beating Josh Emmett and Dan Ige recently. Experience matters, especially when the total has moved from -140 to -215 to go over 2.5 rounds.
Murphy’s cardio and elusive movement should frustrate Pico as the fight wears on. I gave out the Murphy upset at +154 odds, but I’m still recommending you play this undefeated fighter at his updated +142 price.
Other UFC 319 Main Card Final Predictions & Best Bets:
- Carlos Prates by KO/TKO (-110) remains solid even after moving from our early number. Neal drifted from +205 to +164, but Prates still has the power advantage.
- Michael Page by decision (+120) actually got better since we grabbed it at +105. Cannonier went from +160 to +170 as the market realized MVP’s style will frustrate him.
- Kai Asakura by KO/TKO (+180) improved from our +125 call. Elliott’s two-year layoff at age 38 is a real problem.
Late money came in on Gerald Meerschaert, which shifted his odds from +195 to +180 against Michal Oleksiejczuk. The submission prop at +450 we highlighted Monday still looks great given Oleksiejczuk’s history of getting choked out.
Updated UFC 319 Odds
Odds as of August 16th, 2025 at DraftKings. Lock in your UFC 319 bets with a DraftKings promo code.
There was some interesting movement in the co-main event. Pico went from -185 to -170, and Murphy went from +154 to +142. The market is actually correcting itself after the initial excitement over Pico. Murphy at plus money is still great value for a guy who never loses.
The main event tells you everything about where the money went. Chimaev dropped 32 points as bettors backed his wrestling. With over half the handle on him winning by submission, the books had to adjust. Even at +160 on Caesars (with the boost), the submission prop has value if you believe in Chimaev’s grappling.
One thing to watch: if Du Plessis survives round one, his live odds will explode. The champ has championship cardio, and Chimaev has never been past three rounds. But banking on Chimaev to fade is risky when he’s this close to gold.
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Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
