NBA Player Props to Target – Today’s Best A.I. NBA Picks from Model That +3.02 Units

• Our A.I. is 17-13 (+3.02 units) on NBA player props this season
• Wednesday, Oct 29, brings a huge ten-game slate of NBA games
• See our A.I. NBA player-prop picks and lines to target today

A solid start to the NBA season continued for our internal A.I. last night, when it went 4-for-5 and improved its record to 17-13 on NBA player props (+3.02 units).

Wednesday’s NBA slate is stacked with another ten games, starting with Rockets vs Raptors at 6:30 pm ET and culminating with Grizzlies vs Suns at 10:00 pm ET. I have asked our A.I. to provide its top NBA player prop to bet in each of the 11 games.

The table, below, sets out the A.I.’s pick for each game, plus the book with the best odds on that prop. Under the table, find the A.I.’s rationale for each bet, plus one-click options to tail the picks.

A.I. NBA Prop Picks Today (Oct 29)

For the fourth straight day, the A.I. has exclusively picked over bets. As I mentioned yesterday, it did take an under bet the first day I went through this exercise, so it’s aware that unders exist. But it’s performing well enough, so I’m not going to get too concerned about the lack of variety just yet.

Odds as of 11:42 am ET. Claim the top sportsbook promos to get a bonus for today’s NBA games.

If you want to find the best available lines for other players, bookmark SBD’s NBA player props page, which includes subsections for NBA player points props, NBA rebound props, NBA assist props, and more.

HOU Rockets vs TOR Raptors Player Prop Pick: Sengun Over 6.5 Assists

A.I. rationale: “The most appealing value on the board lies with Alperen Sengun’s playmaking. With Fred VanVleet out for the season, Houston’s offense will increasingly flow through its star center. Sengun is one of the league’s best passing bigs, and he’ll be the primary hub for the Rockets tonight. Facing a Raptors team that may be without its starting center, Sengun will have the space to operate from the high post and find cutters for easy looks. Getting plus-money odds (available at +110 on FanDuel and MGM) for a player whose role is set to expand significantly presents excellent value.”

CLE Cavaliers vs BOS Celtics Player Prop Pick: Brown Over 1.5 Threes

A.I. rationale: “This line significantly underestimates Jaylen Brown’s expanded role and recent shooting excellence. With Jayson Tatum out, Brown becomes Boston’s offensive engine. Brown is averaging a 2.8 made threes per game on a blistering 47.8% shooting clip through the first four games of the season. Expect him to have the ultimate green light and cash this over early.”

ORL Magic vs DET Pistons Player Prop Pick: Duren Over 9.5 Rebounds

A.I. rationale: “Duren has dominated the glass at Little Caesars Arena, averaging 12.5 rebounds across his two home games compared to his 9.2 season mark. The matchup favors Duren’s production as Orlando generates plenty of rebounding opportunities through their rim-attacking offense. The Magic’s poor three-point shooting (29.1%) produces longer rebounds that favor athletic big men.”

ATL Hawks vs BKN Nets Player Prop Pick: Porziņģis Over 1.5 Threes

A.I. rationale: “This is a pristine matchup for Porziņģis to exploit from the perimeter. He has seamlessly integrated into the Hawks’ offense, launching 6.5 three-point attempts per game and connecting at an elite 53.8% clip through his first two contests. This volume and efficiency create a high floor against any opponent, but it becomes especially potent against Brooklyn.

The Nets’ perimeter defense has been nothing short of a disaster. They are allowing opponents to shoot a league-worst 46.0% from beyond the arc. For a stretch-five like Porziņģis, who will often be matched up against slower-footed bigs, this matchup is a dream. He will get clean looks in pick-and-pop situations orchestrated by Trae Young and should have no trouble converting against Brooklyn’s scrambling defense.”

SAC Kings vs CHI Bulls Player Prop Pick: Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds

A.I. rationale: “This selection targets Sacramento’s fundamental weakness on the glass against Chicago’s most reliable rebounder. The Kings allow opponents to secure 12.2 offensive rebounds per game while controlling just 44.8% of total rebounds, creating an ideal environment for Vucevic to dominate the paint.

Vucevic enters averaging 13.0 rebounds per game this season, with his home performance also strong. With Collins sidelined, Vucevic operates without frontcourt competition for rebounds, ensuring maximum opportunities to pad his stats.”

IND Pacers vs DAL Mavericks Player Prop Pick: Davis Over 1.5 Blocks

A.I. rationale: With Pascal Siakam shouldering Indiana’s offensive load and both Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, Davis becomes Dallas’s rim protector. Siakam’s aggressive paint attacks will generate multiple blocking opportunities for Davis, who must anchor the defense against a desperate Pacers squad. The statistical mismatch creates excellent value on this prop.”

POR Trail Blazers vs UTA Jazz Player Prop Pick: Markkanen Over 2.5 Threes

A.I. rationale: “This wager targets the game’s most exploitable matchup, pitting Markkanen’s elite three-point shooting against Portland’s poor perimeter defense. The Blazers allow opponents to shoot 39.7% from deep (third-worst in the NBA), while Markkanen enters with strong three-point shooting (42.4%).
The statistical trends strongly favor this over. Markkanen has cleared 2.5 made threes in all three games this season (hitting at least four triples in each one).

At home, Markkanen becomes even more dangerous, converting threes at a 50.0% clip that suggests he’ll easily surpass the 2.5 threshold against Portland’s generous perimeter defense. The -145 price reflects market confidence, but the underlying data supports this premium.”

NO Pelicans vs DEN Nuggets Player Prop Pick: Gordon Over 16.5 Points

A.I. rationale: “Aaron Gordon is playing with phenomenal confidence and efficiency, making this line feel a full two to three points too low. He is currently averaging 25.3 points per game on a 78.2% True Shooting Percentage. While that level of production is unsustainable, he doesn’t need to maintain it to cruise past this number.

The matchup and situation are ideal. The Pelicans’ defense has been porous, carrying a 119.0 Defensive Rating (25th). Gordon scored 17 points in his only home game so far this season.

While he will have his hands full defensively with Zion Williamson, Gordon’s offensive role in Denver’s system is secure. Against a struggling Pelicans defense, expect Gordon’s hyper-efficient scoring to continue.”

LA Lakers vs MIN Timberwolves Player Prop Pick: Gobert Over 10.5 Rebounds

A.I. rationale: “This selection directly targets the Lakers’ most glaring vulnerability. Los Angeles is 23rd in DREB% at just 66.0% (a number that would have put them dead-last last season). Gobert is averaging 3.5 offensive rebounds per game, and has been 3.3 or higher in each of the last eight seasons, creating perfect conditions for one of the league’s premier rebounders.

With Minnesota’s offense relying more heavily on Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels, additional missed shots create more rebounding opportunities.”

MEM Grizzlies vs PHX Suns Player Prop Pick: Jackson Jr Over 1.5 Blocks

A.I. rationale: “This represents pure value on one of the league’s elite rim protectors. Getting plus-money odds for Jackson to record at least two blocks is an opportunity that demands attention. As Memphis’s defensive anchor, Jackson will face a Suns offense relying heavily on Booker’s creation and attacking mentality, providing ample opportunities for help-side defense and shot-blocking. At +140, the price is too attractive to ignore for a player whose primary defensive role centers on altering and rejecting shots.”

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