Warriors vs Rockets Game 5 Predictions, Picks, Player Props & Odds
By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Golden State Warriors can close out the Houston Rockets in Game 5 tonight
- Jimmy Butler is listed as probable due to a pelvis injury
- See the Warriors vs Rockets Game 5 predictions, player-prop picks, and best odds
Holding a commanding 3-1 lead in their best-of-seven first-round series, the Golden State Warriors (48-34, 24-17 away) can eliminate the Houston Rockets (52-30, 29-12 home) in Game 5 on Wednesday night at the Toyota Center in Houston at 6:40 pm CT/7:40 pm ET.
The Rockets are home chalk to avoid elimination and force a Game 6 back in the Bay Area on Friday. Houston is favored by as many as four points in Wednesday’s Warriors vs Rockets odds and as short as -180 on the moneyline in Wednesday’s NBA odds.
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Picks & Predictions
- Rockets 1H -2.5 (-110) at Caesars
- Jalen Green under 16.5 points (-110) at bet365
- VanVleet over 13.5 points (-120) at DraftKings
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My two picks for Warriors/Rockets Game 5 are somewhat uncorrelated. First, I’m betting the Rockets to win the first half by at least three points. Second, I’m betting the mercurial Jalen Green to continue slumping.
Taking the latter first, Green is in an ugly slump and has been for three-quarters of this series. The 23-year-old former second-overall pick had just seven points on 3-of-15 shooting in 31 minutes in Game 1, nine points on 4-of-11 shooting in 39 minutes in Game 3, and eight points on 3-of-8 shooting in just 25 minutes in Game 4 (with five turnovers and just one assist).
Green’s awful Game 4 performance was enough for head coach Ime Udoka to plunk him on the bench for much of the second half. Unless he shows immediate improvement in Game 5 tonight, it’s likely that he’ll see decreased minutes once again.
His total has been lowered two full points from Game 4 (from 18.5 to 16.5) but that’s not low enough for my liking. I won’t be the least bit surprised if the cold-shooting Green stays in single-digits for the fourth time this series.
Yet, I’m still betting the Rockets to cover the first-half spread as 2.5-point chalk. At this point, basically every NBA bettor knows the old saw about teams coming home down 2-0 in a series. This is the corollary of that for higher seeds: Houston will be in full desperation mode and there are decades of evidence about how teams tend to respond to that adversity in the postseason in front of their home crowd.
While Green has been flailing, both Alperen Sengun and veteran Fred VanVleet have picked up the slack. VanVleet had by far his best game of the series so far in Game 4, with 25 points and six assists on 8-of-12 shooting from beyond the arc. Sengun had a game-high 31 points, 10 rebounds, and five dimes.
With Jimmy Butler noticeably impacted by a lingering pelvis injury, I fully expect the Rockets to control the first half of Game 5 on Wednesday night.
HOU Rockets vs GS Warriors Player Props
NBA player props from DraftKings on April 30.
After being held to a series-low 17 points in Game 4, Steph Curry’s point total has been dropped from 26.5 to 25.5 O/U, though that’s still by far the highest number on the board. Curry is averaging 26.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 6.0 APG in the playoffs so far. Sengun (22.3 PPG, 11.5 APG, 4.3 APG in the playoffs) leads the Rockets once again with a total of 20.5 O/U, up one point from Game 4 when he had a game-high 31.
Sengun also has the highest rebound total at 10.5 O/U, which is three rebounds higher than any other player. Curry and Butler are tied for the highest assist total at 5.5 O/U.
Warriors vs Rockets Odds for Game 5
The Warriors/Rockets point spread still has a half-point range across sportsbooks. Most have it at Houston laying a full four points at this stage, but DraftKings is still offering Houston -3.5 at -110 odds, making it the best option for Rockets ATS bettors. Caesars, BetMGM, and bet365 all Golden State +4.0 at -110 odds.
On the moneyline, Caesars has the longest price on the Warriors to win straight-up, setting the Dubs at +148 to close out the series tonight. The longest Houston moneyline is -162 at DraftKings.
The total is 204.0 with -110 odds each way at almost every sportsbook. The lone exception is BetMGM, which has raised the O/U to 204.5 with -115 juice on the under.
Wednesday’s NBA public betting trends show an interesting divide. The Warriors are getting 64% of moneyline handle but on just 43% of the moneyline wagers. The public also slightly favors Golden State to cover, putting 53% of ATS handle and 59% of ATS tickets on the Warriors.
The public’s strongest lean in this game is the over, which has attracted 68% of O/U handle as of 11:09 am ET.
The winner of the Houston/Golden State series will advance to face either the #6 Minnesota Timberwolves or #3 Los Angeles Lakers in the second round of the NBA playoff bracket. The Timberwolves lead the Lakers 3-1 and, like Golden State, can close out the series on the road tonight.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
